Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:52 AM

SEC Betting Notebook - Week 9

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Week 9 SEC Schedule

  • Georgia at Kentucky
  • LSU at Auburn
  • Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
  • Mississippi State at Alabama
  • Arkansas at Texas A&M
  • Missouri at Florida

How to Handicap SEC Week 9

Georgia at Kentucky

  • Odds: Georgia -14.5, Total 42.5
  • TV-Time: SEC, 12:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Kroger Field
  • Location: Lexington, Kentucky

-- Kentucky quarterback Joey Gatewood is expected to get his first career start. UK senior QB Terry Wilson is ‘out’ due to an injury to his right throwing hand. Gatewood has appeared in three games for the Wildcats, completing 2-of-6 passes for 18 yards. The transfer from Auburn has 43 rushing yards on eight attempts. Wilson has connected on 61.6 percent of his throws for 599 yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson has 251 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. As a freshman at Auburn in 2019, Gatewood ran for 148 yards and three TDs on 29 attempts for a 5.1 YPC average. He completed 5-of-7 passes for 54 yards and two TDs without an interception.

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia (3-1 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a 17-point road favorite with a total of 42.5. The Wildcats were +575 on the money line. The number on UGA has steadily climbed since it was at 14.5 earlier in the week.

-- Kentucky (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) returns home, where it is 1-1 both SU and ATS, after splitting a pair of road assignments. The Wildcats went into Neyland Stadium and ended a 17-game losing streak in Knoxville with a 34-7 win over the Volunteers as 6.5-point underdogs. However, it was a different story in Columbia one week later, as Missouri won a 20-10 decision as a three-point home underdog. It was an atrocious performance from UK’s offense, which had only eight first downs and produced merely 142 total yards of offense. The Tigers had a massive advantage in time of possession, more than doubling up UK (43:10 compared to 16:50).

-- Mark Stoops’s squad went 2-0 ATS with one outright win in a pair of home underdogs situations last season. However, UK has compiled a mediocre 6-12-2 ATS mark in 20 games as a home ‘dog during Stoops’s eight-year tenure.

-- Kirby Smart’s team has had two weeks to prep for UK and recover from a 41-24 loss at Alabama. The Bulldogs are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road this year, as they failed to cover the number in a 37-10 win at Arkansas as 28-point road ‘chalk.’

-- UGA is 11-5 ATS in 16 games as a road favorite during Smart’s five-year tenure.

-- Might we get our first look at QB JT Daniels in a UGA uniform in Lexington? That’s certainly the burning question in Athens. Daniels, a former five-star recruit who started 11 games for USC as a true freshman in 2018, has been cleared to play but hasn’t touched the field yet. Daniels went down with a torn ACL in the Trojans’ opener last year, and then had a second surgical procedure on his knee back in January. In 2018, Daniels completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 2,672 yards with a 14/10 TD-INT ratio.

-- For now, junior QB Stetson Bennett remains the starter. Bennett led UGA to three wins and had five TD passes without an interception going into the game at Alabama. He completed only 18-of-40 attempts for 269 yards and two TDs, but the Crimson Tide intercepted him three times. Bennett has a 57.3 completion percentage, 958 passing yards and a 7/3 TD-INT ratio. WR Kearis Jackson has 21 receptions for 323 yards and one TD, while sophomore WR George Pickens has caught 13 balls for 140 yards and two TDs.

-- Georgia third-year sophomore RB Zamir ‘Zeus’ White has 266 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.2 YPC average.

-- UGA is second in the SEC in total defense and tops in scoring ‘D,’ allowing only 19.5 points per game. This unit is led by senior LB Monty Rice, who was a second-team All-SEC selection last year. Rice has produced 24 tackles, one sack, one tackle for loss, one pass broken up, one QB hurry, one forced fumble and a 20-yard scoop-and-score TD on a fumble recovery.

-- UK will also be without senior nose guard Quinton Bohanna, a 6-foot-4, 350-pound space eater who has 29 career starts to his credit and commands a double team on every play, for a second straight game due to a knee injury. The ‘Cats are hopeful Bohanna will be able to return after the open date for their next game against Vanderbilt.

-- UGA has beaten UK in 10 consecutive head-to-head meetings and has won six times in a row in Lexington. The last three wins for the Bulldogs have come by scores of 21-0, 34-17 and 42-13.

LSU at Auburn

  • Odds: LSU -3, Total 65.5
  • TV-Time: CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium
  • Location: Auburn, Alabama

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had LSU (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a two-point favorite with a total of 64.

