Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:00 AM

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3

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Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3
Wednesday, December 26
Matchup Skinny Edge
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BOSTON COLLEGE vs. BOISE STATE (First Responder Dallas Bowl)...BC on 16-6 uptick vs. spread. Addazio 8-3 as dog since last season, Eagles 11-2-1 last 14 as dog away from Chestnut Hill. Boise 3-1 last four bowls but 3-3 last six. Broncos 13-6-1 last 19 vs. points away from home.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.
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MINNESOTA vs. GEORGIA TECH (Quick Lane Bowl)...Gophers 2-6-1 vs. spread away from home (2-5-1 last eight as road dog) under P.J. Fleck. Paul Johnson 3-1 SU and vs. line in last four bowls.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on team trends.
at
TCU vs. CALIFORNIA (Cheez-it Phoenix Bowl)...TCU endured a 7-game spread losing streak this season before recovering to win and cover last two. Frogs 2-7 vs. points last nine bowls. Cal was on a 5-game spread win streak before losing finale vs. Stanford, and is 6-1 vs. points last 7 away from Berkeley. Bears “under” 11-3 last 14 dating to late 2017.
Cal and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.



Thursday, December 27
Matchup Skinny Edge
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DUKE vs. TEMPLE (Independence Bowl)...Duke 3-6 vs. spread last nine this season in rare spread slump under Cutcliffe. Blue Devils, however, have covered last four bowls, and Cutcliffe 4-0 as dog this season. Duke 24-11-1 as dog since 2013. Owls 8-4 vs. number this season but 1-2 SU and vs, line last three years in bowls.
Duke, based on extended trends.
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MIAMI-FLA. at WISCONSIN (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Rematch of LY’s Orange Bowl won by Wiscy 34-24! Miami rallied at end of season with pair of wins and covers but had dropped five previous vs. spread. Richt on 5-11 spread skid. Canes 1-4 SU and vs. line last five years in bowls (1-1 with Richt). Badgers however a miserable 3-9 vs. spread this season and just 1-2 as dog after Chryst was 6-2 as dog previous three years. Badgers have won and covered last four bowls.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on extended trends.
at
VANDERBILT vs. BAYLOR (Texas Bowl)...Derek Mason 8-4 vs. spread this season, and enters on 5-game spread win streak. Vandy 5-1 last six vs. line away from home. Dores have also covered last six vs. BCS-level non-SEC foes. Matt Rhule 4-3 as dog this season but just 8-8 in role since arriving at Baylor LY.
Vanderbilt, based on team trends.



Friday, December 28
Matchup Skinny Edge
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AUBURN vs. PURDUE (Music City Bowl)...Malzahn 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls last four seasons, also 10-19-2 overall vs. spread since mid 2016. Brohm has won bowls the past three tries and covered his last two bowls at WKU and Purdue. Boilermakers 3-0 as dog TY, 8-2 in role for Brohm since last season.
Purdue, based on team trends.
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SYRACUSE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Camping World Bowl)...Holgorsen 0-5 SU and vs. line last five bowls. Cuse 8-3-1 vs. spread this season, also 9-3 vs. spread last 12 away from Carrier Dome. Orange also 9-3 as dog sine last season, though not sure where this number goes post-Grier.
Syracuse, based on team trends.
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IOWA STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (Alamo Bowl)...ISU slumped late in season with four straight spread Ls to close campaign though Cyclones were 3-1 SU in those games. ISU was 22-8-1 vs. line in 31 previous games dating to early 2016. Matt Campbell 15-8-1 as dog since taking over at Ames in 2016. Leach was 3-0 vs. spread laying points away from home this season, but Cougs just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Leach. Wazzu 8-11 vs. spread last 19 against non-Pac 12 foes. Note Pac-12 1-8 SU in bowls LY.
Iowa State, based on team trends.



Saturday, December 29
Matchup Skinny Edge
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ARKANSAS STATE vs. NEVADA (Arizona Bowl)...Red Wolves 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though they did cover last four this season. Still, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine away from Jonesboro. Wolf Pack dropped last two vs. line this season after 4-game cover streak. Nevada no covers last five vs. non-MW BCS foes.
Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.
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FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Peach Bowl)...Rematch of opener last season won by Harbaugh, 33-17. That was pre-Dan Mullen at Florida; Gators were 8-4 vs. spread in Mullen debut, Michigan 1-4 vs. spread away from Ann Arbor this season, and 2-8 against spread last 10 away from home. Also just 2-6 last 8 as chalk away from Ann Arbor.
Florida, based on team trends.
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SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VIRGINIA (Belk Bowl)...Cavs only 1-3 vs. spread last four in 2018 but overall were 8-4 vs. number this season. Wahoos also 4-1 as dog in 2018. Mendenhall, however, 0-4 SU and vs. line last four bowls. SC 4-1 vs. line away from Williams-Brice this season. Muschamp has won and covered bowls the past two seasons and Gamecocks 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. spread in bowls since 2011.
South Carolina, based on team trends.
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OKLAHOMA vs. ALABAMA (CFP Orange Bowl)...OU just 2-4 SU and vs. spread last six bowls but did beat Saban in 2013 Sugar Bowl. Lincoln Riley 2-0 as dog (0-0 this season). Saban just 3-5 vs. spread in bowl/playoff games since 2013. Tide just 5-6 vs. line last 11 away from Tuscaloosa.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.
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NOTRE DAME vs. CLEMSON (CFP Cotton Bowl)...Dabo 7-1 vs. line last eight bowl/playoff games. Clemson on 10-3 spread uptick since late last season. Tigers also 7-2 vs. points last nine away from Death Valley. Brian Kelly just 2-2 as dog since 2016 (0-0 TY) and Irish 2-4 vs. line last six bowls (both covers vs. LSU).
Clemson, based on team trends.



