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College Basketball

UNLV vs. Nevada Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

  • January 31, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

A big Mountain West rivalry game sees the UNLV Rebels take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Tip for the first of a two game series is set for 9:30 p.m. (ET) and will air on FS1.

BETTING RESOURCES

WHERE TO BET UNLV-NEVADA

UNLV-Nevada Betting Odds

  • Spread: Nevada -2
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 144.5

Odds Subject to Change

Nevada enters as the home favorite, given a small -2-point spread. The Wolf Pack have covered 11 of 16 games this season, while UNLV has covered six of 11.

The point total is set at 144.5, which both schools are essentially split on. Nevada is 8-7-1 on the O/U, while UNLV is 5-6 - as the schools are a combined 13-13-1.

Betting Analysis – UNLV Rebels

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-7
  • ATS: 6-4-1
  • SU - Home: 5-4
  • SU - Away: 1-3
  • O/U: 5-6

UNLV was picked to finish near the top of the Mountain West this season. They will be one of the better teams, rattling off five wins before running into Utah State a second time last game.

This is an improving club, with high expectations to begin the season. There's experience between the top two scorers in Bryce Hamilton and David Jenkins, Jr.. Hamilton averages about 18 points per game, but is questionable.

UNLV's strength is on the defensive side, where the Rebels allow 66.5 points per game (80th in the nation). They don't block many shots, but they average 7.5 steals per game which ranks 90th in the country. They also shoot the three-pointer extremely well.

UNLV averages 9.8 three-pointers a game (ranks 24th nationally) and hits 36.2% of their shots from beyond the arc (ranks 78th nationally). They do struggle to score from literally every other part of the field (including free throw line), so it seems the defense leading to open threes in transition is the best formula to win for UNLV.

Hamilton's presence does become the deciding factor, no matter how you analyze the statistics. Hamilton leads the team in points per game and steals per game, while averaging 3.7 assists per game. His status is necessary to know if you plan on wagering this game.

Betting Analysis – Nevada Wolf Pack

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-7
  • ATS: 11-5
  • SU - Home: 6-2
  • SU - Away: 4-5
  • O/U: 8-7-1

One thing we know about Steve Alford's club is that they cover the spread, doing so 11 times this season. Also, we know Nevada can beat UNLV at the charity stripe, especially at home where foul calls tend to lean in that direction.

Nevada hits 16.4 free throws per game (ranks 27th nationally) and hits 75.4% of their shots from the charity stripe (ranks 44th nationally). Grant Sherfield gets to the line more than any other Nevada player, 6.2 times a game and the team's leading scorer. The top two scorers for Nevada average over 85% from the line, so getting into the bonus against Nevada is ill-advised.

Zane Meeks leads the team in rebounding, but Nevada also has Warren Washington averaging just 0.1 less than Meeks. Between the two and Desmond Cambridge, Nevada averages 28.1 defensive rebounds per game which ranks 46th nationally.


Inside the Stats – UNLV Rebels

  • PS/G: 73.2 (148th)
  • PA/G: 66.5 (80th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.8 (102nd)
  • Def Rtg: 96.1 (113th)

Inside the Stats – Nevada Wolf Pack

  • PS/G: 72.1 (177th)
  • PA/G: 67.8 (118th)
  • Off Rtg: 103.3 (153rd)
  • Def Rtg: 97.1 (138th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UNLV - Bryce Hamilton (18.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
  • UNLV - David Jenkins, Jr. (15.8 PPG)
  • NEV - Grant Sherfield (18.5 PPG, 5.5 APG)
  • NEV - Desmond Cambridge (15.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG)

UNLV-Nevada Predictions

Nevada is the slightly better team and playing at home, but the game comes down to Hamilton's status. Assuming he plays, Nevada should still win at home. The -2-point spread is a bit kind, basically a SU pick. Feel free to back Nevada who should win by five points even if Hamilton is playing.

The point total is a bit tricky, and recommend staying away from. But if you must wager this market, then consider going UNDER. The trends can be tossed, 13-13-1 is no help at all. The points scored and points allowed are relatively the same for both schools, so using those as measuring sticks you can take the UNDER. The spread is the best bet, though.

  • Score Prediction: Nevada 74 UNLV 68
  • Best Bets: Nevada -2

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