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College Football

Saturday’s Bowl Tips

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
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Camping World Bowl (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Notre Dame vs. Iowa State

Camping World Bowl Betting History

-- The independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-2 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) face off with the Iowa State Cyclones (7-5 straight up, 5-6-1 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla.

-- The FightIng Irish have a rich bowl history, but surprisingly they're 18-19 in their 37 bowl games overall, including an 18-14 loss against Florida State back on Dec. 29, 2011 in this very stadium in the then-named Champs Sports Bowl. They were also tossed aside 30-3 by Clemson is last season's Cotton Bowl in the first-round of the College Football playoffs.

-- The Cyclones of Iowa State do not have as great of a bowl record as Notre Dame. They didn't even play in their first bowl game, surprisingly, until 1971. They were 0-4 in the 70's, and they didn't break through for their first bowl victory until 2000 in the Insight.com Bowl against Pittsburgh, 37-29, behind QB Sage Rosenfels. That was one of just four wins in 14 bowl tries, including a loss last season in the Alamo Bowl against Washington State. This will be the second-ever trip to Florida during bowl season, with Iowa State losing 28-12 in the Hall of Fame Classic in 1978 against Texas A&M in Tampa.

-- Notre Dame had an extremely challenging schedule, and after 10 wins they likely were hoping to land in a more prestigious bowl with a better opponent. But this is a nice matchup for them, and with a chip on their shoulder they could be a dangerous opponent. Their only losses this season came at Georgia, 23-17 on Sept. 21, and at Michigan by a 45-14 count on Oct. 26. They have wins over bowl teams Louisville, Virginia, USC, Virginia Tech and Navy, and they enter on a five-game winning streak while covering the past four.

-- Iowa State was tripped up 27-17 at Kansas State in their rinale, and they dropped each of their past two true road games, including a 42-41 shootout loss at Oklahoma, a playoff team, on Nov. 9, in a highly entertaining game. They also suffered a setback against Oklahoma State at home, Iowa at home and on the road against Baylor. While they have five losses overall, three losses were by a total of four points, and all five setbacks were by a total of just 21 points. They'll fight right to the bitter end, and have the offensive firepower to stay in it.

-- The Fighting Irish ranked 45th in total offense with 431.3 yards per game, while posting 253.0 passing yards to check in 49th in the nation. They were also 46th in the country with 178.3 rushing yards per contest while ranking 13th with 37.1 points per contest. Defensively the Irish were stout, allowing just 325.6 total yards per outing to rank 21st, while ending up third with 163.7 passing yards per outing. If they fail anywhere, it's against the run, as they yielded 161.9 rushing yards per game, but they allowed just 18.7 points per outing to rank 14th.

-- The Cyclones ranked 20th with 459.0 total yards per game, while ranking ninth with 318.3 passing yards per outing. On the run they were just 96th, posting 140.7 yards per outing, while averaging 34.1 PPG to check in 26th. Defensively they were so-so, but in a pass-happy Big 12, their numbers were pretty good. They were 44th in total yards allowed at 362.2, while ranking 71st against the pass with 228.3 yards per game. On the ground, Iowa State allowed just 133.8 yards to rank 33rd, and they coughed up 25.3 PPG to rank 52nd.

 -- Iowa State QB Brock Purdy rolled up 3,760 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he also ran for eight scores. Notre Dame's Ian Book can also sling it, posting 2,792 yards with 33 touchdowns and just six interceptions while running for 537 yards and four more touchdowns. With those two under center on both sides, we could have quite the aerial show.

-- The Fighting Irish have covered four in a row, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts, too. They're also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games, with that non-cover last season in the Cotton Bowl vs. Clemson.

-- The Cyclones are 19-6-1 ATS in the past 26 as an underdog, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven non-conference games, and 1-4-1 ATS in the past six overall. They're also 0-4 ATS in the past four neutral-site games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances in the month of December.

-- It's all under, all the time, for the Cyclones lately. The under is 21-10-2 in their past 33 games overall, and 6-2-1 in the past nine non-conference tilts. The under is 7-0-1 in their past eight neutral-site games, and 6-0-1 in the past seven bowl tilts. The under is also 4-0-1 in the past five in a bowl as an underdog, while going 9-2-1 in the past 12 against winning teams.

-- The under is 5-1 in Notre Dame's past six neutral-site battles, while going 5-2 in their past seven as a favorite.


Cotton Bowl Classic (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Memphis vs. Penn State

Cotton Bowl Betting History

-- The Cotton Bowl Classic features a battle between the high-flying Memphis Tigers (12-1 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference against the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big Ten Conference at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex.

-- Penn State was so-so offensively, ranking 64th with 403.7 total yards per game and 69th with 228.7 passing yards per contest. On the ground they managed 175.0 yards per outing to check in 49th, while averaging 34.3 points per game to end up 24th in the land. Defensively they were a lockdown team, ranking 23rd in total yards allowed (330.5), 78th with 232.5 passing yards allowed and just seventh in points per game allowed at 14.1. Against the run, a key for Penn State in this game, they were fifth overall with just 98.0 rushing yards per game allowed.

-- Memphis, the top Group of Five entrant, can really score. They're 10th in the nation with 480.7 total yards per game, 26th in passing yards (284.5) and 34th in rushing yards (196.2), while posting 40.5 points per game to rank eighth in the country. Defensively they can hold their own, ranking 49th with 372.3 total yards allowed, 34th against the pass (200.7) and 79th against the rush (171.6) while allowing 24.4 points per game to check in 76th.

-- Tigers freshman RB Kenneth Gainwell is a handful, as he rumbled for 1,425 yards on the ground while gathering 12 touchdowns. QB Brady White can sling it, too, though, going for 3,560 passing yards, so they're anything but one dimensional.

-- Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford led the way with 2,521 yards, hitting WR KJ Hamler for 858 of those yards. Yetur Gross-Matos posted eight sacks. Clifford (leg) and Gross-Matos (arm) are each listed on the injury report, but both fully expected to play.

-- Memphis is hoping to turn things around in bowl games. They won their first two postseason appearances in 1971, and then 2003. However, they 2-7 since, including four straight bowl losses. They fell 37-34 to Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl last season.

-- Penn State has a lengthy bowl history, and most of it good. However, they haven't been great lately, going 3-6 SU in the past nine, including a loss to Kentucky in last season's Citrus Bowl. They have won two of five bowl trips under current head coach James Franklin. The last time they faced an AAC team in the postseason they lost to Houston in the TicketCity Bowl in the Cotton Bowl, 30-14, back on Jan. 2, 2012.

-- The Tigers are colkd against the number, going 4-9 ATS in the past 13 as an underdog, 1-6 ATS in the past seven neutral-site games and 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl appearances. In addition, they're 1-10 ATS in the past 11 games in the month of December.

-- Conversely, Penn State is 4-0 ATS in the past four December showings, while going 8-3-1 ATS in the past 12 non-conference tilts. They're also 20-9-2 ATS in the past 31 against winning teams, but just 1-4 ATS in the past five as a favorite.

-- For Memphis, the over is 7-3 in the past 10 games overall, while going 12-4 in the past 16 non-conference tilts and 6-2 in the past eight against winning teams. The over is also 10-2 in the past 12 as an underdog.

-- The over has hit in each of the past four neutral-site games for Penn State, while going 4-1 in their past five bowl appearances. The over is 8-1 in their past nine non-conference battles, too, while going 4-1 in the past five vs. AAC foes. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 overall for Penn State, however.

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