ACC Report – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

Wake Forest at Tulane (Thurs. - CBS Sports Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
These two teams opened the 2016 season in Winston-Salem, with the Demon Deacons slugging it out for a 7-3 win over the Green Wave. Wake never threatened to cover the 14-point number, and 'under' (42.5) bettors never even broke a sweat in that contest. The Demon Deacons opened as eight-point favorites, but that has been bet down to six points as of Wednesday morning. The line is substantially higher than it was in that 2016 game, holding steady around 55. The Deacs were 1-1 ATS on the road last season as favorites, and 1-2 ATS away from home if you count their bowl game. They have only been favored on the road three times since the start of the 2015 season, going 1-2 ATS during the span. The Demon Deacons have been favored by three or more points on the road just three times since the start of the 2010 season. The last time Wake covered as favorites by three or more points away from home was back on Nov. 28, 2009 at Duke. Tulane is just 1-6 ATS in their past seven against the ACC, but 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in the past six at home.

Syracuse at Western Michigan (Fri. - CBSSN, 6:00 p.m. ET)
The Orange and Broncos square off for the first time ever, and the game will take place in Kalamazoo with Syracuse favored by 5 1/2 points as of Wednesday AM. Syracuse has posted a total of 15 wins ove rthe past four seasons, while Western Michigan looks to bounce back after an injury-filled .500 season. The Orange have posted wins in four consecutive regular season openers, although a good chunk of those have been against FCS sides. Western was just 2-4 ATS in six home games last season, although they were a respectable 4-2 SU. The last time the Broncos were an underdog at home was Nov. 11, 2015 against Bowling Green, losing 41-27 as a three-point 'dog. They also lost that same season to Michigan State as an underdog at home, but covered a 16 1/2-point number.

Army at Duke (Fri. - ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils open the campaign at home against the Black Knights in a much tougher matchup than usual. The past two years have featured opening game wins against FCS foe and Bull City rival North Carolina Central, and the Eagles have been their opponent for the past three home openers, too. In fact, this is the first time since Sept. 1, 2012 that the Blue Devils have opened with an FBS team at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. They won that day by a 46-26 margin against Florida International, covering a three-point number. Duke will be looking to avenge a 21-16 setback in West Point last season, as Army won outright as 3 1/2-point favorites. These teams also met Oct. 8, 2016 in Durham, with the Blue Devils slugging out a 13-6 win in front of the home fans as 5 1/2-point favorites. In other words, the home team is 2-0 ATS in the past two meetings. These teams have met for each of the past three straight years, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0.

Massachusetts at Boston College (ACC Network, 1:00 p.m.)
The Eagles host the Minutemen in Chestnut Hill in a Bay State matchup, and Boston College opens as a hefty 18-point favorite. The total has also jumped from 60 to 63, as bettors are confident coach Steve Addazio's bunch can improve upon their seven-win showing. Running back A.J. Dillon rushed for 1,589 yards and 14 touchdowns last season, and he'll be running behind an offensive line returning all five starters. UMass rolled up a 63-15 win last week against FCS Duquesne to cover a 21 1/2-point number, but a game against an FBS opponent on the road is a totally different story. Still, UMass has a high-octane offense and they have covered four of the past five on the road, and five of the past seven overall. BC closed out last season 8-1-1 ATS in their final 10, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against winning sides. The over has cashed in UMass' past seven non-conference battles, and seven of their past eight overall. The under is 19-7 in the past 26 at home for BC, however, and 24-11-1 in their past 36 overall.

North Carolina at California (FOX, 4:00 p.m.)
The Tar Heels head out to the left coast looking for revenge against the Golden Bears. Cal posted a 35-30 victory, winning outright as a 12 1/2-point favorite, while the 'over' connected. It was the first of many losses for UNC in a lost and injury-plagued season, as they went just 3-9 SU. However, the Tar Heels did end up 4-0 ATS in their final four games after a trying 1-8 ATS start. Cal lost their final two games of 2017 to fall just short of bowl eligibility, although like Carolina they were able to close on a high note by covering three straight, and five of their final six. California also covered all five of their home games last season against FBS opponents, and they're 9-2 ATS over the past 11 at home against FBS clubs.

Louisville vs. Alabama from Orlando, Fla. (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Cardinals and Rolling Tide will do battle at Camping World Stadium in Orlando as they look to get off to a good start. Louisville is unranked. Alabama is No. 1, and they're favored by 24 1/2 points. This game might not be terribly competitive. Louisville posted at least 31 points in each of their eight victories last season, and they averaged 46.0 points per game (PPG) in their final three regular-season outings while going a perfect 3-0 ATS. All of that would be impressive if their first opponent was anybody but the Tide. This will be the first time these clubs have faced each other since the Cards bounced the Tide 34-7 in the Fiesta Bowl to close out the 1990 season. The Cards are just 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine non-conference battles, while Bama is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on a neutral-site field, 6-2 ATS in their past eight against the ACC and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their past five showings on fieldturf. The total trends differ for these two teams, too. The under is 6-0-1 in the 'Ville's past seven neutral-site battles, and 5-1 in their past six non-conference tilts. The under is 8-2 in Bama's past 10 non-conference battles, but the over is 19-6-1 in their past 26 neutral-site affairs.

Miami-Florida vs. Louisiana State from Arlington, Tex. (Sun. - ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
The Hurricanes look to rebound after fizzling down the stretch. The Tigers will look to regain their championship form, and can get off to a big start against a Top 10 foe. Miami opened the season 10-0 SU, turnover chains were the rage and everyone was saying "The U is back!" However, a 24-14 loss to unranked Pittsburgh as a 12-point favorite cooled off playoff talk, a blowout loss in their first-ever ACC title game appearance to Clemson squashed more of their excitement and a 34-24 setback to Wisconsin really cast a pall on what should have been a celebration. The Canes ended up failing to cover in their final four. The Tigers were a little more consistent, winning nine of their 12 regular season games, but they lost to Notre Dame in their bowl to lose an un-LSU-like fourth time in a season. Neither of these sides have been particularly strong in neutral-site or non-conference battles. UM is 5-11 ATS in their past 16 on fieldturf, and they're 1-7 ATS in their past eight neutral-site battles. LSU is 1-4 ATS in their past five against the ACC and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four non-conference battles. The total might be the way to go, and you might want to go under. The under is 6-0 in Miami's past six neutral-site games, and 5-1 in their past six against the SEC. The under is 4-0 in LSU's past four neutral-site battles, and 6-2-1 in their past nine out of conference tilts.

Virginia Tech at Florida State (Mon. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
The Willie Taggart Era gets underway in Tallahassee on Monday night in the standalone game, and it also happens to be the season opener and an important battle for ACC supremacy. The 'Noles opened as 5 1/2-point favorites, but the line has blown up to 7 1/2 as of Wednesday morning. The Hokies haven't fared very well on the road lately, going 1-4 ATS in their final five to close out 2017. And, for what it's worth, they're 0-4 ATS in their past four appearances on a Monday. The Seminoles didn't do well in the ACC last season, going 0-6-2 ATS in their final eight conference games, and they needed a make-up game to become bowl eligible in 2017. The under is 35-17 in Va. Tech's past 52 ACC games, while the under is 20-7-1 in the past 28 inside the ACC for FSU. However, the 'over' has connected in the past five meetings in this series, while the home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four battles.

Other Games
James Madison at North Carolina State (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)
Furman at Clemson (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m.)
Alcorn State at Georgia Tech (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
Albany at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
Richmond at Virginia (ACC Network, 6:00 p.m.)

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