Big 12 Report – Week 3

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

Oklahoma at Iowa State (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
The Sooners and Cyclones will open their Big 12 schedule against each other, and Oklahoma heads to Ames with revenge on its mind after a stunning 38-31 loss against I-State in Norman last season despite being favored by 31 points. The Sooners have managed a dismal 1-4 ATS mark in the past five road games, but they're 5-1 ATS in the past six conference battles. Iowa State failed to cover last week in its opener. They started the season one week late after having their first game canceled due to inclement weather. The offense was sluggish at Iowa, losing a low-scoring battle. Their defense was outstanding, however. Iowa State is 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine against teams with a winning record while going 17-5 ATS in their past 22 on a grass surface, 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 in the Big 12 and 18-7-1 ATS across the past 26 overall. The Sooners, and subsequently the favorite, are 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings with the over hitting in five of the past six in this series.

Rutgers at Kansas (No national TV, 12:00 p.m.)
The Jayhawks got off the schneid last week with a shocking 31-7 win at Central Michigan, their first road victory since Sept. 12, 2009, They entered last week's game 18-101 with an NCAA-record 46 straight road setbacks, so their emphatic win in Mount Pleasant was rather stunning. In case you were wondering, the last time Kansas had back-to-back victories came way back in 2011, as the opened the season with wins over FCS McNeese State and North Illinois from Sept. 3-10. They haven't won consecutive games against FBS opponents since a four-game win streak from Sept. 12-Oct. 10, 2009 in the final days of the Mark Mangino era. So, should Kansas be favored against another Power 5 conference team? Well, it is Rutgers, and both barely qualify as Power 5. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in the past five non-conference battles, while Kansas is 7-18-1 ATS in the past 26 outside of the Big 12.

Boise State at Oklahoma State (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
One of the more anticipated and evenly matched battles on the schedule this week features the red-hot Broncos of Boise State in their most difficult contest they might face all season. Oklahoma State has mashed Missouri State and South Alabama, averaging 56.5 PPG, but they're still rather unproven. It will be one of the more interesting games to watch on the schedule, as we find out a lot about both sides. The Broncos enter this game 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference while going 4-1 ATS in the past five road games against a team with a winning home record and 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in the past eight non-conference tilts. As far as the total is concerned, the over is 4-1 in Boise's past five on the road and 11-5 in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record. The over is 7-1 in the past eight overall for OK State, while going 72-32-2 in the past 106 at Boone Pickens in Stillwater.

Duke at Baylor (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke packs the road gear for a second straight week after success away from home last week at Northwestern. The Bears also were on the road, toppling Texas-San Antonio to fire out to 2-0 SU this season. These teams met in Durham last season, with the Blue Devils coming away with a 34-20 win on Sept. 16, 2017. Duke could be stranded in Waco for a day or two after the game depending on how the Triangle area is affected by Hurricane Florence, and the approaching storm could be a bit of a distraction for the players, too. They're catching 6 1/2 from the Bears as of late Tuesday evening. Duke is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in the past five overall and an impressive 20-5-1 ATS in the past 26 non-conference battles. Baylor is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, 2-9-1 ATS in the past 12 following a straight-up win and 0-4-1 ATS in the past five outside of the conference.

Texas-San Antonio at Kansas State (No national TV, 4:00 p.m.)
The Roadrunners pull into Manhattan to battle the Wildcats, and UTSA is looking to pull the upset. It will be a tall order after a 37-20 setback at home against Baylor last week. They're 0-1-1 ATS in two games so far, both times entering as a 17-point underdog. In this one, they're a three-touchdown underdog. UTSA has hit the 'over' in both outings, thanks mainly to 43.0 PPG allowed. K-State barely escaped in a near-miss against FCS South Dakota before they were tattooed at Bill Snyder Family Stadium last week against Mississippi State. They're 0-2 ATS to date, so being favored by more than three touchdowns is a bit curious. Something's gotta give, though, as UTSA is 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road, 1-3-1 ATS in the past five vs. Big 12 foes and 0-5-1 ATS in the past six overall. K-State is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home and 0-4 ATS in the past four in September.

Houston at Texas Tech (FOX, 4:15 p.m.)
It's an important Lone Star state battle in Lubbock, as the Cougars head west from Houston to take on the Red Raiders. Texas Tech already has a loss this season, coming up short in the opener against Ole Miss by a 47-27 count. They bounced back with a 77-0 win over Lamar, but that proved very little outside of the fact they can beat up a lower-level FCS club. Houston has been more consistent, scoring 45 points in each game at Rice and against Arizona, both wins. Their defense has been decent, allowing just 22.5 PPG, but the Cougars D can be much better. They'll need to be against Texas Tech. The public has hopped on the Cougars, as the Red Raiders opener as a 2 or 2 1/2-point favorite at most shops, while the Cougs are now favored by 1 or 1 1/2. Houston is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games, however, although they're 13-6 ATS in the past 19 outside of the AAC. Texas Tech is 1-4 ATS in the past five at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning record, but 5-2 ATS in their past seven outside of the conference.

Ohio State vs. Texas Christian from Arlington, Tex. (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The marquee game of the weekend takes place at Jerry World when the Buckeyes and Horned Frogs lock horns. Ohio State has won handily against Oregon State and Rutgers, but a battle against TCU is easily the most difficult test. TCU roughed up FCS Southern by a 55-7 count, and then they bounced SMU 42-12 on the road for their first cover. The defense has allowed just 9.5 PPG, but QB Dwayne Haskins and RBs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber easily present the largeest test for TCU. The Buckeyes enter the game 7-1 ATS in their past eight neutral-site battles, while going 6-2 ATS in their past eight battles against Big 12 battles. For TCU, they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven outside the conference while going 1-4 ATS in the past five against the Big Ten. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS in the past 12 neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in the past four against winning teams. Remember, though, this game is being played in the state of Texas. The 'under is 4-1 in the past five neutral-site games for Ohio State, while going 4-1 in the past five against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in TCU's past four against the Big Ten, 5-1 in the past six agaisnt winning teams and 9-3 in the past 12 overall. However, the 'over' is 9-4 in the past 13 non-conference battles.

Southern California at Texas (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
The USC-Texas should be a marquee game, but both teams have stumbled out of the gate with a loss each through two games. The Trojans offense was listless in Palo Alto last week, managing just three points in a loss to Stanford. While Texas won last week, a win over Tulsa by just seven points didn't make Longhorns fans and alumni forget about the disappointing neutral-site loss against Maryland on Sept. 1. USC enters this game with a dismal 11-27-1 ATS mark over the past 39 road outings, and they're 0-6 ATS in the past six non-conference tilts and 0-5 ATS in the past five in the month of September. While Texas is 6-2 ATS in the past eight tries against Pac-12 clubs, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall, including 0-2 ATS this season. The 'under' is just 4-1 in the past five for USC in the month of September, but the over is 5-2 in the past seven non-conference tilts. The under is 4-1 in Texas' past five non-conference battles, while going 37-18-1 ATS in the past 56 in Austin.

Other Games
West Virginia at North Carolina State (canceled)

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