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NCAAF

Aug 30, 2018

Tech Trends - Week 1

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Thursday, Aug. 30
Matchup Skinny Edge
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UCF at UCONN...Heupel debut at UCF!. Note road team has covered last three in series. Edsall only 5-6 in UConn return LY but did cover 5 of last 7. UCF was 5-1 as visiting chalk past two years for Frost (counting 2017 Cincy as W) though Knights only covered 2 of last 7 in otherwise big 2017.
Slight to Central Florida, based on team and series road trends.
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NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE...Pat Fitz covered last 7 in reg season LY and is 16-9 as dog since 2014 season. Cats also 7-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2016 and have won last 4 SU (3-1 vs. line) vs. Purdue. Brohm 9-4 vs. line LY, 29-15-1 last 45 on board with WKU and Boilermakers. Purdue is 7-1 as home chalk since 2015 (4-1 LY for Brohm).
Slight to Northwestern, based on series trends.
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NEW MEXICO STATE at MINNESOTA...Ags were 7-1 vs. line last two years in non-Belt (though this year all games are non-conf as they’re not in Belt!). Fleck 0-3 laying DD last year in Gopher debut, and Minny just 5-10 last 15 vs. line at TCF Bank Stadium.
New Mexico State, based on team trends.
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WAKE FOREST at TULANE...Wake in rare road chalk role, 0-2 under Clawson since 2014. Fritz 5-1 vs. line at home LY (2-0 as home dog), Wave has covered openers for Fritz last 2 years including at Wake in 2016. Fritz also 4-2 vs. points non-American foes since 2016.
Tulane, based on team trends.
Friday, Aug. 31
Matchup Skinny Edge
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UTAH STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Utags only 4-11 last 15 as dog (since mid 2015), 1-4 getting DDs past two seasons. Also no covers last six vs. non-MW away from Logan. After a couple of subpar spread seasons, MSU 5-2 vs. line as host LY, also 3-1 vs. line non-league. But only 2-5 vs. spread last seven as non-Big 10 home chalk.
Slight to Michigan State, based on Utag negatives.
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SYRACUSE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Cuse hasn’t been road chalk since before Babers arrived (back to 2014 in Shafer era). Babers only 1-4 as chalk overall last season, though Orange was 4-1 vs. line away (all damage done as DD dog). WMU 4-1 vs. line last five openers. Broncos 5-1-1 vs. line last seven vs. Power 5 conf foes (counts Cotton Bowl with Fleck after 2016 vs. Wiscy as push). Also 7-3-1 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-MAC (counts Wiscy as push; but 2-2 LY for Lester).
Western Michigan, based on team trends.
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WESTERN KENTUCKY at WISCONSIN...WKU a big letdown LY in Sanford debut, just 4-9 vs. line (1-1 as DD dog). Also just 1-6 vs. spread away from home. Chryst 7-4 laying DD LY, 10-5-1 in role since 2016, 5-3 laying 20 or more past two years.
Wisconsin, based on recent WKU negatives.
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COLORADO STATE vs. COLORADO (Friday, August 31 at Broncos Stadium, Denver)...MacIntyre is 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 vs. line against CSU since arriving at Buffs in 2013. CU 9-6-1 vs. spread non-Pac 12 for Coach Mac. Rams dropped last 7 vs. line in 2017, and CSU 3-8-1 vs. points last 12 vs. non-MW.
Colorado, based on series and team trends.
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SAN DIEGO STATE at STANFORD...Rocky Long 6-2 as dog since 2015 and has won last three outright vs. Pac-12. Aztecs on 23-12 spread uptick into 2018. Tree 3-8 last 11 as Farm chalk, no covers last three on Farm as chalk vs. non-Pac 12. Shaw just 2-4 vs. line last six openers.
San Diego State, based on team trends.
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ARMY at DUKE...Army 14-7-2 last 23 as dog, though Monken just 4-4-1 getting DDs since 2014. Army covered 4 of last 5 LY, also 12-7-2 last 21 vs. line away from Michie. Duke had won and covered two straight from Army prior to 21-16 loss LY at West Point. Cutcliffe, however, 14-3 as DD chalk since 2011, and enters 2018 on 40-23-2 spread uptick.