-- LSU is off a 52-24 win over South Carolina as a 4.5-point home favorite last Saturday night. With starting QB Myles Brennan ‘out’ with a shoulder injury, true freshman TJ Finley was given his first career start. Finley played like a veteran, completing 17-of-21 passes for 265 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also had 24 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts. RB Tyrion Davis-Price had 135 rushing yards and one TD on 22 carries, while John Emery had 88 rushing yards and one TD on 18 totes. WR Terrace Marshall hauled in six receptions for 88 yards and two TDs. True freshman CB Elias Ricks, a five-star recruit, had a 45-yars pick-six in the second quarter.

-- Brennan, who threw for 1,112 yards with an 11/3 TD-INT ratio in his teams’ first three games, is listed as ‘doubtful’ at Auburn. Ed Orgeron noted at Wednesday’s presser that he was simply hopeful that Brennan, who is recovering from a torn abdomen, can be 100-percent health for next Saturday’s game vs. Alabama. Look for Finley to get his second career start.

-- LSU offensive tackle Dare Rosenthal was suspended indefinitely earlier this week. Also, DE Travez Moore, who had three tackles and one sack in three games, decided to opt out of the rest of the season.

-- Marshall has 27 receptions for 512 yards and nine TDs. Davis-Prince has run for 245 yards and two TDs with a 4.9 YPC average, while Emery has 225 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.8 YPC average.

-- LSU has posted an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a road favorite since Orgeron took over for Les Miles in early October of 2016.

-- Auburn (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) bounced back from a 30-22 loss at South Carolina and ended a 0-3 ATS slide with last week’s 35-28 win at Ole Miss as a 3.5-point road favorite. The win – much like the 30-28 triumph vs. Arkansas on Oct. 10 – came in controversial fashion, though. Trailing 28-27 late in the fourth quarter, an Auburn player appeared to touch a kickoff before the ball got into the end zone. The touch should’ve made it a live ball, one that Ole Miss could recover for a TD, but referees called it a touchback. The replay booth quickly opted not to change the ruling on the field.

-- Whatever the case, Bo Nix played much better in Oxford. The true sophomore signal caller connected on 23-of-30 passes for 238 yards and one TD without an interception. Nix also ran for 52 yards and one TD on 10 attempts. True freshman RB Tank Bigsby had 129 rushing yards and two TDs on 24 carries, while RB Shaun Shivers added 60 rushing yards and one TD on 11 totes. Junior WR Seth Williams had eight catches for 150 yards and one TD.

-- For the season, Nix has completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 1,107 yards with a 6/4 TD-INT ratio. He also has 193 rushing yards and two TDs. Williams has 24 receptions for 440 yards and three TDs, while Anthony Schwartz has caught 34 balls for 299 yards and one TD. Despite missing two games, WR Eli Stove has 16 grabs for 137 yards and two TDs.

-- Bigsby is enjoying a terrific true freshman campaign thus far, rushing for 432 yards and three TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Shivers has 117 rushing yards, one TD and a 5.6 YPC average. Bigsby also has 11 catches for 84 yards.

-- Auburn is 7-3 ATS in 10 games as a home underdog during Gus Malzahn’s eight-year tenure.

-- LSU has won three straight meetings in this series by merely eight combined points. Auburn hasn’t beaten LSU since winning an 18-13 decision as a 3.5-point home underdog in 2016, when LSU scored what appeared to be a game-winning TD on the game’s final play. However, replay officials ruled that the TD didn’t count because the ball wasn’t snapped before time expired. That’s because LSU had wasted about 15 seconds in multiple situations where it could’ve conserved time on the final drive. This was yet another indictment of Les Miles’s incompetent clock-management skills, resulting in his dismissal the next day.

-- When these teams met at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Sept. 15 of 2018, LSU won 22-21 as a 10-point road underdog thanks to Cole Tracy’s 42-yard walk-off field goal. Then in Baton Rouge last season, LSU captured a 23-20 win as an 11.5-point home ‘chalk’ in what would be the team’s closest game of the year. Nix completed just 15-of-35 passes for only 157 yards and one TD with one interception.

-- The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for Auburn, 3-0 in its road contests.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for LSU, 1-1 in its road assignments.

SEC Video Best Bets - Week 9


Ole Miss at Vanderbilt

  • Odds: Mississippi -16.5, 64
  • TV-Time: SEC, 4:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue:Vanderbilt Stadium
  • Location: Nashville, Tennessee

-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Ole Miss (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 63.5. The Commodores were +550 on the money line.

