ACC Championship Game Preview: Duke vs. Virginia

The Duke Blue Devils are looking to win their 22nd ACC Tournament this week. Although Duke has taken a step back in Jon Scheyer's first year in Durham, the Blue Devils are still the cream of the crop in the conference as there are no elite teams in the ACC this season. Duke has won eight straight games since losing in overtime to Virginia on the road back on February 11, and the Blue Devils are out to avenge that defeat. A convincing win here could lead to Duke being a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The 2023 ACC Championship Game will pit the Duke Blue Devils against the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday, March 11, 2023. This game will be played at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Prediction

Although Duke lost to Virginia in the previous meeting between these teams, the Blue Devils are the pick in the rematch. This crowd will be heavily in favor of Duke with Greensboro located about an hour away from Durham, and some of the five-star recruits that Scheyer signed in the offseason are starting to come together. Virginia is a very good team, but the Cavaliers have a ceiling, and they are at a major size disadvantage as the Blue Devils are 2.5 inches taller on average than their opponent.

Best Bet: Duke -2.5 (-110)
Score Prediction: Duke 64, Virginia 59

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Odds

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, Mar. 11, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Greensboro Coliseum
Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
Matchup
Expert Picks

ACC Tournament Odds

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers Betting Stats

Duke Blue Devils
SU: 25-8
ATS: 14-19
O/U: 14-19
PPG: 72.9
OPPG: 64.4

Virginia Cavaliers
SU: 25-6
ATS: 13-18
O/U: 16-15
PPG: 68.4
OPPG: 60.3

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 04/26/2024

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Duke Blue Devils Betting Analysis

Kyle Filipowski was excellent in Duke's win over Miami on Friday night. Filipowski has been the best player for the Blue Devils as a freshman, and he had 17 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists to lead the Blue Devils past the Hurricanes. He paces Duke with 15.3 PPG and 8.9 RPG, but he was absolutely dreadful against UVA last month. In that game, Filipowski finished with no points and turned the ball over five times in 30 minutes of action.

Turnovers and fouls were the reasons that the Blue Devils lost that game to the Wahoos. Duke turned the ball over a whopping 22 times and had 24 personal fouls against UVA last month, while the Cavaliers had just nine turnovers and 16 personal fouls. Virginia took advantage of Duke's inexperienced lineup, but the Blue Devils' freshmen have now had some time to cut their teeth.

Tyrese Proctor has taken on more and more of a role, and he has scored 10+ points in six straight games. Proctor has 15 assists compared to just three turnovers in the ACC Tournament so far, and he is knocking down 60% of his threes. Dariq Whitehead has shown that he can come off the bench in order to provide scoring in bursts, and Mark Mitchell is another freshman that has scored 10+ points in six straight games while shooting at a solid clip.

Virginia Cavaliers Betting Analysis

The key for Virginia in every game is to hit their three-pointers. The Cavaliers are making just 35.7% of their triples this season, as their top three scorers are all hitting 37% from beyond the arc. Armaan Franklin is the leading scorer for the Wahoos with 12.7 PPG, and Jayden Gardner is right behind him with 12.3 PPG. Kihei Clark rounds out the trio with 11.1 PPG, and he leads the team with 5.6 APG.

This is a very efficient offense. Virginia only turns the ball over on 13.5% of possessions (5th nationally), and the Cavaliers have assists on two-thirds of their made field goals (3rd nationally). They do a decent job of getting to the free throw line, but this team is uncharacteristically subpar at hitting its free throws with an overall number under 70%. A lot of their shots get blocked too since the Cavaliers don't have a lot of size.

Virginia ranks 25th nationally in defense per Ken Pomeroy. The Cavaliers have been competitive due to the pack line defense that Tony Bennett has installed over the last decade, and they force a lot of turnovers. Reece Beekman does a good job of getting into passing lanes, and he has a decent amount of blocks too for a guard. Their interior defense has been as good as it usually is under Bennett, but the perimeter defense has simply been average.