Slight to Duke, based on team trends.
Saturday, Sept. 1
Matchup Skinny Edge
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FAU at OKLAHOMA...Lane Kiffin 10-2-1 last 13 on board a year ago though only 1-1-1 as dog (all in non-conf play). Lincoln Riley 9-5 vs. spread in debut LY, 5-1 as Norman chalk, 5-3 overall as DD chalk.
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.
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HOUSTON at RICE...Bloomgren debut at Rice! LY was first meeting since 2013, and UH has won and covered last four meetings (last Rice win 2008). Owls only 3-6 last nine as home dog in Bailiff years, and just 2-7 as DD dog LY. Applewhite, however, only 1-3 as road chalk LY (though this is not much of a road trip across town), and Cougs just 2-8 vs. spread last ten away from TDECU Stadium.
Slight to Houston, based on series trends.
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OREGON STATE at OHIO STATE... Jonathan Smith debut for Beavs! OSU only 3-8-1 vs. line LY and 1-4-1 as road dog (though not-so-bad 3-3 as DD dog). Buckeyes only 8-13 as Big Horseshoe chalk since 2015, and 3-6 laying 30 or more than span (though 0-4 of that in 2015). Buckeyes are 6-3 vs. spread last 9 vs non-Big 10.
Slight to Ohio State, based on team trends.
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APP STATE at PENN STATE...James Franklin 2-2 vs. line in Penn State openers, and 8-5 laying DD the past two seasons. Also 7-5 last 12 vs. spread against non-conf foes. App sagged to 1-5 vs. line as visitor LY after 9-3 spread mark away previous two years. Mounties 2-4 as DD dog since 2014.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.
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AKRON at NEBRASKA...Frost Huskers debut! Lots of hype for Frost though he was just 7-7-1 vs. spread his last 15 with Golden Knights (that counts no play in Cincy game LY). Only 3-4 laying DD LY but was 3-0 in role previous 2016. Zips however only 2-4 as road dog LY and just 6-8 vs. spread last 14 away from Infocision Stadium. Bowden also no covers last five vs. power 5 foes.
Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.
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UMASS at BOSTON COLLEGE...Addazio 6-3 as chalk the past two years and 4-1 laying DD that span. Eagles covered their last 9 in reg season LY and enter 2016 on 12-4 spread run. Minutemen however are 7-3 as DD dog the past two seasons.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.
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KENT STATE at ILLINOIS...Lewis Golden Flashes debut! Kent hasn’t had a winning spread mark since 2012 and is 7-11 as DD dog since 2015. Kent is 3-3 vs. line against Power 5 past three seasons but was whipped 52-3 at Illini back in pre-Lovie 2015. Lovie however on 4-11 spread skid and is just 4-10 vs. spread at Champaign-Urbana since 2016. Illini 2-4 vs. spread non-Big Ten as well past two years.
Slight to Kent State, based on team trends.
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TEXAS STATE at RUTGERS...Bobcats big mediocre for Everett Withers, just 5-7 v.s line each of past two seasons, though holding own 6-6 as road dog that span. Average losing margin last five vs. non-Belt FBS foes in 199 points (39.8 pg!). Not stepping up too well! ‘Gers was 8-4 vs. line LY and 1-0 laying DD (vs. lowly Morgan State).
Rutgers, based on team trends.
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INDIANA at FIU...Rematch from 2016 won by IU 34-13 in opener. Hoosiers were 2-1 as road chalk LY (though 0-3 as road dog). IU won and covered meetings in both 2015 & ‘16, pre-Butch Davis at FIU. Hoosiers 5-1 vs. spread last six vs. non-Big Ten on road. Butch was 4-0 as home dog LY, though overall spread mark just 6-7.
Slight to Indiana, based on team and series trends.
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NORTHERN ILLINOIS at IOWA...NIU solid 10-3 as visiting dog since 2013 and has covered 6 of last 7 in reg season vs. Power 5 foes (not count bowl loss to Duke LY). Ferentz just 12-22-1 as Iowa City chalk since 2012, and 6-11 last 17 vs. line vs. non-Big 10 at Nile Kinnick Stadium.
Northern Illinois, based on team trends.
