Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Total Moves - Week 7
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College Football Week 7 Total Moves
It was a Saturday of a few nervous moments with the total moves last week, as each of them landed right around the numbers. Maryland/Rutgers finished with 55 points which was good enough to stay 'under' the 56 number at time of writing, while the Oklahoma/Kansas game landed on 65 points when we needed 68. As close as those plays got, a 1-1 record isn't anything horrible.
It's on to Week 7 though, and now that there is a decent data size from all the teams after a month-plus of action, these total moves are nowhere near the range they were a month ago. Gone are the numerous games with 3+ point moves on the total as that's become reserved for just a select few games each week. More data means numbers are getting tighter, which in turn can make it harder to find an edge. So this week's plays aren't necessarily the biggest moves out there, but they are the ones that appear most notable.
YTD: 7-5 ATS
Week 7 Total move to disagree with:
Florida State/Clemson from 61.5 to 59.5
Both of these teams had last week off, and the rest was probably more needed for this Clemson team who survived a serious scare against North Carolina last time out. The Tigers needed to stop a 2-point conversion at the end of the game to escape with a one-point victory that day, in a game they were favored by about 28. And while they nearly got caught, and did drop out of the #1 spot in the CFB rankings, Clemson's still undefeated and continues on their path of making yet another CFB playoff.
For Florida State, the bye week could have come at a better time, as this Seminoles team had started to find something on both sides of the ball. Their much maligned defense that started the year allowing 30+ in three straight games, held Louisville and NC State to 24 and 13 points respectively in double-digit victories. FSU's offense has put up 30+ in four of their five games overall, and you just hope as a Florida State fan that the week off didn't allow them to get complacent, sloppy, and feeling their oats a bit. Chances are that wasn't the case knowing they had Clemson on deck, but when teams are in a groove the last thing they want is time away from the football field.
If that time away does affect FSU, it's likely going to be on the defensive side of things for multiple reasons. One, they are up against Clemson, by far the best team they've faced this year, and getting Clemson off a lackluster performance that resulted in a serious scare can't be ideal for an opposing defense.
Second, FSU's defense only really found something for about two games, compared to their offense being productive in four of the five. If you are going to revert back to your old ways after time away, the 'old' ways of the offense is still putting up 30+, while the 'old' ways of the defense is at least allowing that many. Coupled with the talented offense they are up against, Clemson should be able to put up 40+ in this game.
FSU should be able to hang around for at least a half or most of three quarters in that sense to put up 20+ themselves, and if not, and the game turns into a Clemson rout, that leaves open the possibility of some garbage time TD's from FSU to help the 'over' sneak in the back door.
So while I understand this support for the 'under' here with both teams likely well prepared off a bye week and the last memory of Clemson's offense for most not being good, a total of 60 or less is just too low for these two rivals that have a 10-4-1 O/U record the past 15 meetings. FSU's on a 10-4 O/U overall run themselves dating back to last season, and with 5-1 O/U runs for FSU after a SU win or allowing 19 or fewer points in their last outing, chalk this game up as something like a 48-24 win for Clemson as it sails well 'over' the number.
Week 7 Total move to agree with:
Navy/Tulsa from 52 to 54
Can't imagine this Tulsa defense has too much confidence right now after they blew a 30-9 lead going into the 4th last week against SMU. Tulsa had that game in the bag as big underdogs, before allowing 21 points in the final frame to go to OT, and allowing two more TD's in the extra session to end up on the losing side of things. Those kind of losses can be crushing and may take weeks to fully recover from.
The problem with that is now they have to turn around a week later and deal with Navy's triple-option attack which can be a bitch to deal with in general. It's not unfamiliar to Tulsa being a conference rival of the Midshipmen, but picking themselves off after that tough loss and knowing that their lower-extremities are going to take a beating this week against Navy, can't bring that much enthusiasm.
Therefore, I don't expect Tulsa's defense to be at their best, and may even resemble the one that allowed SMU to walk up and down the field on them in the 4th quarter and beyond. However, with that game being the first 'over' of the year for this Tulsa team, the full body of work still forced this total to come out too low, and even with the move it is probably a point or two short still.
Now, it never feels good betting into a bad number (something I've mentioned a few times before in this section), especially when it crosses through a key number like 53 in this case. But Navy is far from the quality of team they were just a few seasons ago, and defensively I believe they'll have a tough time slowing down Tulsa's attack as well. Navy's allowed an average of 30 points per game over their last two outings – both 'overs' – and you give this Tulsa team that kind of production – they average 24.6 points per game – and in a projected close game with a point spread hovering around pick'em, any number in the low 50's should get surpassed.
Other Notable Moves
Cincinnati-Houston: 54.5 to 51.5
Georgia State-Coastal Carolina: 66 to 64
Maryland-Purdue: 56.5 to 53.5
UAB-UTSA: 45 to 47
Old Dominion-Marshall: 45 to 47.5
New Mexico State-Central Michigan: 55.5 to 58
UMass-Louisiana Tech: 61 to 63
(Odds Subject to Change)