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College Basketball

Arkansas vs. Missouri Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

Feb. 13, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Arkansas Razorbacks go on the road this Saturday to face the No. 10 Missouri Tigers in a SEC tilt. Game time on ESPN2 from Mizzou Arena is set for 4 p.m. (ET).

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Arkansas-Missouri Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Pick em
  • Money-Line: Arkansas -110 Missouri -110
  • Total: 149.5

Odds Subject to Change

This betting line for one of the tightest matchups on Saturday’s board opened as a pick em. The betting line for the total has been set at 149.5 points.

Arkansas has won five of its last six games straight-up with a one-point win over Kentucky on Tuesday as a one-point road underdog. It is 4-1 against the spread in its last five outings. The total has gone OVER in three of those five games.

A 13-point loss to Missouri on Jan. 2 as -6.5-point home favorites dropped the Razorbacks to 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings. The 149-point total ended as a PUSH after going OVER in the previous three meetings.

The Tigers’ SU three-game winning streak came to a sudden end with Wednesday’s 21-point road loss to Ole Miss as +2.5-point underdogs. They are now 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five games.

The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine contests. Missouri is 8-1 SU at home this season with a 5-4 mark ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of its last four home games.

Betting Analysis – Arkansas Razorbacks

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 15-5
  • ATS: 11-7-1
  • SU - Home: 12-1
  • SU - Away: 3-4
  • O/U: 11-7-1

Arkansas snapped an eight-game losing streak to Kentucky on Tuesday night behind guard Jalen Tate’s 15 points. Davonte Davis sealed the victory with a late-game steal.

Guard Moses Moody is the team’s leading scorer this season with 16.3 points per game. He is one of five players averaging at least 10 points a game. Forward Justin Smith leads the way in rebounds (6.5) and Tate tops the list in assists (4.4).

The Razorbacks are averaging 82.7 points a game but they have failed to reach that total in each of their last four games. They are shooting 45% from the field and 33.9% from three-point range.

This is one of the top rebounding teams in the SEC this season with 40.9 a game. The defense is holding opposing teams to 69.9 PPG.

Betting Analysis – Missouri Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-4
  • ATS: 10-7
  • SU - Home: 9-1
  • SU - Away: 4-3
  • O/U: 10-6-1

The 6-4 Tigers are a half game behind Arkansas in the conference standings with 11-1 Alabama leading the way. Tuesday’s stunning loss to Mississippi did not help the cause.

Guards’ Dru Smith and Xavier Pinson are each averaging 14.2 PPG. Smith is the better shooter of the two with a 44.8% field goal percentage. Forward Jeremiah Tilmon (12.8 points) and guard Mark Smith (10.1 points) round out the list of players scoring in double figures this season.

Missouri is averaging 73.8 PPG as a team and shooting 45.5% from the field. This number drops to 30.7% from three-point range.

Tilmon leads the Tigers in rebounds (7.8) as part of their 36.6 game average. On defense, they are allowing an average of 70.5 points a game. However, Missouri has allowed 80 points or more in three of their last five outings.


Inside the Stats – Arkansas Razorbacks

  • PS/G: 82.7 (12th)
  • PA/G: 69.9 (172nd)
  • Off Rtg: 109.6 (47th)
  • Def Rtg: 92.7 (43rd)

Inside the Stats – Missouri Tigers

  • PS/G: 73.8 (130th)
  • PA/G: 70.5 (188th)
  • Off Rtg: 103.9 (143rd)
  • Def Rtg: 99.2 (171st)

Key Players to Watch

  • ARK - Moses Moody (16.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG)
  • ARK - J.D. Notae (13.6 PPG)
  • MIZZ - Xavier Pinson (14.2 PPG)
  • MIZZ - Dru Smith (14.2 PPG)

Arkansas-Missouri Predictions

Missouri won the first meeting on the road with relative ease, but I expect a much tougher battle this time around. The Tigers are a hard team to figure out with a sloppy loss to Ole Miss coming off a huge upset against Alabama.

That opens the door to a SU play on Arkansas this Saturday on the money line. The first meeting ended as a PUSH on a closing total line of 149 points.

I'm going with the OVER this time around with each team relying more heavily on scoring points than playing defense.

  • Score Prediction: Arkansas 81 Missouri 79
  • Best Bets: Arkansas SU
  • Best Bets: OVER

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