Betting Recap – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

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College Football Week 11 Results

WAGER	Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up	31-18
Against the Spread	17-32
WAGER	Home-Away
Straight Up	31-18
Against the Spread	20-29
WAGER	Totals (O/U)
Over-Under	25-23-1
YEAR TO DATE	Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up	521-142
Against the Spread	332-320-11
YEAR TO DATE	Home-Away
Straight Up	429-230
Against the Spread	318-330-11
YEAR TO DATE	Totals (O/U)
Over-Under	317-340-12

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Nevada (+17, ML +700) at San Diego State, 17-13
Tulsa (+16, ML +575) vs. UCF, 34-31
Illinois (+15.5, ML +550) at Michigan State, 37-34
California (+9, ML +275) vs. Washington State, 23-20
Miami-Ohio (+7, ML +230) at Ohio, 24-21
Minnesota (+6.5, ML +210) vs. Penn State, 31-26
Appalachian State (+6, ML +200) at South Carolina, 20-15

The largest favorites to cover

Ohio State (-42.5) vs. Maryland, 73-14
Clemson (-35) at N.C. State, 55-10
Army (-34.5) vs. Massachusetts, 63-7
Cincinnati (-34) vs. Connecticut, 48-3
Mississippi (-28) vs. New Mexico State, 41-3
Florida (-27) vs. Vanderbilt, 56-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- Cincinnati entered the weekend as the highest ranked team among the Group of Five candidates, and they did nothing to hurt their chances with a 48-3 whitewashing of Connecticut. The Bearcats covered the 34-point number, their first cover outings after opening the season 5-1 ATS. ... SMU was involved in another shootout, as they held off East Carolina by a 59-51 count in Dallas. The 'over' is now 9-0-1 in 10 games for the Mustangs this season. After opening the season 5-0 ATS, they're just 1-4 ATS across the past five, including non-covers in the past three. ... Tulsa entered Friday's game against UCF with nothing to play for but pride, as they have been eliminated from bowl contention. They showed tremendous pride in dealing the Golden Knights a 34-31 loss. While the Golden Hurricane entered on a five-game losing streak, they're now 3-1 ATS across the four outings. Looks like there will be no national championship claims this season in Orlando.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- Miami dumped Louisville by a 52-27 score, perhaps their most impressive showing of the season. The Hurricanes have won and covered a season-best three in a row after opening 3-4 SU/ATS, and they're now bowl eligible. ... Duke opened the season with a 4-2 SU/ATS mark, but they're on a three-game skid after falling at home to Notre Dame by a 38-7 count. They're also 0-3 ATS during the slid, and their offense has dried up. They're averaging just 12.7 PPG across the past three after opening with 40.4 PPG in a five-game span from Sept. 7-Oct. 12. ... Virginia held off Georgia Tech by a 33-28 score, as the Cavaliers moved to 7-3 SU. However, after opening 2-0 ATS, they're just 2-5-1 ATS across the past eight. The Yellow Jackets opened 0-6 ATS, but they're not quitting down the stretch, going 2-1 ATS across the past three. They're a friend to total bettors, too, as the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five contests. ... N.C. State has given Clemson some trouble in the past, including a straight-up victory at Carter-Finley Stadium back on Nov. 19, 2011, a game which I attended. The Pack won 37-13 that night as 7 1/2-point underdogs. There was no such trouble on Saturday. The Tigers mowed down the Pack 55-10 in chilly Raleigh. Remember when everyone was writing off the Tigers after their near-miss at UNC? Yeah, they're not going anywhere anytime soon.