-- I like two plays on the Rebels: -9 in the first half and -6 in the first quarter.

-- This looks like a get-right spot for Ole Miss, which has dropped heartbreakers three weeks in a row vs. Alabama, at Arkansas and vs. Auburn. Vanderbilt, which like Florida has had its last two games postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak, has been beaten in a back-to-back home games by the identical score (41-7) vs. South Carolina and vs. LSU. The Commodores appear to be exactly what the doctor has prescribed for the Rebels, who are much better than their 1-4 record indicates.

-- Ole Miss picked up its lone win on Oct. 3 when it captured a 42-41 overtime win at Kentucky as a 6.5-point road underdog. The Rebels easily covered in a 63-48 loss to Alabama as 24-point home underdogs. The Crimson Tide trailed by seven three separate times, the game featured six different ties and ‘Bama didn’t take its first two-possession lead until there was less than four minutes remaining.

-- Ole Miss had the ball down only five late in the fourth quarter at Arkansas two weeks, but QB Matt Corral committed seven turnovers and his second pick-six in a 33-21 setback. In last week’s 35-28 home loss to Auburn, Corral had only 154 passing yards and one TD with a pair of interceptions. However, the third-year sophomore did run for 88 yards and two TDs on 10 attempts. Snoop Conner added 75 rushing yards on 13 carries, while Jerrion Ealy produced 74 rushing yards and one TD on 17 totes.

-- For the season, Corral has completed 67.3 percent of his attempts for 1,434 yards with a 12/9 TD-INT ratio. He has run for 258 yards and two TDs, averaging 4.2 YPC. Ealy has 429 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.0 YPC average, while Conner has run for 294 yards and four TDs with a 4.5 YPC average.

-- Ole Miss junior WR Elijah Moore has 47 receptions for 591 yards and three TDs, while senior TE Kenny Yeboah has 19 catches for 438 yards and four TDs.

-- Ole Miss is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite. This is the Rebels’ first double-digit road favorite role since losing outright at Memphis by a 37-24 count as 10.5-point favorites in 2015.

-Vanderbilt (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) is an abysmal 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.

-- Since playing Texas A&M surprisingly tough in a 17-12 loss as a 31-point road underdog in its season opener, Vandy has been outscored 82-14 at home by South Carolina and LSU.

-- Vandy’s offense is averaging merely 8.7 PPG. True freshman QB Ken Seals has completed 61.5 percent of his passes for 411 yards with a 3/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- Ja’Veon Marlow has run for a team-high 148 yards while averaging 4.5 YPC, but he’s listed as ‘questionable’ vs. Ole Miss due to an undisclosed injury.

-- The ‘under’ is 2-1 overall for the ‘Dores, 1-1 in their home contests.

-- After the ‘over’ hit in its first three games, Ole Miss has seen the ‘under’ appear in back-to-back contests.

Mississippi State at Alabama

  • Odds: Alabama -31, Total 64
  • TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue:Bryant-Denny Stadium
  • Location: Tuscaloosa, Alabama

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) installed as a 31-point home favorite with a total of 63.5.

-- I like two plays on this game. First, I’m a big fan of Alabama team total to go ‘over’ 26.5 points in the first half. Also, I like the Crimson Tide -18 for first-half wagers.

-- Nick Saban’s team suffered a crushing blow on the opening kickoff last week at Tennessee. Jaylen Waddle, one of the nation’s most explosive and entertaining players, sustained a season-ending ankle injury. The junior WR had 25 receptions for 557 yards and four TDs through four games. Fortunately for Alabama, it is loaded with depth at the WR position.

-- Alabama covered in every imaginable way during last week’s 48-17 win at Tennessee as a 21.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The Crimson Tide led 14-0 going into the second quarter, cashing tickets for its backers on first-quarter wagers at -6.5. Saban’s bunch led 28-10 at intermission to cover easily as a 13.5-point favorite for first-half bets. Also, the 28 points went ‘over’ the first-half team total of 24.5.

-- Alabama QB Mac Jones enjoyed another outstanding performance, connecting on 25-of-31 passes for 387 yards without an interception. RB Najee Harris had 96 rushing yards and three TDs on 20 carries, in addition to catching six balls for 61 receiving yards. WR John Metchie had seven receptions for 151 yards.

-- For the season, Jones has completed 78.8 percent of his passes for 1,905 yards with a 12/2 TD-INT ratio. Most spots have Jones with the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman Trophy in the +175 neighborhood. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, who won’t play Saturday vs. Boston College after testing positive for COVID-19, is a -110 favorite at most shops.