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TEXAS vs. MARYLAND (at FedEx Field, Landover, MD)...Revenge for Tom Herman after 51-41 shock loss in opener LY. Horns did recover to cover 8 of next 12 and were 2-0 as road favorite last term. UT also covered last three vs. non-Big 12 LY. Terps dropped 6 of last 8 vs. line LY, and just 9-16 vs. spread past two seasons.
Texas, based on team trends.
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BOISE STATE at TROY... Troy unfortunate not to get spread W out of that opener LY. But Trojans only 1-5 vs. line as host LY compared to covers last five away. Troy 6-1-1 as DD dog since 2015 (counts Boise LY as push). Broncos 11-5 as road chalk past three seasons but just 4-6 vs. spread last 10 non-MW.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.
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LA TECH at SOUTH ALABAMA...Campbell USA debut! Jags 8-16-1 vs. points at Mobile since 2014, just 17-32-1 vs. line the last four years of the Joey Jones regime. Skip 5-1 vs. spread away from Ruston LY and 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2016.
La Tech, based on team trends.
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MARSHALL at MIAMI-OHIO...Herd recovered to 9-4 vs. line LY after bumpy 2016. Marshall 5-0 as dog away from home LY, and was 6-0 overall as dog in 2017. Meanwhile RedHawks just 2-5 vs. points last seven at Yager Stadium and no covers all four vs. non-MAC LY.
Marshall, based on team trends.
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SMU at NORTH TEXAS...Dykes SMU debut (sort of, he was in place for bowl humiliation vs. La Tech LY). SMU just 1-4-1 vs. spread away from Dallas LY but did beat UNT 54-32 at Ford Stadium. Littrell 7-3 vs. line non-league for UNT past two years.
Slight to North Texas, based on team trends.
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MTSU at VANDERBILT...Vandy has overpowered MTSU lately, won big last two and again in 2015. Dores 6-0 vs. spread against C-USA heavies Blue Raiders and WKU the past three years. Vandy 8-2 vs. spread last ten vs. non-SEC FBS opposition. Stockstill only 5-9-1 last 15 as dog.
Vanderbilt, based on series and team trends.
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BYU at ARIZONA...Sumlin Cats debut! Sumlin covered openers the last four years at A&M and was 4-2 as chalk last season with Ags. Cougs 4-10 their last 14 on board for Sitake and 2-5 as dog LY.
Arizona, based on team trends.
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UTSA at ARIZONA STATE...Herm ASU debut! Under Graham, Sun Devils just 2-6 vs. spread last eight non-Pac 12 at Tempe. But they were 11-4 vs. spread last 15 as host. Roadrunners dropped 7 of last 8 vs. line LY, but are 5-1 as DD dog under Wilson since 2016 and covered pretty handily at Alamodome vs. ASU in 2016.
Slight to Arizona State, based on team trends.
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UNLV at USC...Sanchez has covered these Power 5 road games (at Mich, UCLA, Ohio State) each of past three years. Rebs 9-4 as dog since 2016 and Sanchez 11-4 as road dog since arriving in 2015. Trojans only 2-5 as Coliseum chalk LY and SC on 4-11 spread skid since late 2016. Also 1-6 as DD chalk LY and no covers last five vs. non-Pac 12.
UNLV, based on team trends.
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CINCINNATI at UCLA...Chip Bruins debut! With Ducks note Chip was just 1-3 vs. line in openers. His teams were 19-13-1 laying DD, however. Mora was awful in last few years at Rose Bowl, just 5-13 vs. spread since 2015, and just 1-7-1 last 9 vs. non-Pac 12. Cincy just 5-6 vs. spread in 2017 but Bearcats were 4-1 as road dog for Fickell LY.
Slight to Cincinnati, based on team trends.
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WASHINGTON vs. AUBURN (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)...Huskies have failed to cover last four vs. non-Pac 12 BCS opposition. Petersen just 2-5 vs. spread since 2015 as dog. Malzahn, however, 0-6-1 vs. points last seven vs. non-SEC, and just 5-12-2 last 19 on board since late 2016.
Slight to Washington, based on recent Malzahn negatives.
