Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM
Total Moves - Week 8
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College Football Week 8 Total Moves
Thanks to a scoreless 1st half by Florida State and a missed FG at the end of that half by Clemson, last week's play on 'over' 59.5 in the FSU/Clemson game came up a half-point short. Thankfully Navy and Tulsa ha no problems lighting up the scoreboard to surpass all their numbers in the 45-17 Navy win to grab a split with the selections for the second straight week.
Stewing on shoulda, woulda, coulda's with losing selections is never a healthy thing for your mental process nor your bankroll, so it's on to this week's total selections as we start to see the quality of games ramp up even more across the country.
YTD: 8-6 ATS
Week 8 Total move to disagree with:
Georgia Tech/Miami from 47.5 to 45
After a national audience saw the Miami Hurricanes offense struggle to get past Virginia last week, there has been plenty of 'under' support for their game this week against a bad Georgia Tech team. The Yellow Jackets are in a big time transition year in more ways then one, as the bulk of their roster was recruited to play the triple-option style, but once HC Paul Johnson retired at the end of last year, the program was left trying to work with square pegs in round holes for 2019 as they move away from that style of football. The Yellow Jackets are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS this year as the pain for them has been very real on the football field, and for bettors supporting them.
However, this team has started to find a bit of something on offense lately, scoring 22 or more points in each of their last two games, and three of their past four, after opening the year needing three grams to crack the 14-point barrier. Miami's defense is quite good and overall should not have much issue holding the Jackets down, but it's also going to be tough for them to be overly sharp mentally coming off a national prime time game against a ranked foe. The Hurricanes are expected to win this game rather easily as 18-point chalk, but easy wins don't necessarily mean said team will hold their foes off the score sheet as well.
If Georgia Tech continues to put up 20+ like they have recently, Miami will need 40+ to cover this spread, and that gives us plenty of margin for error on going 'over' this now reduced total. The Hurricanes themselves have put up at least 17 points in every game so far, and after the last time they managed just 17 points, the following week was a 42-35 loss to Virginia Tech where the Hurricanes were laying double-digits and had a total in the mid-40's. Sound familiar?
And while there really is no comparison to the games these two played in past years because there is no more heavy reliance on the triple-option for Georgia Tech, you'd have to go back to the 2014 game to find one where fewer than 46 points were scored – they had 45 that year – and all the way to 2011 before these two played a game that would have cashed an 'under' ticket at this number.
The Jackets are getting more and more comfortable in their new skin with each passing week, and this is a perfect type of weak opponent for Miami's own offensive attack to get healthy again. You can understand why their is support for the 'under' in this game, but understanding a move and agreeing with it are two very different things.
Week 8 Total move to agree with:
Wisconsin/Illinois from 49.5 to 51
The Badgers have looked very impressive all year long, and they come into this game off back-to-back shutout wins over Kent State and Michigan State. They are expected to cruise to an easy victory again this week as they visit Illinois, and while that probably ends up being the case, I don't think they keep the Illini off the scoreboard.
For one, Illinois has been pretty good offensively at home all year long, scoring 42, 31, 38, and 25 points on their own field. Putting up 25 points on Michigan last week is probably their most comparable foe to what Wisconsin brings to the table here, and Lovie Smith and his Santa-like beard will be willing to take more chances and go for broke as a big underdog as he was a week ago when Michigan was in town.
Furthermore, Wisconsin's got a huge game vs Ohio State on deck, and similar to Miami's defense likely toning down the mental focus and energy in executing on every play after a big game against a ranked foe, Wisconsin's in a similar position with that huge game on deck. Don't be surprised to see a few mistakes on the field from this Wisconsin defense this week as they know they can beat Illinois with their eyes closed, as they sit back and let the offense carry the load in terms of getting the outright win. When that type of lack of intensity exists on the defensive side of things, paired up with an Illinois offense that knows how to move the ball at home, Illinois should be able to threaten 15-20 points here.
And yet, Wisconsin will still win this game going away, as Illinois has allowed 40+ points in three straight games, and 34 or more points in each of their last four. Three of those four came at home and all cashed 'over' tickets in the process, and this game likely is no different.
Other Notable Moves
Coastal Carolina-Georgia Southern: 49.5 to 45.5
Boise State-BYU: 50 to 45.5
Arizona State-Utah: 48.5 to 45.5
Oregon-Washington: 50.5 to 48.5
Kentucky-Georgia: 48 to 46
Old Dominion-UAB: 44 to 42
West Virginia-Oklahoma: 65 to 62.5
South Florida-Navy: 53.5 to 51.5
Rice-Texas San Antonio: 44 to 42
UTEP-Florida International: 54 to 52
Kent State-Ohio: 59.5 to 63
Baylor-Oklahoma State: 66 to 68.5
Iowa State-Texas Tech: 55.5 to 57.5
Air Force-Hawaii: 63 to 66.5