-- Harris leads the nation in touchdowns with 14. The senior RB has 595 rushing yards, a 5.8 YPC average and 14 catches for 147 yards. WR DeVonta Smith has 45 receptions for 556 yards and four TDs, while Metchie has 21 grabs for 499 yards and three TDs.

-- Saban owns a 12-1 record vs. Mississippi St. since arriving in Tuscaloosa. His team took the cash in last year’s 38-7 win in Starkville as an 18-point road favorite.

-- Alabama is third in the nation in total offense, passing yards and scoring with its 48.4 PPG average.

-- The Crimson Tide is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of home games this year. They’re 38-32-2 ATS as home ‘chalk’ since 2010.

-- Mississippi St. (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) has dropped three consecutive games since beating LSU 44-34 as a 14.5-point road underdog in the season opener. KJ Costello, the senior QB who grad transferred from Stanford, set an SEC record in Baton Rouge by throwing for 623 yards and five TDs. However, the 2018 second-team All-Pac-12 selection has thrown just one TD and been intercepted eight times in the last three games.

-- For the season, Costello has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,267 yards with a 6/10 TD-INT ratio.

-- Mike Leach confirmed at his Wednesday presser that seven players have left the team in the past week. They’ve either entered the transfer portal or intend to soon. That doesn’t even include senior RB Kylin Hill, who has reportedly elected to opt out of the rest of the season to prepare for the 2021 NFL Draft. Hill was a fourth-team All-American and first-team All-SEC selection in 2019 when he produced 1,350 rushing yards and 10 TDs. Leach also implied that more players might be on their way out the door soon.

-- Mississippi St.’s decline started with a 21-14 home loss to Arkansas. Then the Bulldogs lost 24-2 at Kentucky before dropping a 28-14 decision at home to Texas A&M two weeks ago. They’ve had an open date to prep for the Crimson Tide.

-- MSU is 1-7 ATS in eight games as a road underdog since 2017.

-- The ‘over’ hit in Alabama’s first four games, but the 65 combined points last week dipped ‘under’ the 67-point total. The ‘over’ has cashed in both of the Tide’s home games that’ve produced 76 and 65 combined points.

-- The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for MSU, cashing in three straight outings since the ‘over’ was an easy casher at LSU.

Missouri at Florida

  • Odds: Florida -13, Total 61.5
  • TV-Time: SEC, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
  • Location: Gainesville, Florida

-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Florida (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) listed as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 61.5. The Tigers were +315 on the money line.

-- UF had a COVID-19 outbreak after its trip to College Station, where it lost 41-38 on a walk-off field goal on Oct. 10. The Gators had to close the team’s facility for 12 days and didn’t return to practice until Monday. They reportedly had 26 players test positive and then added six more this past Saturday. That brought the team total since reporting to campus over the summer to 68. With the LSU game moved to Dec. 12 and this game vs. Missouri pushed back a week, the hope is that UF won’t have to deal with the virus much moving forward. With that said, it’s unknown which six players tested positive this past Saturday and won’t be in uniform against the Tigers. UF will release a statement to the media at some point Saturday that’ll list the players who are unavailable. The guess here is that if one of the six players was Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts or Kadarius Toney, the media would’ve obtained that scoop by now.

-- Florida fans are hopeful that senior DT Kyree Campbell will make his season debut vs. Missouri. Campbell has missed the first three games due to undisclosed reasons. He had 39 tackles, three TFL’s and one sack in 2019. Campbell could provide a big boost to a defensive line that got bullied by the Aggies in College Station.

-- UF’s offense can’t be blamed for the loss at Texas A&M. The Gators punted only once and committed just one turnover, but Malik Davis’s fumble inside Aggies’ territory set up their game-winning drive. Trask was spectacular in his return to his home state, completing 23-of-32 passes for 312 yards and four TDs without an interception. Toney had seven receptions for 92 yards and two TDs. However, the defense was gashed for 543 yards and forced only one punt.

-- For the season, Trask has completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 996 yards with a stellar 14/1 TD-INT ratio. Junior TE Kyle Pitts has been his favorite target, hauling in 17 receptions for 274 yards and seven TDs. Toney has 18 catches for 237 yards and four TDs, in addition to rushing for 60 yards on five attempts.

-- Florida is ranked No. 96 nationally in total defense, allowing opponents an average of 495.0 yards per game. The Gators are giving up an average of 33.3 PPG.

