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College Basketball

UConn vs. Xavier Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

Feb. 13, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Betting action in the Big East this Saturday starts off early with the Connecticut Huskies on the road against the Xavier Musketeers on FOX. Tip-off from Cintas Center is slated for 12 p.m.

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UConn-Xavier Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Xavier -3
  • Money-Line: Xavier -165 UConn +145
  • Total: 134.5

Odds Subject to Change

The opening betting spread for this game favors the Musketeers by three points at home. The total line has been opened at 134.5 points. Connecticut’s straight-up two-game losing streak dropped its Big East record to 5-5.

It has now failed to cover against the spread in three of its last five games. The total has gone OVER in three of those five contests as well.

The Huskies lost to Xavier last season by one point (75-74) while covering as five-point home underdogs. They are 3-2 SU playing on the road this season with a 4-1 mark ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of those five road games.

With 13-point road upset over Butler on Jan. 30, Xavier has a SU three-game winning streak as part of its 4-2 Big East record (SU and ATS). The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games.

The Musketeers are 9-1 SU at home this season while going an even 5-5 ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five home games.

Betting Analysis – UConn Huskies

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-5
  • ATS: 9-4
  • SU - Home: 4-3
  • SU - Away: 4-2
  • O/U: 6-7

The Huskies are in the middle of the pack in the Big East standings. They closed as -2.5-point road favorites in Wednesday’s 11-point loss to Providence. This followed a seven-point loss at home to Seton Hall as one-point underdogs.

With its top scorer James Bouknight out of the lineup with an elbow injury, guards’ Tyrese Martin (11.8 points) and R.J. Cole (11.2) are the team’s top scorers. Each player has done a good job filling the void. Yet, Connecticut’s team scoring average has dropped to 70.5 points per game.

The Huskies are shooting 43% from the field and 34.5% from three-point range. Martin is pulling down a team-high 7.3 rebounds as part of the team’s 36.8 a game.

Defensively, UConn has allowed 70 points or more in each of its last four losses as compared to a season average of 64.8 PPG.

Betting Analysis – Xavier Musketeers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-2
  • ATS: 8-5
  • SU - Home: 9-1
  • SU - Away: 2-1
  • O/U: 8-5

The Musketeers are 2.5 games out of the top spot in the conference standings. They are 11-2 SU on the year overall.

Idle for the last two weeks, Xavier will need to quickly shake off the rust. Guard Paul Scruggs had the hot hand in their previous win over Butler with 24 points. He is one of the team’s highest scorers (14.6 points) along with forward Zach Freemantle (15 points).

Guard Nate Johnson is adding 11.5 PPG as Xavier’s best shooter from three-point range (52.2%).

The Musketeers are averaging 77.9 points while pulling down 38.9 rebounds a game. Defensively, they are holding opposing teams to 68.5 PPG. This average has dropped to 63 points over their last three games.


Inside the Stats – UConn Huskies

  • PS/G: 70.5 (212th)
  • PA/G: 64.8 (51st)
  • Off Rtg: 106 (98th)
  • Def Rtg: 97.6 (134th)

Inside the Stats – Xavier Musketeers

  • PS/G: 77.9 (52nd)
  • PA/G: 68.5 (137th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.7 (57th)
  • Def Rtg: 95.5 (90th)

Key Players to Watch

  • CONN - R.J. Cole (11.2 PPG, 4 APG)
  • CONN - Tyrese Martin (11.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
  • XAV - Zach Freemantle (15 PPG, 8.1 RPG)
  • XAV - Paul Scruggs (14.6 PPG, 6 APG)

UConn-Xavier Predictions

Rust could be a factor for Xavier on Saturday afternoon. However, this is a game they should win and cover playing at home. The Huskies are missing a huge part of their offensive attack, and they're not deep enough in talent to fill that void.

Look for the Musketeers to win this battle on both ends of the court. Their defense should be able to tip the scales toward the UNDER on the total line. It has played especially well in most of the team’s recent outings.

  • Score Prediction: Xavier 71 UConn 61
  • Best Bets: Xavier -3
  • Best Bets: UNDER

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