ACC Betting Report – Week 7

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

21 minute read

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The Atlantic Coast Conference will have all 15 schools in action for Week 7 for a total of seven conference games, and one non-conference tilt.

All games are scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020.

Conference

• Clemson at Georgia Tech
• Pittsburgh at Miami-Florida
• Louisville at Notre Dame
• Duke at North Carolina State
• Virginia at Wake Forest
• North Carolina at Florida State
• Boston College at Virginia Tech

Non-conference

• Liberty at Syracuse

Clemson at Georgia Tech (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Clemson -27, O/U 63.5

• Last Week: Clemson W 42-17 vs. Miami-Florida (-14, 60.5)
• Last Week: Louisville W 46-27 vs. Louisville (+4.5, 63)

The defending champion Tigers passed their first real test of the 2020 season, flexing a little muscle against challenge Miami in Death Valley. Clemson held a 21-10 lead at halftime, and they outscored the Hurricanes 14-0 in the third quarter to run away and hide. When the dust clear, Dabo Swinney's group had an impressive 25-point win over Miami. For 'The U', it's back to the drawing board - and the little kids table for the time being. The 'under' hung on for Clemson, and is now 3-1 in four outings so far. The cover was the first of the season for Clemson, who has scored 37 or more points in each of their five outings. As far as Georgia Tech, they were locked in a dogfight with Louisville last Friday night, trailing 27-26 after 45 minutes. Then, true freshman QB Jeff Sims and the Yellow Jackets outscored the Cards 20-0 in the final quarter for their most impressive win in years. The Ramblin' Wreck is no longer a pushover, folks, and the triple-option offense is a thing of the past. The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings, with the under 5-2-1 in the previous eight battles in Atlanta. The favorite, each time Clemson, is 4-0-1 in the past five in this series.

Pittsburgh at Miami-Florida (ACC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Miami -10.5, O/U 48.5

• Last Week: Pittsburgh L 30-31 at Boston College (-6.5, 43)
• Last Week: Miami L 17-42 at Clemson (+14, 60.5)

Pitt blew it in overtime last week in Chestnut Hill, falling 31-30 against Boston College as 6.5-point favorites. After covering against FCS Austin Peay in Week 1, the Panthers are 0-3-1 ATS in their past four. The 'over' has connected in each of the past two outings after the 'under' hit in the first two against FBS foes. The Hurricanes were dropped 42-17 at Clemson last Saturday, failing to cover for the first time in four outings this season. They'll look to take out their frustrations on the Panthers, a team they fell against at Heinz Field last season by a 16-12 score on Oct. 26 as 4.5-point favorites. Pitt is 0-5-1 ATS in the past six ACC games, and the under is 15-4 in their past 19 road games, and 11-4 in the past five 15 conference tilts. While the road team has cashed in seven of the past 10 in this series, Pitt is 1-4 ATS in the previous five meetings with the under also hitting four of the past five.

Liberty at Syracuse (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Liberty -3.5, O/U 53

• Last Week: Liberty W 40-7 vs. Louisiana-Monroe (-17, 64)
• Last Week: Syracuse L 24-38 vs. Duke (+2.5, 52.5)

The Flames of Liberty put their 4-0 record on the line at the Carrier Dome. They roughed up UL Monroe by a 40-7 score last week, covering a 17-point number. This is their first game against a Power 5 team this season, so it will be a true test even if the Orange do enter with a 1-3 SU record. The Flames have coughed up just seven points in each of the past two games while averaging 33.5 PPG in four outings overall, 28th in the nation. Liberty's calling card is their amazing rush offense, piling up 250.8 yards per game on the ground. Their defense is also stout, allowing just 260.0 total yards per game to rank fifth, while allowing 158.3 passing yards per contest to check in sixth. Liberty is allowing just 18.0 PPG to check in 11th in the country. The Flames also have a plus-3 turnover ratio.

The Orange are licking their wounds after a 38-24 setback against Duke at home, showing why they were underdogs at home despite the fact the Blue Devils were previously winless. Syracuse hasn't been able to generate any offense, posting just 254.0 total yards per game, and they have just 77.5 rushing yards per game to check in 73rd in the country. Their 19.3 PPG also ranks 70th overall. Defensively they're not much better, allowing 475.8 total yards (67th) and 231.3 rushing yards (71st) per game. Surprisingly, they rank No. 1 overall in takeaways with eight, and their plus-7 turnover ratio is the only thing keeping them afloat.

Louisville at Notre Dame (NBC, 2:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Notre Dame -16.5, O/U 64

• Last Week: Louisville L 27-46 at Georgia Tech (-4.5, 63)
• Last Week: Notre Dame W 42-26 vs. Florida State (-21, 53.5)

The Cardinals opened the season with a 35-21 win and cover against Western Kentucky, but it's been downhill ever since. They led after three quarters last week, but were outscored 20-0 in the final 15 minutes at Georgia Tech to take a 46-27 loss. They're 0-2-1 ATS across the past three outings, and only one of those was a one-score game. The 'over' is 3-1 in four contests for the Cards, too. Louisville has shown a balanced offense, posting 424.3 total yards (32nd in the nation), 246.5 passing yards (32nd) and 177.8 rushing yards (31st) per game while posting 29.0 PPG. The problem for Louisville is that they're turning it over too much, and their defense isn't opportunistic. They have a minus-5 turnover ratio, posting just one takeaway defensively.

The Fighting Irish has played three games, and they have posted three wins. After a bout with COVID-19, they were back in action for the first time since Sept. 19, thumping Florida State 42-26 in South Bend. Somehow, this will be their fourth game of the season, and their fourth game at home, so it's hard to say how good the Irish is without a true road outing to date. They're running the ball without authority, registering 270.7 rushing yards per game to rank 5th overall, and they're playing great defense, allowing just 13.0 PPG to check in eighth in the nation. These teams met last season in the opener on Sept. 2, and the Irish won 35-17 in Louisville, narrowly missing a cover on a 19-point line.