BIG TEN

-- Illinois looked like the same old Illini on Saturday - for three quarters. They entered the fourth quarter down 31-10 at Michigan State, but this installment of the Illini is different. They really do fight. They outscored Sparty 27-3 in the final quarter, earning bowl eligibility in style with a 37-34 win. Remember all of those calls for Lovie Smith's job the past couple of seasons. He is safe now, and the calls are for Mark Dantonio's job in East Lansing these days. ... The big news in the Big Ten was the eligibility issue and suspension of DE Chase Young, the Heisman Trophy candidate. He reportedly took a small loan from a close family friend to fly his girlfriend out to the Rose Bowl to see him play. He paid the load back in the spring. Sounds harmless enough, but this is the archaic and selective punishing NCAA we're talking about here. Was Ohio State distracted? Nah. They embarrassed Maryland by a 73-14 score, their second time hitting the 70-point plateau this season. They were ranked No. 1 in the first official College Football Playoff rankings released this past Tuesday, but likely will slip due to LSU's win over Alabama in the SEC. ... Another playoff hopeful likely to tumble is Penn State, as they were ranked No. 4. They went to Minnesota, a team which received knocks because they "haven't played anybody", and lost to the Golden Gophers by a 31-26 score in an entertaining game. P.J. Fleck's rowed the boat at Western Michigan, and now he's rowing it in the Twin Cities. The Gophers are 6-0 ATS across the past six.

BIG 12

-- Iowa State gave Oklahoma all they could handle in a 42-41 loss in Norman. Inside the final minute HC Matt Campbell elected to go for two and the win after a late touchdown, but the attempt was picked off to avert disaster for the Sooners. The Cyclones have lost to both Oklahoma schools in the past two games, and they're still not yet eligible for a bowl at 5-4 SU with three to play. ... Texas held off Kansas State by a 27-24 score, although the Wildcats grabbed the cover. It was a rather curious line with K-State catching more than a touchdown against the skidding Longhorns. The Wildcats have covered four in a row, and the 'under' is 5-1 across their past six, as they have been a friend to bettors. Overall they're 7-2 ATS in nine outings. ... Baylor won a crazy game in TCU, 29-23 in overtime. This was not just a bad beat, but perhaps the worst one of the 2019 season (see below). The Bears improved to 9-0 SU, but they're just 5-4 ATS, while the 'over' is 3-1 across the past four. The over is 6-1 in TCU's past seven, too, although it probably shouldn't have hit. Again, see below.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic won the Shula Bowl, which is the annual meeting with South Florida rival Florida International. The Owls won 37-7, topping FIU for the 13th time in 17 meetings. More importantly to bettors, Lane Kiffin's Owls are 7-3 SU heading into a bye, temporarily in sole possession of first place in the East Division of C-USA. They're 7-1 SU across the past eight, and 5-1 ATS over the past six. They're still the only team to cover the spread against No. 1 Ohio State, too, and only team to score more than twice against the Buckeyes in a game this season. ... UAB is suddenly in freefall, as they were blasted 37-2 by Southern Miss. The Blazers opened 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS, but they're 0-2 SU/ATS over the past two with the 'under' hitting in both since they're averaging 4.5 PPG during the skid. ... Texas-San Antonio stole one at Old Dominion, winning 24-23. The Roadrunners are now 3-0 ATS and they have hit the 'over' in three straight, too. ... Louisiana Tech spanked North Texas, 52-17, as the Mean Green slipped to 4-6 SU, needing to win both of their final games to become bowl eligible. They're just 1-5 ATS in the past six, too.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- All three mid-week MAC games saw the underdog go 3-0 ATS, with Miami-Ohio winning outright at Ohio, 24-21. The 'over' covered in the pair of Tuesday battles, too, while Wednesday's Miami-Ohio contest hit the under thanks to a scoreless first quarter. ... If you had an 'under' ticket in the Ball State-Western Michigan game (myself included), you elected to receive your bad beat a few days early. See below.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- There were four games in the Mountain West, and all four were decided by four or fewer points, with the Wyoming-Boise State game going to overtime. The Cowboys were using a backup quarterback, as were the Broncos, so that explained the low-scoring affair. Even overtime wasn't enough to bail out 'over' bettors in this one. ... Nevada pulled off a surprising 17-13 road win against San Diego State, who, honestly, have been living rather dangerously. The Aztecs slipped to 1-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite, and perhaps a 17-point spread was a gift to bettors since the Aztecs have failed to scored more than 27 points in every game except at New Mexico State back on Sept. 14. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three, and 8-1 in their nine games overall. For the Wolf Pack, they attained bowl eligibility with the win, and they're now 6-4 SU while winning outright twice as double-digit 'dogs this season. ... San Jose State headed to the islands and lost an entertaining 42-40 game at Hawaii. The Spartans have dropped two in a row despite averaging 41.0 PPG, and they're 3-0 ATS in the past three, while going 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight overall.

