Boise State vs. San Diego State Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Mountain West Conference could have as many as five teams in the NCAA Tournament this year. Nevada and Utah State are currently on the bubble, while New Mexico, San Diego State, and Boise State would likely make the Big Dance at this point. Currently, the Boise State Broncos and San Diego State Aztecs are tied for first place in the MWC at 8-2, so the winner of their game on Friday night will sit all alone on top of the standings.

For the first time this season, the San Diego State Aztecs will take on the Boise State Broncos. These teams are both 8-2 in MWC action, and they will square off this Friday, February 3, 2023, at 9:00 p.m. ET on FS1 from Viejas Arena in San Diego, California.

Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Prediction

San Diego State has been a tough out at home this season. (Getty)

Don't expect to see a lot of scoring in this game. Boise State has the 9th ranked defense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy. San Diego State has long been known for its defensive prowess too, and neither team plays at a high tempo.

In their three meetings last year, neither team was able to score more than 58 points in any game, and they combined to score 79, 105, and 115 points. That makes the Under a very enticing play.

Score Prediction: San Diego State 64 Boise State 60
Best Bet: Under 133.5

Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Odds

Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Resources

Date: Friday, Feb. 3, 2023
TV-Time: FS1, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Viejas Arena
Location: San Diego, California
Expert Picks

Mountain West Championship Odds

Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs Betting Stats

Boise State Broncos
SU: 18-5
ATS: 15-7
O/U: 11-12
PPG: 72.4
OPPG: 60.7

San Diego State Aztecs
SU: 17-5
ATS: 9-12
O/U: 14-8
PPG: 74.9
OPPG: 66.3

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Boise State Broncos Betting Analysis

Boise State has gone 3-1 in its last four conference road games. (Getty)

The Broncos have won eight of their last nine games, and their lone loss in this stretch was an overtime loss to New Mexico on the road by two points. They are playing solid basketball, and Max Rice is one of the players carrying the torch for Boise State. Rice is averaging 13.7 PPG and 4.9 RPG, and he is one of the elite perimeter shooters on this team along with Chibuzo Agbo. Rice is knocking down 43.1% of his three-point attempts, and he is making over 90% of his free throws.

As for Agbo, he is one of those rare shooters that is better from downtown than from mid-distance. Agbo is making 42.2% of his threes compared to 37.8% of his two-point attempts.

The leading scorer on Boise State is Tyson Degenhart. The 6'7 sophomore is averaging 14.4 PPG and 5.4 RPG, and he is making 53.7% of his field goals. Degenhart would be one of the most efficient scorers in the MWC if he wasn't making just 29.2% of his three-point attempts. Marcus Shaver Jr. is struggling from beyond the arc too, making just 26.7% of his threes, but he is averaging 13.2 PPG and leads Boise State with 6.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, and 1.7 SPG.

The two keys to Boise State's success on defense are team rebounding and perimeter defense. Everyone on this team can hit the glass with every starter averaging at least 4.8 RPG. Opponents are making just 27.5% of their three-point attempts against the Broncos too.

Updated on 05/20/2024
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San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

San Diego State is 11-1 at home this season. The Aztecs' only home loss came against New Mexico three weeks ago. However, they lost their last time out as they blew a second half lead against Nevada on Tuesday.

The best thing about the Aztecs' offense is that they get to the foul line a lot. They shoot 74.2% from the charity stripe too, so that helps them put points on the board. However, they are shooting less than 35% from beyond the arc, and the only great three-point shooter is Adam Seiko. He is making 49.2% of his threes, but he has only taken 61 shots from downtown and is averaging just 7.1 PPG.

Matt Bradley is the leading scorer on San Diego State. Bradley is averaging 13.2 PPG, but he is making just 39.9% of his field goals and 35.7% of his threes. The only other person on the Aztecs that is averaging double digits in points is Darrion Trammell (11.1 PPG), but he has been an even worse shooter. Trammell is making a scant 36.7% of his field goals and 31.9% of his threes.

Trammell and Lamont Butler are very good on the defensive end though. Both players rank among the best in the country in terms of steal percentage, and they do a decent job helping set things up on offense.