Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:55 PM
Total Moves - Week 14
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College Football Week 14 Total Moves
Not sure I could have been more wrong in going against the move to the 'over' last week in the UCLA/USC game, as that was about as easy of a win as it gets for 'over' backers. Thankfully, the SMU/Navy game managed to stay 'under' all of their numbers in the 35-28 Navy win to salvage a split for the card.
As we arrive at the final week of the regular season this week, hopefully we can end the season on a high note with this week's two plays, and erase what's been a bad month with these selections. Sweeping the board will mitigate some of the damage the past few weeks have brought, and it would be a nice way to end a holiday weekend. YTD: 12-15 ATS
Week 14 Total move to disagree with:
Texas A&M/LSU from 61 to 64
At 7-4 SU, the Texas A&M Aggies may not look like they've had a great season to some, but when you consider their four defeats came to Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and Clemson – all teams currently ranked in the Top 15 and three of them ranked in the Top 5 – that perspective should be easy to change. Jimbo Fisher's squad has made the most of what was a brutal schedule coming in, and they've got one more stiff challenge in #2 LSU this week. At this point, if LSU, Clemson, and Georgia all hold their current positions and make the CFB playoff, you'd better believe that Jimbo Fisher is probably going to field some calls about scouting those teams from others involved.
But the common thread in nearly all of those games against top teams is that they were lower scoring games for the Aggies. Yes, they went 2-2 O/U against Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia, but only the Alabama game was a relative shootout (47-28) and that came after a bye week for the Aggies. The other three games finished with 48 points or less scored, and even including the Alabama result, the average points put up in those games clocks in at 47.25 per game. You don't hang tough against those types of quality opponents (Texas A&M went 2-2 ATS in those games) without a stout defense yourself, and going up against the Heisman front-runner in QB Joe Burrow this week will be a challenge I expect the Aggies to be ready for.
I would guess that a big part of this 'over' move has more to do with LSU and their explosive offense, as they've put up plenty of points on everyone this year. The Tigers have scored 40 or more points in all but two of thier games this season, and have hit 50 or more five times. It hasn't really mattered who they've faced, they've managed to score and that's likely a big driving force behind this total bump.
Another potential reason for the spike is the fact that these two played that epic 7-OT game last year that ended 74-72 in Texas A&M's favor and forced the OT rules to be changed this season. It's hard to forget outlier games like that as a bettor, and when this rivalry has gone 'over' the total in three straight years and at least 66 points have been scored in all of them, it's easy to look at the 'over' here, especially with LSU's offense being what it is this season.
But with the SEC championship game on deck, there is a scenario where LSU may not be as sharp as many expect on offense for this game, if they indeed are looking at what lies ahead for them. Even far from their best, the Tigers should be able to get the SU win here, but as the Aggies have shown against these quality foes, they won't go down easy. They'll look to shorten the game when they can to keep Burrow and company on the sidelines, and if this game is played where the winner ends up in the high-20's or mid-30's, that's where the Aggies would prefer it.
All three of the Aggies true road games this year have been easy 'under' winners – which suggests their defense knows how to travel – and even going back multiple years, the Aggies are on a 8-20 O/U run on the road against a foe with a winning record at home.
If Burrow and LSU's offense goes off then so be it, this 'under' play likely won't get there, but I don't believe that will be the case against a battle-tested team like the Aggies. I've got this game peaking in the high-50's when all is said and done, and the 'over' move to the current number gives that line of thought too much wiggle room to pass up.
Week 14 Total move to agree with:
Indiana/Purdue from 56 to 57
This total initially received some 'under' action before being bumped up to it's current number, and the move upwards is one I've got to agree with.
Indiana is a team that's seen either themselves or their opponent (or both) put up 30+ points in every single game this year, while Purdue has had at least one team in their game put up at least 24 points in every single one of their games this year. Given that the spread is Indiana -7 currently, getting at least a 30-24 type game right off the bat is a pretty good starting point for this 'over' play.
You would still need another score to surpass this total though, and that shouldn't be a problem, as neither team is all that exceptional on defense, and that's especially the case for the Hoosiers on the road. Indiana gives up 422.2 yards per road game this year, basically the same number Purdue allows overall (428.5 yards allowed/game) which suggests we should get upwards of 850 total yards of offense in this game. Barring numerous red zone turnovers, 800+ yards offensively should lead to seeing at least 60 total points scored.
Finally, this rivalry has had some interesting results over the years in terms of totals, and it all depends on who is at home. This year it's Purdue, and the last four times the Boilermakers have been hosts, the 'over' has gone 4-0. That run should continue to hold true this season.
Other Notable Moves
Wake Forest-Syracuse: 67 to 69
Middle Tennessee State-Western Kentucky: 49.5 to 46.5
Fresno State-San Jose State: 65.5 to 62.5
Notre Dame-Stanford: 51 to 47.5
Miami, Fl.-Duke: 47 to 45