Jan 09, 2020
CFP Final - Best Prop Plays
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College Football Playoff Championship
Expert Prop Picks
Clemson vs. LSU
-- The Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers square off in the national title game in New Orleans, La. on Monday night, and the player props, game props and team props are starting to roll in. We'll take a look at the DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only) and select the best plays for Monday's big event.
As far as the player props are concerned, you can select the first player to score. I am feeling LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase (+600) as the game's first player to score a touchdown. The LSU offense rolled up a ridiculous seven passing touchdowns by QB Joe Burrow in the semifinal game against Oklahoma. What's interesting is that WR Justin Jefferson (+650) had four touchdown scores, including the game's first, while Terrace Marshall Jr. (+1200) had two scores and Thaddeus Moss (+1800) had the other. If you're feeling LSU to score the first touchdown, Chase has to be on your radar. He was their big-play receiver all season, going for 75 receptions, 1,559 yards and 18 touchdowns, tied for first in the nation.
If you're feeling Clemson to score the first touchdown of the game, RB Travis Etienne (+400) is a rather heavy favorite, along with LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+400). However, instead of the first touchdown of the game, I'd rather play the running back to score the last touchdown. Etienne and Edwards-Helaire are each (+400) to score the final touchdown, too. Whomever you're deciding to back, toss in a small-unit play on their lead back to score the final touchdown, too, just for a little fun.
As far as the quarterbacks are concerned, Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence (Under 294.5, -110) is the play. He failed to go over that mark vs. Ohio State in the semifinal, and he has gone for 295 or more passing yards in just three of his games so far this season, including the South Carolina game when he was right at 295. He doesn't need to pass for big yardage to win, and showed he can do it with his legs, while also letting Etienne do a lot of heavy lifting.
For LSU QB Joe Burrow (Over 365.5 yards, -110) is the play. The Heisman Trophy winner has just rolled up huge yards at every turn. He has 321 or more yards in eight straight outings, including 493 yards against Oklahoma in the semifinal. He went over 365.5 yards in six of his past 13 games, too, including the career high total vs. Oklahoma.
As far as Burrow's rushing total (31.5 yards), take the (Under-129). If he is passing, and he will A LOT, he won't be running. In fact, he had just 21 yards rushing in that semi win over Oklahoma. He has also eclipsed that total just once in the past five games, and twice in the past eight.
Also in the rushing department, LSU ranked 24th against the run with 120.3 yards allowed this season, while Clemson yielded just 106.2 yards per game, ranking ninth in the nation. RBs QB Travis Etienne and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are special players, but I'd take the (Under 94.5, -110 - Etienne) and (Under 99.5, Edwards-Helaire, -110) on both of them.
For receiving, Clemson WR Amari Rodgers (Under 35.5, yards, -110) is a strong play. He had one grab for 38 yards in the semfinal win over Ohio State. In the final two games of the regular season he amassed just five catches for 15 yards. Usually, he sees the ball two or three times per game max, and he averaged just 14.9 yards per reception. He will go under, and is the safest play of all receivers.
The best value for an over play might be LSU WR Terrace Marshall Jr. (Over 60.5 yards, -110). He was a favorite of Burrow in the past two games, posting five grabs for 89 yards and two scores in the SEC Championship Game, and six grabs for 80 yards and two scores vs. Oklahoma in the CFP Semi. He eclipsed the 60.5-yard plateau in five of the past 10 games.
Looking at the first team to score odds, it's Clemson (+107) and LSU (-143). Go with the value here, which is the Tigers. They have a reliable kicker, too, so a field goal would win it.
As far as the 'Game Specials', take a look at the first offensive play from scrimmage being a pass. I think each of these teams will want to get their quarterback featured early and often. The Pass (-110) prop as the first play is attractive.
As far as the total yards of longest touchdown (void if no touchdowns) - including overtime, the Under 64.5 yards (-110) is a strong play. Both of these defenses are strong, and I don't see either yielding a huge scoring play to the other side.
Will a point be scored in the first 4:59 of the game? I think both sides will be feeling each other out early, and the answer is NO (+108), which is plus-money and a value over YES (-134). This won't be a defensive slog all game, but there will be nerves early on, especially for LSU, as Clemson has done this before.
For the team props portion, and the total points by Clemson (31.5 - Over +100, Under -121) and LSU (36.5 - Over -125, Under +103), this is an interesting play. Both of these teams can score plenty of points. However, the defenses on both sides are sick, too. LSU allowed 21.2 PPG to rank 27th in the country, while Clemson owns the No. 1 scoring defense in the land with 10.6 PPG allowed. I like LSU (Under +103) as a nice value. I don't trust LSU's defense as much, as like Clemson (Over +100).
Last, but not least, there is only one real certainty on Monday. The Tigers will win. Ha.
Prop Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only)