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College Basketball

TCU vs. Texas Tech Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read

Feb. 16, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

Tuesday night’s betting action in the Big 12 features a matchup between the No. 7 Texas Tech Red Raiders and the TCU Horned Frogs.

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TCU-Texas Tech Betting Odds

  • Spread: Texas Tech -7
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 136.5

Odds Subject to Change

The Red Raiders go on the road as seven-point favorites for Tuesday's conference clash with the betting line for the total set at 136.5 points.

Texas Tech’s straight-up three-game winning streak ended with Tuesday’s nine-point loss to West Virginia as a six-point home favorite. It has failed to cover against the spread in five of its last six games. The total has gone OVER in three of its last five contests.

The Red Raiders are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against TCU. The total has gone OVER in five of the last six meetings.

TCU is coming off Saturday’s 15-point loss to Texas as an -11.5-point road underdog. It now has just two SU wins in its last eight games while going 3-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last 10 contests.

The Horned Frogs return home with a SU 6-4 record this season while going a costly 1-8-1 ATS on their home court. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine home games.

Betting Analysis – Texas Tech Red Raiders

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 14-6
  • ATS: 7-13
  • SU - Home: 9-4
  • SU - Away: 5-2
  • O/U: 10-10

The Red Raiders’ big showdown with Baylor on Saturday was postponed heading into this home-and-home series against TCU. As a bonus in Tuesday's opener, they are 5-1 SU in six previous road games this season.

Guard Mac McClung continues to lead the team in scoring with 17.1 PPG. He is shooting 43.3% from the field and 34.3% from three-point range. He is one of four players averaging at least 10 PPG.

Texas Tech is averaging 74.3 points a game with 35.8 rebounds. Guard Kevin McCullar leads the way in rebounds per game with 6.5.Defensively, the Red Raiders are allowing an average of 62.7 PPG. Yet, they have allowed at least 70 points in four of their last six games.

Betting Analysis – TCU Horned Frogs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-8
  • ATS: 8-11
  • SU - Home: 8-4
  • SU - Away: 3-4
  • O/U: 10-9

With Saturday’s 15-point loss, four of TCU’s last six losses have been by double digits. The two wins during this eight-game span were by a combined six points.

The trio of guards’ RJ Nembhard, Mike Miles and center Kevin Samuel have accounted for most of TCU’s production this season. Nembhard leads the team in points (16.9) and assists (4.0). Miles is averaging 14.6 PPG and Samuel (9.1 points) is pulling down 8.5 rebounds a game.

As a team, the Horned Frogs are scoring an average of 69.1 PPG and shooting 44.7% from the field. This drops to 35.1% from three-point range. Total rebounds per game add up to 35.7.

Defensively, TCU is currently allowing an average of 71.2 points a game after giving up 76 points or more in four of its last six outings.


Inside the Stats – Texas Tech Red Raiders

  • PS/G: 74.2 (113th)
  • PA/G: 62.7 (22nd)
  • Off Rtg: 108.6 (59th)
  • Def Rtg: 91.7 (27th)

Inside the Stats – TCU Horned Frogs

  • PS/G: 69.1 (246th)
  • PA/G: 71.2 (205th)
  • Off Rtg: 100.8 (202nd)
  • Def Rtg: 103.8 (271st)

Key Players to Watch

  • TT - Mac McClung (17.2 PPG)
  • TT - Terrence Shannon (13 PPG, 5 RPG)
  • TCU - R.J. Nembhard (16.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4 APG)
  • TCU - Mike Miles (14.6 PPG)

TCU-Texas Tech Predictions

While these two teams are only separated by a game and a half in the Big 12 standings, the gap is much wider than that in a head-to-head matchup. This is a great chance for Texas Tech to pick up a pair of wins this week both SU and ATS with Wednesday’s rematch on its home court.

I'm also going with the UNDER in Monday’s contests. The Red Raiders win this game on the road behind a much better effort playing defense.

  • Score Prediction: Texas Tech 70 TCU 62
  • Best Bets: UNDER
  • Best Bets: Texas Tech -7

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