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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:47 PM

Boise State vs. Nevada Predictions, Odds


  • February 5, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Boise State Broncos hit the road to take on the Nevada Wolfpack in a huge Mountain West Conference game on Friday. Tip is set for 9 p.m. (ET) and will air on FS1.

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WHERE TO BET BOISE STATE-NEVADA

Boise State-Nevada Betting Odds

  • Spread: Boise State -3
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 145.5

Odds Subject to Change

Boise State opens as the road favorite, given a -3-point spread. Both schools have been excellent in covering the spread this season. Boise State has covered 10 of 15 games, while Nevada has covered 13 of 18 games this season.

The point total is set at 145.5, which could go either way. Boise State is 8-7 on the O/U this season, while Nevada is 9-8-1. Combining the school's O/U record, it's essentially split at 17-15-1.

Betting Analysis – Boise State Broncos

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-2
  • ATS: 10-4-1
  • SU - Home: 7-0
  • SU - Away: 7-2
  • O/U: 8-7

Boise State has been nothing short of superb this season. The Broncos are one of the most well-balanced teams in the entire nation. Boise State averages 79.9 points per game which ranks 37th nationally, while also allowing 63.1 points per game which ranks 33rd overall.

They feature four players who average a double-digit point total beginning with Derrick Alston. Alston sees over 16 points per game, while Agu Kigab sees over 13 points and over six rebounds per game. Mladen Armus leads the team in rebounding, averaging a near double-double with seven points and seven boards a game.

What makes Boise State's offense so dangerous is something quite simple, they make and take a ton of shots. The Broncos attempt 60.4 shots per game which ranks 94th nationally, along with taking 21.1 free throws per game which ranks 71st. What's impressive about the high total of attempted shots is that Boise State makes most of them, from anywhere.

The Broncos shoot 47.2% from the field (ranks 44th), they shoot 54.9% on two-point attempts (ranks 46th) and shoot 73.3% from the charity stripe (ranks 90th). Boise State only shoots 33.8% from three-point land, which ranks 159th. It's not terrible, but clearly the weakness for Boise State's offense lies beyond the arc.

It's not that Boise State can't make three-pointers (because they can), but forcing the Broncos to take outside shots gives opponents the best chance to beat them. In Boise State's loss to Colorado State a few games back, the Broncos attempted 23 three-pointers with only five hitting (21.7%). Look for Nevada to force three-pointers and shut down the easy buckets.

Betting Analysis – Nevada Wolfpack

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-7
  • ATS: 13-5
  • SU - Home: 8-2
  • SU - Away: 4-5
  • O/U: 9-8-1

Can Nevada win the inside game? It will be difficult, but the team does a few things well on the interior. Much like Boise State, Nevada gets to the free throw line and converts. The Wolfpack make 16.4 free throws per game (ranks 22nd), attempt 21.6 per game (ranks 55th), which equates a 75.9% free-throw percentage (ranks 37th).

Besides the free throw game, Nevada does well on rebounding missed shots from the opponent. The Woflpack average 28.1 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 38th nationally. This is huge if Nevada is able to force Boise into unwanted three-point attempts, as Nevada should be able to win the glass game from there.

Zane Meeks, Warren Washington, Desmond Cambridge and Robby Robinson all average 4.3 or more rebounds per game. Also, points and assist leader Grant Sherfield averages just under four rebounds per game with 3.8.

Nevada doesn't rely on one player to crash the glass, which seems disastrous for Boise State if they are missing their shot attempts. As stated, that occurs most frequently from the outside. If Nevada can force the three-point shots and snag the misses then they should be able to pull off a home upset.


Inside the Stats – Boise State Broncos

  • PS/G: 79.9 (37th)
  • PA/G: 63.1 (33rd)
  • Off Rtg: 112.4 (23rd)
  • Def Rtg: 88.8 (15th)

Inside the Stats – Nevada Wolfpack

  • PS/G: 73 (147th)
  • PA/G: 67.1 (90th)
  • Off Rtg: 105.2 (111th)
  • Def Rtg: 96.7 (121st)

Key Players to Watch

  • BSU - Derrick Alston (16.5 PPG)
  • BSU - Abu Kigab (13.5 PPG 6.1 RPG)
  • NEV - Grant Sherfield (18.3 PPG, 5.7 APG)
  • NEV - Desmond Cambridge (14.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG)

Boise State-Nevada Predictions

Although Nevada has a recipe for success to win this home game, playing inside a venue they find success in more times than not, the Boise State offense may be too much to handle. Nevada should be able to keep this game close throughout, but for as good as Nevada is shooting free throws and rebounding, they are too reliant on two players for a majority of their offensive production.

The Nevada defense will have a tough time holding Boise State to under 65 points, which is about where Nevada should top out at if the Broncos' 15th-best defense shows up to play. Go with the better team who has played tougher competition with more conviction, and take the chalk Broncos.

If you must bet the point total, consider the slight O/U 17-15-1 trends going OVER here. The thought is that Boise State should touch 70 regardless how Nevada fairs. With the Wolfpack at home though, giving them the benefit of the doubt to keep the game within the given point spread, should lean OVER. The spread seems to be the safest bet.

  • Score Prediction: Boise State 75 Nevada 71
  • Best Bets: Boise State -3

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