Duke at N.C. State (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: N.C. State -4.5, O/U 59.5

• Last Week: Duke W 38-24 at Syracuse (-2.5, 52.5)
• Last Week: N.C. State W 38-21 at Virginia (+7, 58.5)

The Blue Devils finally got off the schneid last week with a 38-24 win in Syracuse, covering a 2.5-point number. They were favorites despite the fact they were winless, and they showed why the books trusted them. It was the second straight cover for Duke, and they're 2-1 ATS in three games on the road this season. While this is a short jaunt down NC 147 and I-40 over to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, it is another road contest for David Cutcliffe's bunch. The 'over' has hit in three in a row for Duke, mainly due to deficiencies on defense. They have allowed 38, 38 and 24 across the past three. Offensively, Duke has picked up the pace, posting 29.7 PPG over the past three after managing just 9.5 PPG in the first two at Notre Dame and against B.C.

The Wolfpack have been an exciting team, that's for sure. They had a video game-like experience in their opener against Wake Forest, winning 45-42, and they fell 45-24 in their first road test at Virginia Tech the following week. They rebounded with a rousing 30-29 road win at Pittsburgh, and they stopped Virginia 38-21 in Charlottesville last week. They'll bring a two-game winning streak into their first home game since Sept. 19, and they're 3-1 ATS overall. The 'over' has also cashed in each of their four outings, as the Wolfpack has averaged 34.3 PPG, while yielding 34.3 PPG.

There aren't many positives about COVID-19, obviously, but the re-working of the ACC schedule in football has given us our first Duke-N.C. State game since Nov. 9, 2013. That's ridiculous, considering these schools are in the same conference, and separated by only 20 miles. However, that's how it works with two teams playing in separate divisions in a normally 14-team league.

Virginia at Wake Forest (ACC, 4:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Virginia -3, O/U 62.5

• Last Week: Virginia L 21-38 vs. N.C. State (-7, 58.5)
• Last Game: Wake Forest W 66-14 vs. Campbell (-34.5, 68.5)

We get a meeting of 1-2 SU teams in the Triad on Saturday afternoon, and the Hoos limp in as slight favorites. Virginia has dumped at home by N.C. State, 38-21, failing to come close to covering as seven-point favorites. The one constant for UVA this season has been defense, or lack thereof. They're allowing 33.0 PPG, so it's no surprise the 'over' has connected in all three of their games to date.

The Demon Deacons were the only ACC team off last weekend. The last time we saw them they were throttling Campbell of the FCS, 66-14, back on Oct. 2. They'll have had 15 days to prepare for the Cavaliers. In their two league games, they are allowing 41.0 PPG (vs. Clemson, at N.C. State), so hopefully the Deacs worked on tackling drills during their two-week break. Wake ranks 64th in the nation with 462.0 total yards allowed, 54th in passing yards allowed with 270.3 and 59th in rushing yards given up, yielding 191.7.

North Carolina at Florida State (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: North Carolina -13.5, O/U 64

• Last Week: North Carolina W 56-45 vs. Virginia Tech (-3.5, 59.5)
• Last Game: Florida State L 26-42 at Notre Dame (+21, 53.5)

The Tar Heels flexed a little muscle with 56 points scored against Virginia Tech last week in a Top 20 battle at Kenan, but they did cough up 45 points. In fact, the defense is a bit of a concern, although Florida State has been a shell of itself this season. UNC's offense has been on fire, rolling up 506.7 total yards per game to rank seventh in the land, and they're eighth overall with 245.0 rushing yards per game. The Heels are also averaging 37.7 PPG, checking in 19th overall. Defensively, they weren't too bad until Saturday, so hopefully that was just an anomaly.

Florida State is struggling under new head man Mike Norvell, winning just once in four games, including 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in three games against FBS opponents. The latest setback was a 42-26 loss at Notre Dame last week, although they did earn their first cover of the season. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for FSU, mainly due to their struggles on defense. In the past two against FBS teams, they have coughed up a total of 94 points.

Boston College at Virginia Tech (ACC, 8:00 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Virginia Tech -11.5, O/U 62

• Last Week: Boston College W 31-30 vs. Pittsburgh (+6.5, 43)
• Last Game: Virginia Tech L 45-56 at North Caorlina (+3.5, 59.5)

The Eagles pulled out a thrilling 31-30 overtime win over Pittsburgh last week at home, now they hit the road for Blacksburg. Boston College dumped Virginia Tech 35-28 at home last season as 4.5-point underdogs, and they won their most recent trip to Virginia Teach on Nov. 3, 2018, winning 31-21 as two-point favorites. The last time the Hokies beat the Eagles was Oct. 7, 2017, over three calendar years ago. Boston College has covered 13 of their past 18 games on the road, and they're 19-7 ATS in the past 26 as a road 'dog.

For the Hokies, they're licking their wounds after coughing up 56 points in Chapel Hill last weekend, suffering the first setback of the season. The last team they likely wanted to see is B.C., as the Eagles have handled them in recent season. The Hokies haven't covered since the opener on Sept. 26 against N.C. State, going 0-2 ATS in the past two, while the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 to date. That's because the offense has been tremendous, averaging 299.3 rushing yards per game to rank third in the nation, while posting 42.7 PPG to check in seventh. Defensively, though...ugh. They're 68th overall with 484.0 total yards allowed, and 69th in both rushing yards allowed (225.7) and points allowed (37.0).

ACC Betting Results - 2020

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