Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:56 AM

Total Moves - Week 12

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College Football Week 12 Total Moves

These total selections have completely hit a wall, as it was another goose egg last week in the end. Cincinnati put up 48 points on Connecticut and we still couldn't get 'over' the 54.5 number, while Tennessee and Kentucky couldn't put up more then 17 points in either half in the 17-13 win for the Volunteers. Whether it's a bit of bad luck, settling on the wrong games for this piece, or a little bit of all of the above, it's time for this totals piece to get back on track.

YTD: 10-13 ATS

Week 12 Total move to disagree with:

Cincinnati/USF from 49.5 to 47

Not afraid to go back to the well with this Bearcats team 'over' a total despite it not cashing for me last week. There are a few more positives surrounding this 'over' play then there were a week ago, and in terms of both teams carrying their own weight this time, I don't think that will be a problem.

For one, USF is a much better offensive (and overall) team then Connecticut, and this Bulls offense should be able to move the ball. Yes, there have been a couple of offensive clunkers of late, scoring just 3 points in a blowout loss to Navy, and just 7 points last week in a loss to Temple for USF. But after scoring 10 points or less this year, USF has bounced back with 10, 55, and 45 points in three opportunities this season, and I like their chances to put up 20+ this week. The Bulls average 24 points per game as it is, and being at home never hurts in that regard.

Secondly, USF being at home automatically means the Bearcats are on the road, and that's where they have had some concerns defensively this year.

Cincinnati has allowed at least 14 points against in all four of their road games this year, and are 3-1 O/U away from home. The lone 'under' came because Cincinnati couldn't pull their own weight for 'over' bettors in a 42-0 loss at Ohio State, and it's safe to say that likely won't happen here. But the Bearcats defense which has just not been the same away from home, will make a few more errors in this game – against a USF team that's trying to become Bowl eligible – and that's the main factor for this play.

The Bearcats will get theirs offensively, as this team has put up 38+ in three of their last four games overall, and have only fewer than 24 points once all year – that shutout loss to the Buckeyes. Cincinnati should get well into the 30's as the majority of teams to beat USF this year have, and I do expect the Bulls to have a much better showing then Connecticut did for me against this Bearcats defense a week ago.

As a program, USF is on a 17-7 O/U run in their last 24 games against a winning team, while the Bearcats are on a 7-1 O/U run off a SU win of 20+ points, and 7-2 O/U after allowing fewer than 20 points their last time out as well. All of those trends in support of the high side, should get us to the payout window this week with a Bearcats 'over'.

Week 12 Total move to agree with:

Alabama/Mississippi State from 63.5 to 61

It's not stating anything new when I say that Alabama is a program that hasn't lost much in recent years, so when they do lose it tends to make headlines. But as bettors, we can use rare situations like that to backtrack and dig into the past to try and predict future outcomes, and that's where Alabama's loss becomes much more important.

Did you know that Alabama is 1-5 O/U in their next game following a loss since the start of the 2014 season. Now that run includes CFB Bowl losses where the “next game” is Game 1 next year with a different roster wearing Crimson Tide, but if you want to count losses where there is still a game to be played in the same year, the number goes to 0-3 O/U. Not any of those six contests in any counting scenario finished with more then 55 total points scored, and most of them were dominating blowouts where the total score finished in the 30's and Alabama's foes finished with less than 10. Any way you put it, that does not bode well for Mississippi State's offense this week.

And then when you look at the two most recent losses in that stretch where Alabama gave up 40+ in defeat – Game 1 this year after last year's 44-16 loss to Clemson in the Championship, and their September 2015 loss to Ole Miss (43-37) – the following games saw Alabama opponents put up 3 and 0 points respectively. Again not a good omen for Mississippi State's offense this week.

So historically, going low for an Alabama game after a loss has done well, and specifically regarding this 2019 team the scenario seems to make plenty of sense as well.

Alabama can rest Tua as much or as little as they deem necessary this week as this should be another easy outright win for the Tide regardless. Now, to have a shot at getting back into the Top 4 teams in the country, style points are going to matter now, and Alabama's always been a program that gets their style points from their defensive work. Beating teams 34-3 and 48-10 are Alabama type scores, not 64-34.

Furthermore, Alabama has held Mississippi State to 7 points or less in three of the last four years, and six of the last eight overall, so you'd better believe Alabama's defense will show up. If there is anything that history has taught us about Alabama off a loss, is that Saban always makes sure his defense is ready to ball that next time out on the field, and this game shouldn't be any different.

The average total score in those 6 games post-Alabama loss going back to 2014 is just under 35 points per game. While we should see more then that get put up in this game, I wouldn't expect to see more then somewhere in the low 50's.

Other Notable Moves

Down

Fresno State-San Diego State: 44.5 to 42.5
Louisville-N.C. State: 58.5 to 56
Kentucky at Vanderbilt: 43.5 to 41.5

Up

Troy at Texas State: 61 to 63.5
Air Force at Colorado State: 61.5 to 63.5
Kansas at Oklahoma State: 65.5 to 67.5


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