Betting Recap - Week 12

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The largest underdogs to win straight up

West Virginia (+14, ML +450) at Kansas State, 24-20
Rice (+13.5, ML +425) at Middle Tennessee, 31-28
Syracuse (+9, ML +280) at Duke, 49-6
Kent State (+6, ML +200) vs. Buffalo, 30-27

The largest favorites to cover

Army (-36) vs. VMI, 47-6
Clemson (-34.5) vs. Wake Forest, 52-3
Oregon (-27) vs. Arizona, 34-6
Boise State (-26.5) vs. New Mexico, 42-9

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

--Cincinnati fell behind 10-0 at halftime at South Florida, and the Bulls never trailed...until :00 on the clock. The Bearcats kicked a 37-yard game-winning field goal at the buzzer to crush moneyline bettors of the Bulls, 20-17. USF improved to 6-3 ATS across the past nine outings. The 'under' is now 3-1-1 in the past five for the Bulls. ... Navy hit the road for their annual rivalry game and they were routed 52-20 at Notre Dame. The Middies entered the game ranked inside the Top 25, but that will be short-lived. ... Memphis got out to a bit of a sluggish start, but they recovered at Houston. The Tigers fell behind 17-7 after 15 minutes, but the Tigers outscored the Cougars 35-3 in the next two quarters to run away with the win. The total in this one had an interesting twist for some, too (see below).

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

--  Clemson rolled Wake Forest in Death Valley by a 52-3 count. A lot of people might discount the Demon Deacons, but they were trying to play after losing their leading WR Sage Surrattt, as well as their third-leading WR Scottie Washington. Either way, the Tigers were able to win their 11th of the season, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six since that near-miss at UNC back on Sept. 28, which appears to have served as a wake-up call. ... Duke used to be the doormat of the ACC, but head coach David Cutcliffe turned that around. However, injuries and inconsistent play have the Blue Devils reeling, and on the brink of missing a bowl. A very marginal Syracuse side routed them 49-6 at Wallace Wade, and now Duke needs wins at Wake and home to Miami to go bowling. ... Louisville earned bowl eligibility with a 34-20 win in chilly Raleigh over North Carolina State, 34-20. Head coach Dave Doeren's group find themselves in the same shape as their Triangle rivals from Duke, needing to win the final two to become bowl eligible. The road isn't as daunting, with trips to Georgia Tech and home to UNC on the remaining sked. The Wolfpack are a dismal 1-8 ATS across the past nine.

BIG TEN

-- Indiana gave Penn State a nice run, but the Hoosiers came up short in a 34-27 loss in Happy Valley. IU has covered three in a row, and six of the past seven. ... Michigan State-Michigan has been rather close  at times in recent years, but not in 2019. Head coach Mark Dantonio's seat is Hades hot, as the Wolverines spanked their rivals from East Lansing by a 44-10 count. Michigan took care of the 'over' (43) themselves, as the Wolverines covered for the fourth straight game, and sixth time in the past seven. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five and 6-2 in the past eight for Michigan. ... Minnesota headed to Iowa by a 23-19 score, as the boat is taking on a little water. The boat is also not sailing back to the Twin Cities with Floyd of Rosedale, as that remains in I-City. The Hawkeyes have covered three in a row, and the 'under' is 7-1-1 in the past nine for the Hawkeyes, too. ... Ohio State routed Rutgers in a 56-21 win in New Jersey. What's surprising by this is the Scarlet Knights are the first opponent to score more than twice in a game against the Buckeyes since Week 1 when FAU did it at Ohio Stadium, and that was also the last time the Buckeyes failed to cover.

BIG 12

-- West Virginia picked up a 24-20 win at Kansas State, as the Mountaineers snapped a five-game losing streak with the surprising win. They still have to win their final two to become bowl eligible. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for West Virginia. ... Texas was tripped up on the road against Iowa State, falling 23-21. While the Longhorns covered as touchdown underdogs, they slipped to 6-4 SU. They're now 1-3 ATS in the past four outings, and the 'under' has cashed in the past two for the 'Horns. ... Baylor fired out to a 28-3 lead at home against Oklahoma, but QB Jalen Hurts led the Sooners all the way back in the biggest comeback victory in school history, and without WR CeeDee Lamb. When the dust cleared it was 34-31 in favor of the road team. While Bears side bettors still managed the cover, it was a bitter pill for anyone holding moneyline tickets for Baylor. 

CONFERENCE USA

-- Marshall handled Louisiana Tech in Huntington on Friday, 31-10. The Thundering Herd handed the Bulldogs just their second loss of the season, and the Herd pulled into a tie with FAU for the top spot in the East Division. Marshall is now 3-1 ATS across the past four after going 1-5 ATS in the first six to start. ... Rice picked up its first victory of the season after nine straight setbacks, surprising Middle Tennessee by a 31-28 count. The Owls snapped a four-game non-cover skid, too. ... Southern Miss posted a 36-17 win at Texas-San Antonio, and this one was a two-way bad beat. See the recap below. ... Alabama-Birmingham took care of Texas-El Paso by a 36-17 score on the road. UAB snapped a two-game mini-skid and power outage, improving to 7-3 SU/ATS. They're 4-0 SU/ATS in their four home games against FBS opponents at home, and the over is 3-0 in their past three home contests.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Central Michigan and Ball State played a very entertaining 45-44 game which went to the Chippewas. They fell behind 27-11 at halftime, but used 34 second-half points to win for the fifth time in the past six games while also moving to 5-1 ATS across the span. The 'over' has connected in six straight for CMU, and nine of 11 games overall. They'll finish up against Toledo in the season finale on Nov. 29. That was the only MACtion on Saturday, as all of the other games took place mid-week. Road teams ended up 3-2 SU, with underdogs going 3-2 ATS. There was a bad beat in the Thursday battle between Buffalo-Kent State (see below). 

