Tech Trends – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

15 minute read

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Week 11 of the College Football season kicks off on Tuesday, Nov. 10 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 15.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Tuesday, Nov. 10

AKRON at OHIO (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

Akron now on 1-12 spread skid since 2019 for Arth after opening loss vs. WMU.
Solich however just 5-9 vs. line since 2019 after opener and has failed to cover last seven at Athens since late 2018.
Solich won this game 52-3 in 2019 at Zips.

Tech Edge: Ohio, based on Akron negatives.

KENT STATE at BOWLING GREEN (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)

Kent State closed fast in 2019 with covers in last 5 and 7 of 8, though narrow spread loser vs. EMU in 2020 opener.
Golden Flashes have won and covered last two in this series after 62-20 romp over Falcs LY.
BG now just 3-10 vs. spread for Loeffler since LY and 14-35 overall vs. points since 2016.

Tech Edge: Kent State, based on team and recent series trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at BUFFALO (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Buffalo improved to 27-12-3 vs. spread the past 3+ seasons after opening win at NIU.
With that spread “W” vs. Huskies (if using +1), Miami on 6-1 uptick as dog.
Home team has won and covered last 3 in series.

Tech Edge: Slight to Buffalo, based on team and series home trends.

Wednesday, Nov. 11

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPNU, 8:00 p.m.)

McElwain now 11-4 vs. line for CMU after opening win. Chips 4-1 vs. number as MAC visitor in 2019.
CMU has covered last six in series, won 48-10 LY.
Interestingly, Huskies yet to lose two straight vs. spread under Hammock.

Tech Edge: CMU, based on team and series trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at BALL STATE (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

After another road cover in opener (if using 4½), EMU now 22-6-1 last 29 vs. line away from Ypsilanti.
Eagles had whipped Ball three in a row before losing close decision in 2019.

Tech Edge: EMU, based on team trends.

TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

After slow 0-6-1 close vs. line in 2019, Toledo rocketed out to big win and cover in 2020 opener vs. BGSU.
Toledo has also won and covered last three in series.

Tech Edge: Slight to Toledo, based on series trends.

Thursday, Nov. 12

COLORADO STATE at BOISE STATE (FS1, 8:00 p.m.)

Addazio finally got his win for CSU on Thursday.
CSU has covered 3 of last 4 meetings, Rams also 7-4 last 11 as MW road dog (0-1 TY).
Even after BYU loss, Boise now 8-4 vs. line last 12 at home after previous struggles laying points on blue turf.

Tech Edge: Slight to CSU, based on team trends.

Friday, Nov. 12

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

Shula Bowl! FAU 2-2 vs. line for Taggart TY, but 12-6 last 18 overall vs. line.
FIU on 5-11 spread skid since LY (1-2 in 2020).
Kiffin absolutely brutalized FIU past three years, routs in each, in fact only one of last ten Shula bowls decided by single digits.
Blowout series.

Tech Edge: FAU, based on team and series trends.

IOWA at MINNESOTA (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)

Floyd of Rosedale! Iowa has won SU in last five Floyd battles, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four.
Ferentz failed to cover opener at Purdue but was 15-7-1 vs. spread previous 23 as Big Ten visitor.
Fleck has started 0-2 SU and vs. line in 2020, but was 6-2 last 8 vs. Big Ten at home prior to loss to Michigan.

Tech Edge: Iowa, based on team and series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at CINCINNATI (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)

Home team has covered last four meetings.
This was a real escape for Cincy LY at Greenville, 46-43.
Bearcats however only 4-4 vs. spread last eight at Nippert, and Pirates have surprisingly covered last five as American visitor.

Tech Edge: Slight to ECU, based on team trends.

Saturday, Nov. 14

ARKANSAS at FLORIDA (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

Razorbacks 6-0 vs. line for Pittman in 2020, though Dan Mullen is 8-1 vs. spread last nine at Swamp with Gators.
Teams haven’t met since 2016.

Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas, based on recent trends.

VANDERBILT at KENTUCKY (SEC, 12:00 p.m.)

Derek Mason on 5-13 spread skid, though visitor has covered last three meetings.
UK only 3-3 vs. line TY but on 14-7 spread uptick since late 2018.

Tech Edge: Slight to Kentucky, based on team trends.

TCU at WEST VIRGINIA (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)

After dropping last four vs. line LY at Morgantown, WVU is 3-0-1 vs. spread as host in 2020.
Mounties have also won and covered last four vs. TCU.
Frogs have covered last three away since late 2019, but Patterson only 5-6 last 11 in once-solid dog role.

Tech Edge: WVU, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE (ACC, 7:30 p.m.)

FSU 2-5 vs. line TY, only 8-17 last 25 vs. spread since late 2018.
Wolfpack 5-2 vs. line TY and has covered all three at home, also on 9-2 “over” run since mid 2019.
NC State had covered three straight in series prior to LY’s 31-13 Noles win.

Tech Edge: NC State, based on recent and series trends.

NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

BC 4-1 as dog TY for Hafley, 18-6-1 since 2017 in role including Addazio.
Though Eagles were ripped last two meetings vs. ND in 2017 & ‘19.
They are historically tough on Irish, had covered previous 3 and 5 of 6 meetings.
Domers only 3-3 last six as visiting chalk (1-1 TY).

Tech Edge: BC, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST at NORTH CAROLINA (ACC, 12:00 p.m.)

Deacs good value this season, have covered last 4 and 5 of last 6 in 2020, and 2-0 as dog.

Tech Edge: Wake Forest, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Texas State skidding, DD losses last five in 2020 (though only 2-3 vs. line in those)
Also “under” 12-6 dating to early 2019 for State.
GSU “under” 8-1 last 9 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at GEORGIA TECH (ACC, 7:00 p.m.)

Panthers have won and covered last 2 vs. GT.
Jackets 6-12-1 vs. line for Collins since LY.

Tech Edge: Pitt, based on recent trends.

MIAMI-FLORIDA at VIRGINIA TECH (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)

Hokies tough lately at home, have won and covered six of last seven at Blacksburg even counting Liberty loss.
Canes have dropped last 4 vs. spread in 2020, 0-1 as dog TY after 2-0 in role LY.

Tech Edge: VPI, based on recent trends.

TEMPLE at UCF (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m.)

Owls are 3-6 vs. spread away from home for Carey since 2019, also lost and failed to cover last three vs. UCF.
Knights on 5-11 spread skid since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to UCF, based on recent series trends.

OHIO STATE at MARYLAND (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m.)

Locksley has covered last two in 2020 sbut still just 5-8 last 13 vs. spread since early LY with Terps.
OSU has won all six SU from Md since Terps entered Big Ten and Buckeyes have scored 49 or more in all of those games, with each having gone “over” as well.
Ryan Day 5-1 vs. points as Big Ten visitor since LY.

Tech Edge: OSU and “over,” based on team and series trends.

WISCONSIN at MICHIGAN (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

Harbaugh 7-2 last nine as Ann Arbor Big Ten chalk even after loss to MSU.
Home team has won last four meetings, covering three.
If Badgers a dog note 9-5 spread mark for Chryst in role with Wiscy.

Tech Edge: Slight to Michigan, based on series home trends.

INDIANA at MICHIGAN STATE (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)

Spartans no covers last seven as Big Ten host.
Hoosiers on 10-3 spread run since early 2019.

Tech Edge: Indiana, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at PURDUE (Big Ten, 7:30 p.m.)

Pat Fitzgerald 17-3 vs. line last 20 as Big Ten visitor.
Cats had won five straight from Purdue before close 24-22 home loss LY.
Brohm on 8-2 spread uptick since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Northwestern, based on extended trends.

ILLINOIS at RUTGERS (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m.)

Lovie is 3-1 SU and vs. points against Rutgers past four years but all pre-Schiano.
Tempted to dismiss Scarlet Knights marks pre-Schiano.
Lovie on 11-6 “under” run, 3 of last 4 in this series “under” as well.

Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at MARSHALL (CBSSN, 12:00 p.m.)

Herd 6-0 SU, 4-2 vs. line in 2020, tough Stockstill has covered 4 of last 5 this season, including last four as dog.
Blue Raiders have also won and covered last two meetings.

Tech Edge: MTSU, based on recent trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at HOUSTON (ESPN+, 3:00 p.m.)

USF one of the more unimpressive 4-3 spread teams in country.
Bulls 1-6 SU for Scott, 5-14 SU since LY, though they are 6-3 vs. spread away since last season.
Holgorsen, however, just 9-10 vs. spread since taking over the Cougs in 2019.
UH only 2-6 vs. spread at TDECU Stadium (not counting NRG game vs. WSU LY) for Holgorsen.

Tech Edge: USF, based on team trends.

CAL at ARIZONA STATE (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m)

Cal 5-2 as dog for Wilcox LY, now 16-7 as dog since 2017.
Herm just 3-7 vs. line last ten at Tempe, though he did win at Berkeley LY.

Tech Edge: Cal, based on team trends.

USC at ARIZONA (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)

Sumlin 3-9 vs. line LY, 0-4 vs. spread as Pac-12 host.
USC has won seven straight in series, covering last 4.

Tech Edge: SC, based on team and series trends.

NEVADA at NEW MEXICO (FS2, 6:30 p.m.)

Nevada off to 3-0 SU and spread start after Utags win.
Pack has now covered last 3 as visitor.
Even after cover at Hawaii, Lobos only 5-16 last 21 vs. spread (4-15 of that under Davie pre-2020).

Tech Edge: Nevada, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at UTAH STATE (FS2, 2:30 p.m.)

Utah State off to slow 0-3 SU and spread break from gate in 2020, outscored 114-29 in process.
Aggies now on 4-9 spread skid.
Fresno State has won and covered alst two after droppign 9 of prior 11 vs. points.

Tech Edge: FSU, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA STATE at APPALACHIAN STATE (ESPN+, 2:30 p.m.)

App has won last six SU in series, 4-1-1 vs. spread in those wins.
Mounties however off to 1-5 spread start in 2020, and just 2-4 last six, and 4-5 vs. spread last nine at Boone.