Monday, December 31
Matchup Skinny Edge
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VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...Hokies were on a 6-game spread skid this season before winning and covering last two to salvage bowl streak (now 26 straight). VPI only 3-6 as dog since last season. Bearcats only covered 2 of last 6 this campaign after starting 5-1 vs. line. Cincy no wins or covers last three in bowls (though not since 2015).
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on extended trends.
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PITTSBURGH vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Pitt had a 6-game cover streak prior to last two games of season. Panthers 5-3 as dog this season, and Narduzzi 11-6 last 17 getting points. Pitt however 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Stanford 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four bowls, closed season on 4-1-1 spread uptick. Tree 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 away from Farm, and one of only two Pac-12 teams to cover spread in bowls last year.
Stanford, based on team trends.
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MICHIGAN STATE vs. OREGON (Redbox Santa Clara Bowl)...MSU only 4-8 vs. line this season and Dantonio 2-3 as dog after 7-4 mark as short entering 2018. Spartans just 6-9 vs. number last 15 away from East Lansing, though Dantonio 5-1 SU and vs. spread last six bowls. Ducks only 4-7-1 vs. spread this season and are 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Webfoots 2-8-2 last 12 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes.
Michigan State, based on team trends.
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MISSOURI vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Liberty Bowl)...Mizzou just 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Columbia (though did cover last two away TY). Tigers 3-5 vs. line against non-SEC BS-level foes since last season. Gundy was 4-0 as dog this season, 10-3 in role since 2015, and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.
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NORTHWESTERN vs. UTAH (Holiday Bowl)...Underdog side was 11-1-1 in NU games this season with Cats 5-1-1 as short. Pat Fitz has won SU last two bowls but just 1-2 last 3. Kyle Whittingham 10-1 SU in bowls, 8-3 vs. line in those, and 11-6 vs. spread last 17 away from Salt Lake City.
Slight to Utah, based on bowl trends.
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NC STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Gator Bowl)...Pack has won and covered last two and 3 of last 4 bowl games. Pack 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-ACC. Jimbo 8-4 vs. line TY but just 2-3 vs. points away from home, and only 1-3 last 4 bowls while at FSU.
Slight to NC State, based on team trends.



Tuesday, January 1
Matchup Skinny Edge
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IOWA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Outback Bowl)...Iowa 9-5 vs. line since late 2017, but Hawks 0-3 as dog in 2018. Ferentz 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls but has covered last four against non-Big Ten foes. Note Hawkeyes on 12-5 “over” run. MSU 16-9 vs. line since last season, 8-4 TY for Moorhead.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.
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KENTUCKY vs. PENN STATE (Citrus Bowl)...UK winless SU last four bowls but did cover in Music City vs. NU last year. Cats 4-1 as dog TY, Stoops 13-7 getting points since 2016. Penn State no covers last three away TY but James Franklin 3-1 vs. line in bowls for Nittany Lions, 5-2 vs. spread in bowls with Vandy years.
Slight to Kentucky, based on recent trends.
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LSU vs. UCF (Fiesta Bowl)...Orgeron 2-5 as chalk this season, and LSU just 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls (1-1 with Orgeron). UCF 4-2 vs. spread last six bowls, 10–3 vs. line since late last season, 5-1 last six vs. points away from home.
UCF, based on team trends.
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WASHINGTON vs. OHIO STATE (Rose Bowl)...Huskies only 4-9 vs. line this season, 5-11 last 16 on board. Petersen 1-3 as dog since 2016. U-Dub 2-7 vs. line last 9 against non-Pac 12. Huskies 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Petersen. Urban 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Buckeyes, 10-3 SU and vs. line in bowls back to Utah days in 2003.
Ohio State, based on team trends.
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TEXAS vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Tom Herman teams 12-2 as dog since 2015 with Houston. Herman 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls. Georgia has covered last five playoff/bowl games, Kirby Smart 2-0 vs. line in those. Bulldogs on 13-5 spread uptick since late 2017.
Slight to Texas, based on Tom Herman dog trends.



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