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- The Air Force-Colorado State game had a crazy finish. If you were holding a Colorado State (+10.5) ticket, see below...although you already know what happened. ... Hawaii returned to the mainland and picked up a 21-7 win at UNLV, a rare under result for the Warriors. The last under for Hawaii was also in the state of Nevada against the Wolf Pack in Reno back on Sept. 28. Since then the Warriors threw up five consecutive over results. ... New Mexico-Boise State figured to be a little more competitive than expected with a third-string QB in there for the Cowboys. QB Jaylon Henderson made his first start with QBs Hank Bachmeier and Chase Cord nursing lower-body injuries. The last time Boise State used three different starting signal callers in a season was 1993. Now, they have three starting QBs with a win. Henderson and the Broncos rolled to a 42-9 win, as the Lobos slipped to 2-8 SU. UNM is also 2-7 ATS across the past nine, while the 'under' is 6-1 in the past seven for the Lobos.

PAC-12

-- USC-Californa was expected to be a close contest, especially with QB Chase Garbers (shoulder) back under center for the first time since late September. But he was knocked out again, and the Trojans rolled to a 41-17 road win. After opening the season 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS on the road, the Trojans have rattled off three straight wins on the road while going 1-1-1 ATS. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four for SC, too. ... Utah is doing its best to stay in the chase for a playoff spot, as they routed UCLA by a 49-3 count. Most shops saw this total push as a result. The Utes have won and covered six in a row since a 30-23 loss at USC on Sept. 20. ... The Pac-12 have two potential playoff contenders, as Oregon also kept hope alive with a convincing 34-6 win over Arizona. The Ducks are 9-0 SU since a neutral-site loss to Auburn on Aug. 31. They're also 4-1 ATS across the past five. 

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

--  Alabama had the biggest headline in their win over Mississippi State, but it wasn't because of the results on the scoreboard. By now everyone knows QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip and fracture in the loss, and his regular season is over, and perhaps his college career. Now it's in the hands of QB Mac Jones to finish up the season. Obviously the Crimson Tide still have plenty left to play for, and Jones will get a tune-up against Western Carolina next week before battling Auburn in the regular season finale. ... The Tigers fell 21-14 to Georgia, showing a lot of heart after falling behind 21-0 after three quarters. However, the Tigers were unable to make it all the way back. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past thee for Auburn, but they're now 2-3 SU/ATS across the past five after a 5-0 SU/ATS start. ... South Carolina-Texas A&M was a battle between a banged up unit and a healthy unit, and it showed. The Aggies throttled the Gamecocks 30-6 at Kyle Field in a low-scoring game. The Aggies have won four in a row to move to 7-3 SU, and they're 3-1 ATS across the past four. It doesn't get any easier, as they have to face Georgia and LSU, both on the road.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia State gave Appalachian State a nice little run for a while, but the Mountaineers showed why they're the first Sun Belt team ever in the CFP rankings. The Mountaineers fell behind 21-14 after one quarter, but outscored the Panthers 42-6 over the final 45 to win it by 29 and keep their hopes of a New Year's Day bowl game alive. ... Troy posted an emphatic 63-27 win at Texas State, keeping their hopes of a bowl game alive. They improved to 5-5 SU, and they have covered back-to-back games for the first time this season. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four, too, as the Trojans have scored 33 or more points in five straight outings. ... Georgia Southern took care of Louisiana-Monroe by a 51-29 count, as the 'over' connected. We had just 45 points on the board with a total of 57.5, but the teams combined for 35 points in the final quarter as the over easily hit. The Eagles, the only team to slay App State this season, are now 5-1 SU across the past six while going 3-1 ATS in the past four. The 'over' is also 3-0 in the past three.

Bad Beats

-- There was still 4:59 left on the clock when the total changed from 'under' to 'over' in Memphis-Houston, so it wasn't your definition 'bad beat'. However, with 4:59 to go, the Cougars blocked a punt and recovered it in the end zone to close the lead of the Tigers to 45-27, pushing the total over by a half-point.

-- With 1:22 to go, and Colorado State driving, Air Force had a 99-yard interception return for touchdown to take a 38-21 lead. Instead of making it a one-score game, and a certain cover for the Rams, they ended up going down 17 and they never recovered.

-- The Southern Miss-UTSA game had a total of 55.5 and USM was favored by 17. The Golden Eagles were never covering until 4:45 to go, when USM took a 36-17 lead. The Roadrunners fought back, getting inside the red zone. However, they failed to get a score in the final minute, crushing UTSA side bettors and 'over' bettors alike.

-- Lastly, on Thursday night it was a bad beat if you had Buffalo laying the points. The Bulls were up 27-6 heading into the fourth quarter, and under (55.5) bettors were feeling pretty good about themselves, too. The Golden Flashes erased the 21-point lead and they forced OT, tied 27-27. The Golden Flashes ended up taking it 30-27 in overtime, stunning under bettors and Buffalo side bettors alike.