Tech Edge: Slight to App State, based on series trends.

OREGON at WASHINGTON STATE (FOX, 7:00 p.m.)

The Leach Cougs did well in this series lately, covered last 8 meetings!
WSU has actually covered last ten in series back to Paul Wulff days in 2010.
Ducks 5-1 vs. line last six against Pac-12 away from Eugene.

Tech Edge: WSU, based on series trends.

OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON (FS1, 11:00 p.m.)

Road team has covered last five meetings.
Huskies 2-7 vs. spread last nine vs. Pac-12 in Seattle.
Beavers covered 9 of last 11 in 2019 bt lost 2020 opener vs. WSU.

Tech Edge: OSU, based on team and series trends.

UNLV at SAN JOSE STATE (FS2, 10:30 p.m.)

Home team has won and covered last four meetings.
Rebels 2-8 vs. line last 10 on MW trail.
Spartans 12-4-1 vs. line since late 2018.

Tech Edge: SJSU, based on team and series trends.

HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE (Spectrum, 4:00 p.m.)

Aztecs only 5-13 vs. line last 18 as home chalk.
S. D. State playing home games this year in Carson, Ca; 1-1 in those SU and vs. line.
UH has won and covered last two meetings after SDSU won and covered six previous.

Tech Edge: Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.

COLORADO at STANFORD (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

Shaw just 3-5 last 8 as Farm chalk, Tree on 3-11 spread skid into 2020.
Buffs however on 2-10-1 spread skid last 14 as Pac-12 visitor entering 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Stanford, based on CU negatives.

UTEP at UTSA (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

Miners surprising 4-2 vs. line TY (big upgrade from the 10-25-1 the previous three years), also covered last three on road TY.
Roadrunners 1-3 vs. line at Alamodome TY, just 3-6 vs. spread last nine as host.
Road team has covered last seven in series!

Tech Edge: UTEP, based on recent and series trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS TECH (FS1, 4:00 p.m.)

If Red Raiders a dog, note 4-2 vs. spread last six in role vs. Big 12 at Lubbock.

Tech Edge: Slight to Texas Tech, if dog, based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at TROY (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)

Hot Chants 7-0 SU and 5-2 vs. line in 2020, also now 8-1 vs. line away from home since LY.
Erratic Troy is 3-4 vs. line TY, and only 7-12 vs. points for Chip Lindsey since LY, and 2-5 last seven as dog (1-1 TY).

Tech Edge: Coastal Carolina, based on recent trends.

ARMY at TULANE (ESPN+, 12:00 p.m.)

Willie Fritz has won and covered vs. Army in 2017 & ‘19.
Green Wave has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6 this season.
Fritz on 14-6 spread run, also 8-1 last nine vs. spread at home since LY (2-1 in 2020).
Army 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Michie.

Tech Edge: Tulane, based on recent trends.

PENN STATE at NEBRASKA (FS1, 12:00 p.m.)

James Franklin was 5-1 vs. line away from home LY but lost first away in 2020 at Indiana.
And now 0-3 SU and vs. spread in 2020.
Huskers 1-4 vs. spread vs. Big Ten at home LY, Frost also just 1-5 last six as dog.

Tech Edge: Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.

SMU at TULSA (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)

Dog team has covered last four in this series.
Even after Temple win, SMU only 3-5 vs. line last eight away from Dallas.
Tulsa on 7-3 spread uptick since mid 2019, though just 2-5 vs. points last seven as host (0-1 TY).

Tech Edge: Slight to Tulsa, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at UAB (Stadium, 3:00 p.m.)

UNT on 5-18 spread skid since mid 2018 for Littrell.
Blazers have won and covered last two years vs. Mean Green.
UAB not as good as usual vs. line TY (only 2-5) but still 10-3-1 vs. number at Legion Field vs. C-USA foes since program returned in 2017.

Tech Edge: UAB, based on extended trends.

UL MONROE at ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN3, 3:00 p.m.)

Warhawks have actually covered 3 of last 5 in 2020, but still only 3-5 vs. line this season.
Matt Viator now on 11-23 spread slide since late 2017.
Ark State has won and covered last six meetings.

Tech Edge: Arkansas State, based on series and anti-ULM trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at OLE MISS (SEC, 7:30 p.m.)

Muschamp 3-2 as dog TY (0-2 last 2), if one throws out last season (when 2-4 as dog), SC is 13-5 as dog since 2017.
Ole Miss 3-3 as chalk since last season.
Tthough 1-3 in role in non-Vanderbilt games.
Lane Kiffin 1-2 vs. line at Vaught-Hemingway this season.
Last meeting was in 2018 when Gamecocks won 48-44 at Oxford.

Tech Edge: SC, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-LAFAYETTE (ESPN+, 2:00 p.m.)

Cajuns have cooled a bit vs. line, dropping 5 of last 6, after Napier 17-7-2 previous 26 vs. spread.
Jags have covered last 2 years in series, and USA on 11-4 spread uptick since early 2019.
USA also “under” 14-5 since 2019.
ULL on 11-4 “under” run.