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CENTRAL MICHIGAN at KENTUCKY...Chippies covered last five reg season LY (though all in MAC) before losing to Wyo in bowl. But no covers last six against non-MAC foes not named Kansas. Mark Stoops, however, 0-5 as Lexington chalk LY, 2-8 in role since 2016, and just 2-9 last 11 vs. number against non-SEC.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on UK negatives.
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OLE MISS vs. TEXAS TECH (at NRG Stadium, Houston)...Rebs covered their last three away LY but are only 2-6 vs. spread against non-SEC past two seasons. Tech 5-2 vs. line last nine openers and 6-2-1 vs. number last 9 reg season vs. non-Big 12 foes.
Slight to Texas Tech, based on team trends.
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COASTAL CAROLINA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Coastal 3-1-1 as road dog LY and almost won SU at Arkansas. Muschamp 0-3 as DD chalk since 2016 and no covers last three as host vs. non-SEC.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.
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WEST VIRGINIA vs. TENNESSEE (at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)...Pruitt Vol debut! UT was 2-10 vs. spread for Butch LY and 7-17-1 past two seasons. Also 1-6-1 as road dog that span. Though WVU just 2-7 vs. spread last nine outside of Big 12.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.
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NORTH CAROLINA at CAL...Depleted Heels have failed to cover their opener the last five seasons. Also lost in one of those vs. Cal at Chapel Hill LY. UNC did cover its last four in 2017, however. UNC 6-9-1 vs. spread last 16 non-ACC. Wilcox 5-1 vs. line at Berkeley in 2017 debut, and Bears have covered 6 of last 7 at Strawberry Canyon since late 2016. Cal 7-2-1 vs. points last ten non-Pac 12 games.
California, based on team trends.
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WASHINGTON STATE at WYOMING...Leach just 2-8 vs. spread last ten away from Pullman, and 6-10 last 16 vs. non-Pac 12. Bohl 8-2 last ten as Laramie dog and 19-8 overall as dog since 2015.
Wyoming, based on team trends.
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BOWLING GREEN at OREGON...Cristobal sort-of debut for Ducks (named before Las Vegas Bowl last December). Webfoots 4-2 laying DD LY after 0-8 mark in preceding two seasons. Also 4-1 as Eugene chalk in 2017. Jinks poor 7-17 vs. spread last two seasons with Falcs who were also 2-5 as DD dog in 2017.
Oregon, based on team trends.
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OLD DOMINION at LIBERTY...ODU just 4-8 vs. line LY but Monarchs are 4-0 as visiting chalk the past two years.
Slight to Old Dominion, based on team trends.
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MICHIGAN at NOTRE DAME...Harbaugh just 7-13 last 20 vs. line since mid 2016. Mich has not faced Irish since 2014. If Kelly stays as a dog here note 10-5 mark last 15 as short.
Notre Dame, based on team trends.
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LOUISVILLE vs. ALABAMA (at Camping World Stadium, Orlando)...Nick pretty good in these neutral-field openers, has won six straight, covering five. Bama 9-1 vs. line last ten openers. Petrino on 5-12 spread skid since late 2016.
Alabama, based on Saban opening-game trends.
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NAVY at HAWAII...Not much home edge lately for Hawaii just 4-18-1 last 23 at Aloha Stadium (3-9-1 for Rolovich). Bows were 0-2-1 as DD dog LY. Mids 7-2 as visiting chalk since 2015 and 5-2 last seven as DD chalk.
Navy, based on team trends.
Sunday, Sept. 2
Matchup Skinny Edge
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MIAMI-FLA. vs. LSU (at Jerry Jones Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Orgeron was 3-0 as dog LY, and is a surprising 14-7 vs. spread since taking over LSU midway in 2016. Richt no covers last 4 or 7 of last 9 LY, Canes just 3-6 as chalk in 2017.
LSU, based on team trends.
Monday, Sept. 3
Matchup Skinny Edge
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VIRGINIA TECH at FLORIDA STATE...Taggart FSU debut! VPI just 1-4 last 5 and 3-6 last 9 vs. line LY, also 0-2 as dog, though Fuente is 10-7 last 17 on board since late 2017. Noles no covers first nine LY. Taggart teams 11-2-1 as home chalk at USF & Oregon the past three seasons.
Slight to Florida State, based on Taggart marks.
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