Villanova vs. Creighton Predictions, Odds, Preview

Feb. 13, 2021
Thom Cunningham
NCAA BK Expert

A massive Big East game sees the Villanova Wildcats hit the road to take on the Creighton Bluejays. Tip is set for 5 p.m. (ET) and will air on FOX.


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Villanova-Creighton Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Villanova -2
  • Money-Line: Villanova -150 Creighton +130
  • Total: 145.5

Odds Subject to Change

Despite playing at home, Creighton enters as the +2-point underdog. Creighton has failed to cover the spread in 12 of 20 games this season, while Villanova has covered in nine of 15 games.

The point total is set at 145.5, which is difficult to predict based on the trends. Villanova has gone OVER in nine of 15 games, while Creighton is split at 10-10 on the O/U this season.

Betting Analysis – Villanova Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-2
  • ATS: 9-6
  • SU - Home: 6-1
  • SU - Away: 7-1
  • O/U: 9-6

Villanova's greatest weapon is the offense, averaging nearly 80 points per game and holding the nation's fifth-most efficient rating. What makes Villanova even more lethal, on offense, is the three-point shooting they display.

The Wildcats hit 38.7% of their shots from beyond the arc, which ranks 19th in the nation. They also hit 78.8% of their free throws (ranks 12th nationally), and are extremely efficient in passing the ball (16.3 assists per game ranks 36th in nation).

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Collin Gillespie continue to go back-and-forth as the team's point scoring leader, but Justin Moore is the backbone name to watch. Moore averages 12.9 points per game, but also sees 4.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists as well.

Caleb Daniels and Jermaine Samuels also average over 11 points per game, but then there's a massive drop off. The weakness for Villanova is the lack of depth, reliant on mostly five players to produce. Villanova also ranks 220th in defensive efficiency, now going up against a team that is as three-point happy as Villanova is.

Betting Analysis – Creighton Bluejays

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 15-5
  • ATS: 8-12
  • SU - Home: 8-3
  • SU - Away: 7-2
  • O/U: 10-10

Creighton can match the Villanova offense with their own, scoring 78.8 points per game with an offensive efficiency rating of 110.4. Marcus Zegarowski still seems to be finding his way back to superstar form after an injury weeks ago.

Other players have stepped up however, including Mitchell Ballock. The senior scored 29 points on the road against Seton Hall, while scoring 14 points or more in three of his last five games. Denzel Mahoney, Damien Jefferson and Christian Bishop are lethal scorers as well - Mahoney leading the team in points per game.

After losing two in a row, Creighton has won five of its last six games but has failed to touch 80 points in seven of its last eight games. Only once has Creighton gone over 74 points in that span, so the Bluejays might have to eclipse the 80-point barrier to compete with Villanova's offense in this one.

Expect to see Creighton let it fly, attempting the 31st-most three-pointers per game (26). Creighton's advantage, besides not having to travel, is the defense. The Bluejays are much better on defense than Villanova is. Creighton averages 7.4 steals per game (ranks 88th), while also averaging 3.8 blocks per game (ranks 93rd).

This should be a high-scoring game with plenty of three-pointers attempted, but the Creighton defense gets the slight edge based on their ability to get steals and block shots. Jefferson and Mahoney average 1.5 steals per game, while Ryan Kalkbrenner averages 1.5 blocks per game. Despite this game clearly showcasing two strong offense, it might be the defensive play of these three Bluejays that make the difference here.

Inside the Stats – Villanova Wildcats

  • PS/G: 79.1 (41st)
  • PA/G: 67.6 (110th)
  • Off Rtg: 118.2 (5th)
  • Def Rtg: 101 (220th)

Inside the Stats – Creighton Bluejays

  • PS/G: 78.8 (44th)
  • PA/G: 69.1 (155th)
  • Off Rtg: 110.4 (39th)
  • Def Rtg: 96.8 (118th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (16.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
  • NOVA - Collin Gillespie (14.5 PPG, 5.2 APG)
  • CRE - Marcus Zegarowski (14.4 PPG, 4 RPG, 4.3 APG)
  • CRE - Denzel Mahoney (14.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG)

Villanova-Creighton Predictions

Villanova is the better team on paper, as the low -2-point spread should be fine in taking. That isn't the best bet however, as the point total going OVER seems to have a bit more conviction. The point total given means both teams need to cross 70 points, which should occur.

Assuming both teams can come close to their seasonal point total average, the Bluejays and Wildcats should each see somewhere around mid-70's. That would see the point total go OVER, as any team touching 80 will surely see the point total go way OVER. Although taking Villanova isn't a bad choice (playing the ATS odds correctly), consider both teams to showcase their offensive skill set.

  • Score Prediction: Villanova 74 Creighton 72
  • Best Bets: OVER


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