AAC Championship Game Preview: Houston vs. Memphis

AAC Tournament Betting Trends & Action Report

The Houston Cougars were hoping to be named the No. 1 overall seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but now they are simply hoping that Marcus Sasser will be able to play next week. Houston's star guard went down with a groin injury in the Cougars' win over Cincinnati in the AAC Semifinals on Saturday, and his status is unknown as of Sunday morning. That gives the Memphis Tigers some optimism that they can knock off Houston in the AAC Championship Game after they fell to the Cougars twice in the regular season.

The AAC Championship Game between the Houston Cougars and Memphis Tigers will be played on Sunday, March 12, 2023, at 3:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

Houston Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Preview

Before Marcus Sasser suffered a groin injury, the Houston Cougars seemed very likely to beat the Memphis Tigers on their way to claiming a No. 1 seed. However, the loss of Sasser for this game is a huge blow. He scored 30 of Houston's 60 points in a win over East Carolina on Friday, and Sasser has scored 20 or more points in seven of the Cougars' last nine games. The Cougars do have a deep bench so they can absorb the loss of Sasser better than other teams, but the Tigers can capitalize from his absence to finally beat Houston.

Best Bet: Memphis +6 (-110)
Score Prediction: Memphis 68, Houston 65

Houston Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Odds

Houston Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, Mar. 12, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 3:15 p.m. ET
Venue: Dickies Arena
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Matchup
Expert Picks

AAC Tournament Odds

Houston Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Stats

Houston Cougars
SU: 25-8
ATS: 16-17
O/U: 18-15
PPG: 76.1
OPPG: 56.5

Memphis Tigers
SU: 31-2
ATS: 18-15
O/U: 14-18-1
PPG: 79.5
OPPG: 72.6

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 05/07/2024

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Houston Cougars Betting Analysis

Freshman Jarace Walker is likely to be the go-to player for Houston with Marcus Sasser out for this game. Walker is considered a probable lottery pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, and he is the second leading scorer and rebounder on the Cougars with 11.0 PPG and 6.7 RPG. He struggles to sink his free throws, but he is making 47.8% of his field goals and is able to create his own shots.

J'Wan Roberts is one of the best undersized frontcourt players in the nation, as he is averaging 10.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG while making 63.2% of his field goals. Roberts is very good on the offensive glass, and that has helped make Houston rank in the top five in offensive rebounding percentage nationally.

Houston is at an advantage in tournaments because the Cougars have 10 players that are averaging at least 10 MPG. That will keep them from being as fatigued on Sunday afternoon, although someone will have to pick up the minutes for Sasser. This has also helped the Cougars rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy. Opponents are making just 27.5% of their threes and 42.8% of their two-point field goals against the Cougars, as only the Crimson Tide have a better defense among title contenders. Houston ranks No. 1 nationally in block percentage though, as the Cougars have three superb shot blockers in Walker, Roberts, and Ja'Vier Francis.

Memphis Tigers Betting Analysis

Penny Hardaway has completely changed course in his fifth season in charge of the Memphis Tigers. Hardaway initially focused on recruiting five-star freshmen, but he has now decided to bring in transfers that have proved themselves in other stops. The Tigers are now starting five seniors, and the only starter that was originally recruited by Hardaway is Jayden Hardaway.

SMU transfer Kendric Davis is one of the top scorers in the country. Davis is averaging 21.8 PPG, and that ranks 10th nationally. He is a very good free throw shooter that gets to the charity stripe a ton, but he hasn't been the most efficient shooter from the floor.

DeAndre Williams is the other leading scorer on Memphis, and he is a much more efficient shooter. Williams is averaging 17.9 PPG, and he is making 53.8% of his field goals and 40.9% of his three-pointers. He doesn't have a lot of bulk on his 6'9 body, but he is a solid rebounder too with 7.9 RPG.

Memphis ranks in the top 25 nationally in steal percentage and block percentage. Alex Lomax is superb when it comes to getting into passing lanes and picking the pockets of other guards, and he could really be an X-Factor with Sasser out for the Cougars.