-- UF is 7-5 ATS in 12 games as a home favorite since Dan Mullen took over in 2018.

-- Missouri (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) has only played one road game, losing 35-12 at Tennessee on Oct. 3 as an 11-point underdog. The non-cover dropped the Tigers’ ATS record as home underdogs to 16-14 since 2010.

-- Eli Drinkwitz’s team lost 38-19 at home to Alabama in its season opener, posting a backdoor cover after trailing 35-3 as a 28.5-point home underdog. Since falling to 0-2 with the loss at UT the following week, Missouri has won back-to-back games vs. LSU (45-41) and vs. Kentucky (20-10). Drinkwitz’s bunch needed an epic goal-line stand in the final minute to conserve the victory vs. LSU, which failed to get in the end zone on four plays from inside of Mizzou’s 2.

-- Missouri redshirt freshman QB Connor Bazelak has won the starting job over TCU transfer Shawn Robinson, who started the first two games. Bazelak was without three of his top-five WRs vs. LSU, but he still torched the defending national champion by hitting on 29-of-34 passes for 406 yards and four TDs without an interception. For the season, Bazelak has completed 70-of-99 passes (70.7%) for 893 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio.

-- Missouri senior RB Larry Rountree, a third-team All-SEC choice in 2019, had 119 rushing yards on 18 totes vs. LSU. Rountree has a team-high 396 rushing yards and three TDs with a 4.6 YPC average.

-- Totals have been a wash for the Tigers overall (2-2), but the ‘under’ cashed in their lone road assignment.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-0 for the Gators with their combined scores hitting 79, 62 and 86 points.

-- Missouri has beaten Florida in four out of seven meetings since joining the SEC, including a 2-1 mark in Gainesville. In 2018, Drew Lock led the Tigers to a 38-17 win over UF as 6.5-point road underdogs.

Arkansas at Texas A&M

  • Odds: Texas A&M -14, Total 53.5
  • TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue:Kyle Field
  • Location: College Station, Texas

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Texas A&M (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 53. The Razorbacks were +425 on the money line. Most spots opened the Aggies as 10-point ‘chalk’ and were at -12.5 as of Thursday night, but the line has steadily moved North since Friday morning.

-- Arkansas (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS) and Tulsa are the only teams in the country who have played more than one game and are still perfect for our purposes (ATS). Both teams have enjoyed an open date and had two weeks to prepare for each other.

-- Sam Pittman’s team is off a 33-21 win over Ole Miss as a one-point home underdog. QB Feleipe Franks completed 21-of-34 passes for 244 yards and one TD with one interception. WR Treylon Brooks had 11 catches for 137 yards and one TD. Hudson Clark intercepted Ole Miss QB Matt Corral three times, while Grant Morgan and Jalen Catalon both had a pick-six. Morgan’s 23-yard interception return for a TD iced the game with 3:07 remaining.

-- Texas A&M has won all eight meetings against Arkansas since joining the SEC, but five of the last six have been one-possession games and the Aggies have needed overtime three times. The Hogs easily covered the spread in a 31-27 loss at Jerry World in Arlington last year as 23.5-point underdogs.

-- Jimbo Fisher’s team owns wins vs. Vandy (17-12), vs. Florida (41-38) and at Mississippi St. (28-14). The Aggies took their lone defeat at Alabama by a 52-24 count.

-- As a home favorite on Fisher’s watch, Texas A&M is 9-4 ATS.

-- Texas A&M senior QB Kellen Mond has connected on 61.5 percent of his passes for 984 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio. RB Ainias Smith has 17 catches for 223 yards and three TDs, while WR Chase Lane has 16 receptions for 222 yards and two TDs. In the Aggies’ first three games, Christian Chapman had 14 grabs for 197 yards and three TDs, but he tore his ACL on his game-tying TD catch vs. Florida late in the fourth quarter.

-- Texas A&M sophomore RB Isaiah Spiller has 430 rushing yards, four TDs and a 6.7 YPC average. Look for Fisher to try and pound the rock with Spiller early and often against the Razorbacks.

Odds to win 2020 SEC Championship

  • Alabama 3/10
  • Georgia 3/1
  • Florida 4/1
  • Texas A&M 18/1
  • Kentucky 100/1
  • Missouri 150/1
  • Arkansas 250/1
  • Auburn 250/1
  • LSU 250/1
  • South Carolina 250/1
  • Tennessee 250/1
  • Mississippi State 750/1

Subject to Change - per FanDuel Sportsbook


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