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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:46 PM

St. Bonaventure vs. VCU Predictions, Odds, Preview


Feb. 12, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies find themselves at the top of the A-10 standings. They take on the VCU Rams in a massive bubble game for this mid-major clash. Tip is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN2.

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St. Bonaventure-VCU Betting Odds

  • Spread: VCU -4
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 134.5

Odds Subject to Change

The VCU Rams enter as the home favorites, given a -4-point spread despite losing to St. Bonaventure already. The Rams are 10-8 on the ATS this season, while St. Bonaventure has covered the spread in seven of 12 games.

The point total is set at 134.5, which both schools slightly favor on the UNDER. VCU has gone UNDER the point total in 11 of 18 games, while St. Bonaventure has gone UNDER in eight of 12 games this season. The combined O/U for both schools is 11-19.

Betting Analysis – St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-2
  • ATS: 7-4-1
  • SU - Home: 6-0
  • SU - Away: 4-2
  • O/U: 4-8

The Bonnies are a quiet 10-2 this season, the most consistent team in the A-10 thus far. What's impressive about St. Bonaventure is the defense, only allowing 63 points per game which ranks 29th nationally.

Also, the Bonnies have the 65th-most efficient defense in the country, although the offense ranks within the country's top 80. Kyle Lofton is the leading scorer and facilitator, averaging 16 points per game to go along with 5.3 assists. The Bonnies also have four other players average two or more assists per game, tallying 15.2 per game which ranks 74th nationally.

The Bonnies also rebound very well, ranking 61st in offensive rebounds per game (11.8) and 74th in total rebounds per game (37.9). They feature four players who average 5.8 rebounds per game or more, beginning with Jaren Holmes who averages 14.7 points per game.

Dominick Welch and Jalen Adaway average over 11 points per game with 6.3 rebounds, but its Osun Osunniyi who leads the team in rebounds (9.3 per game) while also averaging 10.8 points per game. Osunniyi is a very crucial player for St. Bonaventure, averaging 2.4 blocks per game and essentially the only threat in that department.

The weakness for St. Bonaventure is the three-point shot. The Bonnies attempt 42 two-pointers per game (ranks 25th in nation), while making 20.9 per game (ranks 38th in nation). Those numbers are responsible for an efficient offense, but the Bonnies only shoot 33% from beyond the arc (ranks 202nd nationally).

They only attempt 16.7 three-pointers per game (ranks 330th in nation), while only connecting on 5.4 per game (ranks 322nd in nation). Not only does St. Bonaventure not elect to shoot the three-pointers, but when they do they often don't make it.

Welch was able to hit five against VCU earlier this season, so expect the Rams to force every Bonnie (especially Welch) into uncomfortable long-range shots.

Betting Analysis – VCU Rams

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-4
  • ATS: 10-8
  • SU - Home: 7-1
  • SU - Away: 7-3
  • O/U: 7-11

VCU plays just as good defense as St. Bonaventure, allowing just 65.1 points per game (ranks 54th nationally) while also posting a defensive efficiency rating of 90.3 (ranks 21st nationally). It begins with two players, Nah'Shon Hyland and Adrian Baldwin.

Both average 2.1 steals per game, while Jimmy Clark and Vince Williams average over a steal per game too. VCU is actually one of the best nationally, averaging 10.4 steals per game which ranks third in the nation. They also block the fifth-most shots per game nationally, averaging about six per game (5.7).

Corey Douglas and Hason Ward are mainly responsible for those numbers, with Ward averaging 2.4 and Douglas with 1.5. With the great defense VCU has, the offense isn't quite up to the same standard - although decent.

The Rams only have two players average a double-digit point total, Hyland averaging 19.2 and Williams with 10.9. There is a massive drop-off after that, with Levi Stockard averaging the next most points per game with 6.9. The best offense VCU has, however, is the free throw line.

VCU makes 14.7 free throws per game, which ranks 76th in the nation. They also shoot 75.9% from the charity stripe, which ranks 37th in the nation. They have won four straight games with the last loss coming at St. Bonaventure. Expect a hungry defense looking for revenge against the conference's (current) top team in this one.


Inside the Stats – St. Bonaventure Bonnies

  • PS/G: 71.8 (172nd)
  • PA/G: 63 (29th)
  • Off Rtg: 107.2 (79th)
  • Def Rtg: 94.1 (65th)

Inside the Stats – VCU Rams

  • PS/G: 73.7 (133rd)
  • PA/G: 65.1 (54th)
  • Off Rtg: 102.3 (170th)
  • Def Rtg: 90.3 (21st)

Key Players to Watch

  • BONN - Kyle Lofton (16 PPG, 5.3 APG)
  • BONN - Jaren Holmes (14.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG)
  • VCU - Nah'Shon Hyland (19.2 PPG)
  • VCU - Vince Williams (10.9 PPG, 5 RPG)

St. Bonaventure-VCU Predictions

The four-point spread sounds about right, as that's the exact spread most predictors have. With both schools managing to cover the spread well (combined 17-12-1 ATS), the point total is the top market to consider here.

The odds of the combined 11-19 O/U for both schools are too heavily favored in one corner to not consider. The point total, although a low 134.5, is worth going UNDER on based on the 11-19 record. With the UNDER you are playing the point total trends correctly at 11-19, while also respecting neither team allowing an average of over 65 points per game.

  • Score Prediction: VCU 69 St. Bonaventure 65
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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