Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Texas Tech vs. LSU Predictions, Odds

  • January 30, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Baton Rouge, Louisiana for a Big 12 vs. SEC game against the LSU Tigers. Tip is set for 2 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN2.



Texas Tech-LSU Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Texas Tech -2
  • Money-Line: Texas Tech -170 LSU +150
  • Total: 150.5

Odds Subject to Change

Texas Tech is the road favorite for this matchup, entering with a -2-point spread. Texas Tech has only covered six of its last 16 games this season. LSU is 6-9 on the ATS this year, as both teams struggle to cover more times than not.

The point total is a high 150.5, which could go either way based on Texas Tech's defense and LSU's offense. The Red Raiders are split on the point total, going 8-8 this season. LSU is has gone OVER in 10 of 15 games this season.

Betting Analysis – Texas Tech Red Raiders

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-5
  • ATS: 6-10
  • SU - Home: 8-3
  • SU - Away: 3-2
  • O/U: 8-8

Texas Tech is coming off a close loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers, as Mac McClung put on a clinic. His point total average has jumped to over 17 per game, which is a team-high. Between he and Terrence Shannon, this is a difficult offense to contain.

Texas Tech is mainly known for defense, allowing just 61.7 points per game which ranks 15th nationally. Also, the Red Raiders have the 20th-most efficient defense with an 89.3 rating. However, the Red Raiders offense is often overlooked.

They average 75.5 points per game which ranks 95th nationally, while their offensive efficiency rating is 109.3 which ranks 57th in the country. Kyler Edwards gives this offense an extra kick, but the main catalyst for Texas Tech's offense is actually the free throw line.

Texas Tech ranks 183rd in field goal percentage (44%), ranks 227th in two-point percentage (49.2%) and 193rd in three-point percentage (33.2%). However, Texas Tech attempts the 10th-most free throws per game (24.6) and makes the ninth-most per game (17.7). They also average 12.4 offensive rebounds per game which ranks 36th nationally.

Looking at the stats, it seems second-chance points will be key for Texas Tech in this road game. Getting the offensive board only to be fouled seems to be the formula (intentional or not) from Texas Tech. This is actually a glaring issue for LSU.

Betting Analysis – LSU Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-4
  • ATS: 6-9
  • SU - Home: 9-1
  • SU - Away: 2-3
  • O/U: 10-4-1

The reason Texas Tech's offensive rebounding is so worrisome for LSU is because the Tigers are terrible at the rim on defense. The Tigers only average 2.2 blocks per game, which ranks 252nd in the nation. They do rebound well though, so they have to snag all rebounds against Texas Tech to prevent easy second-chance opportunities.

If Texas Tech is driving to the rim then they will be difficult to stop, but the LSU strength is point scoring more than it is rebounding. This game will feature a top defense vs. a top offense, as LSU features the 13th-best offense in the nation. They average over 80 points per game with the 49th-best field goal percentage (47.3%), the 32nd-best two-point percentage (55.9%) and the 32nd-best free throw percentage (76.3%).

As reliant as Texas Tech is at the free throw line, LSU can compete at the charity stripe as well. The Tigers attempt the 17th-most free throws per game (23.9) and make the seventh-most per game (18.3). Looking through all the stats, it seems this game will come down to second-chance points and free throw conversions.

That makes Cameron Thomas and Darius Days the two most important Tigers on Saturday. Thomas shoots 89% from the charity stripe, while Days averages the most offensive rebounds for LSU. Trendon Watford is known for his scoring, but his team-high 5.6 defensive rebounds per game will need to be on full display as well.

Inside the Stats – Texas Tech Red Raiders

  • PS/G: 75.5 (95th)
  • PA/G: 61.7 (15th)
  • Off Rtg: 109.3 (57th)
  • Def Rtg: 89.3 (20th)

Inside the Stats – LSU Tigers

  • PS/G: 83.7 (13th)
  • PA/G: 73.9 (262nd)
  • Off Rtg: 113.9 (20th)
  • Def Rtg: 100.6 (218th)

Key Players to Watch

  • TT - Mac McClung (17.2 PPG)
  • TT - Terrence Shannon (12.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
  • LSU - Cameron Thomas (22.1 PPG)
  • LSU - Trendon Watford (18.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG)

Texas Tech-LSU Predictions

Texas Tech is the more reliable team, but LSU at home is tough to pick against. This is a tough game in general to bet on, so let's move to the odds which point towards Texas Tech failing to cover the spread.

It's difficult to bet against Tech here, so if you're unwilling to back the inconsistency that comes with LSU then go to the point total. 150.5 is a bit high. Meeting in the middle with LSU's offense and Texas Tech's defense makes the most sense, leaving both teams around the 70 point margin.

  • Score Prediction: Texas Tech 75 LSU 74
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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