PAC-12

-- There were just four total games in the Pac-12, with three games on Saturday. USC-Arizona State was an entertaining battle, as the Trojans won 31-26 in Tempe, just narrowly missing a 5.5-point cover. After opening 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road, the Trojans are 2-0 SU/0-1-1 ATS in the past two away from home. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the past three games following a 5-0 'under' run for the Men of Troy. ... Colorado snapped a five-game losing skid, rallying for a gutsy 17-13 win over Stanford. The Buffaloes still need to win their final two for bowl eligibility, and they have Washington and Utah remaining. Good luck with that! Speaking of Washington, they won 19-7 on Friday night against Oregon State, nearly shutting them out. In fact, the defense did not allow any points, as the Beavers scored their only TD on a pick-six.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- Arkansas ended up closely as short 'dogs at home against a Conference USA team, Western Kentucky. It gets worse. The Hogs were thrashed by the Hilltoppers by a 45-19 score, and the QB for WKU was a former Arkansas signal caller. It doesn't appear head coach Chad Morris is going to be employed much longer in Fayetteville, if he even lasts the week. ... Of course, the most highly-anticipated game of the season was LSU-Alabama. A lot of talk about Minnesota was "they haven't played anybody", but really, who has 'Bama played? Duke? New Mexico State? Ole Miss? A&M? None of the teams they played previously were in the rankings this week. LSU was ranked No. 2 in the College Playoff rankings, and they opened a 33-13 lead at halftime before hanging on for the 46-41 victory in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is 4-5 ATS this season, and they have yet to cover in consecutive games this season. ... Tennessee went up to Kentucky and it seemed like old times. They rallied for a 17-13 win after falling behind 13-0 after one quarter, and the Vols have now won three in a row and moved within one game of bowl eligibility. More importantly they're 5-0 ATS across the past five after going 1-4 ATS to start.

SUN BELT

-- South Carolina paid Appalachian State to come to Columbia to play. They didn't know they'd be getting an angry Mountaineers side after losing at home to Georgia Southern last week. App State pulled off a road win for the second time against a Power 5 team, just the seventh team to do that since 2001. ... Spreaking of Southern, they failed to cover over the momentum from their big win. They went to Troy and were handled, 49-28 as field-goal favorites. The Eagles slipped to 5-4 SU, and still need a win to attain bowl eligibility. The 'over' is 5-2 across the past seven outings. ... Georgia State was another field-goal favorite on the road to struggle, falling at Louisiana-Monroe by a 45-31 count, snapping a four-game winning streak. It was a rare non-cover for the Panthers, too, as they entered 5-1-2 ATS in the first eight outings.

Bad Beats

-- Perhaps the most raw beat of the season happened on the Baylor-TCU total. If you had an 'under' (48) ticket, you were on the right side. In fact, there were no touchdowns at all in regulation. The game went to overtime, and should have still cashed the under with just 18 total points on the board. However, the teams exchanged touchdowns in the first overtime, they extended touchdowns in the second OT, too, and you were already done with 46 on the board, regardless of what happened in triple. Baylor ended up winning 29-23, adding salt to the wound of anyone hold a TCU side ticket. The Horned Frogs probably should have covered in regulation, 9-6, but the Bears hit a clutch 51-yard field goal with :36 left to force OT.

-- As mentioned, the mid-week MAC game between Ball State and Western Michigan was a tough pill to swallow for 'under' bettors. The total was 64.5, and entering the fourth there were just 38 points on the board. Western Michigan took a 28-24 lead with 5:21 to go, and you were still in good shape. Ball State replied quickly re-taking a 31-28 lead with 3:24 to go. With just 1:05 remaining in regulation, the Broncos struck for a touchdown to win 35-31, flipping the total to 'over'.

-- The Florida State-Boston College (64.5) game was a rough one for 'under' bettors, too. Aren't they all? BC tied it up 24-24 with 2:33 to go. FSU answered with a 60-yard touchdown to re-take the lead, 31-24. This game did NOT go to overtime, yet under bettors still lost. Yes, a touchdown was scored by FSU with 1:03 to go, and then BC had a touchdown with just 14 seconds left to flip the total over. There were 41 points on the board with 2:34 to play. There were 28 points scored in the final 2:33. Ouch.