Villanova vs. St. John’s Predictions, Odds

  • February 3, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Villanova Wildcats travel to New York to take on a surging St. John's Red Storm team. Tip for this Big East battle is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and will air on the CBS Sports Network.



Villanova-St. John's Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Villanova -8
  • Money-Line: Villanova -450 St. John's +370
  • Total: 151.5

Odds Subject to Change

Villanova is the obvious road favorite, given an -8-point spread against the surging Red Storm. The Wildcats have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games, while St. John's has covered in 10 of 18 games.

The point total is a high 151.5, as both schools tend to go OVER the total. Villanova is 7-5 on the O/U this season, while St. John's has gone OVER in 11 of 17 games.

Betting Analysis – Villanova Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-1
  • ATS: 8-4
  • SU - Home: 4-1
  • SU - Away: 7-0
  • O/U: 7-5

Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are an elite dynamic duo. They both average over 15 points per game, with Gillespie leading the team in assists per game (4.7) and Robinson-Earl averaging 6.6 boards.

Jay Wright's club features the sixth-most efficient offense in the nation and scores the 47th-most points per game. It's not just Gillespie and Robinson-Earl either. Justin Moore and Caleb Daniels average 11 points or more per game, as Jermaine Samuels averages about 10 points and seven boards a game.

The weakness for Villanova is the defense, ranking 337th or worst in steals and blocks per game to go along with an efficiency rating of 99.9 (201st). With all that said, the Wildcats only allow 67.2 points per game which ranks 98th nationally. The offense is the weapon for Villanova though, a highly efficient offense as the rating shows.

Villanova averages 9.9 three-pointers per game which ranks 20th nationally, and converts 37.5% of their three-pointers which ranks 46th. They shoot the 67th-best two-point percentage (53.8%) and have the 34th-best free throw percentage (76%).

They shoot 46.6% from the field overall (61st nationally) and average 15.4 assists per game (71st nationally). This team is tough to stop, but the defense is vulnerable despite a low points allowed average. Besides the dreadful blocks and steals per game, this team ranks 235th in total rebounds per game. The Wildcats are tough to beat, but beatable if facing a high-powered offense with dominant big men.

Betting Analysis – St. John's Red Storm

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-7
  • ATS: 10-8
  • SU - Home: 7-2
  • SU - Away: 4-5
  • O/U: 11-6-1

Does St. John's have a high-powered offense and/or a dominant big man? High powered offense, yes. St. John's scores 79.6 points per game, which is more than Villanova, and ranks 42nd nationally. Also, the Red Storm make 22.3 two-pointers per game (ranks 16th nationally) and makes 29.4 field goals per game (ranks 28th nationally).

They also shoot a decent free throw percentage (73.4% ranks 89th), while averaging an eye-staggering 9.9 assists per game which ranks third nationally. Posh Alexander leads the Red Storm in the dominant assist category, a freshman guard who plays like a senior leader.

He also averages 11 points per game, as four players average 10 or more in total. Julian Champagnie averages 19.8 points per game, which leads the team. He also leads St. John's in rebounding, which brings us to the second part of the question. Does St. John's have a dominant big man?

No, not really. Champagnie is the team leader in rebounding, but not a big man. Someone will have to neutralize Robinson-Earl, which may come down to Isaih Moore. Either way, St. John's doesn't rebound particularly well and doesn't have a true big man to match.

They also allow an awful 77.1 points per game, which ranks 305th nationally. It will be tough for St. John's to slow Villanova down with no post presence, but they have the tools and scoring ability to maintain pace with the Wildcats. Alexander's passing and rim penetration must be good, but St. John's will rely on steals to transitional buckets to keep pace as they usually do.

Inside the Stats – Villanova Wildcats

  • PS/G: 79 (47th)
  • PA/G: 67.2 (98th)
  • Off Rtg: 117.5 (6th)
  • Def Rtg: 99.9 (201st)

Inside the Stats – St. John's Red Storm

  • PS/G: 79.6 (42nd)
  • PA/G: 77.1 (305th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.2 (111th)
  • Def Rtg: 102 (237th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NOVA - Collin Gillespie (15.5 PPG, 4.7 APG)
  • NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG)
  • STJ - Julian Champagnie (19.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG)
  • STJ - Posh Alexander (11 PPG, 4.4 APG)

Villanova-St. John's Predictions

St. John's should keep this game interesting, playing at home with a solid coaching staff. The eight points should be enough for Villanova to cover, but the point total should go OVER.

Combined, the schools are 18-11-1 on the O/U - favoring the OVER by seven games. Play the smart odds here, and assume one of the schools (probably St. John's) allows 80 points to its adversary. Regardless which school touches 80, the other should be within a double-digit point total.

  • Score Prediction: Villanova 81 St. John's 71
  • Best Bets: OVER

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