ACC Report – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

21 minute read

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The Atlantic Coast Conference will have 12 of 15 schools in action for Week 11 for a total of six conference games, with three teams enjoying a bye week.

All six games take place on Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020.

Conference

• Miami-Florida at Virginia Tech
• Wake Forest at North Carolina
• Notre Dame at Boston College
• Louisville at Virginia
• Pittsburgh at at Georgia Tech
• Florida State at N.C. State

Not In Action

• Clemson, Duke, Syracuse

Miami at Virginia Tech (ESPN2, 12 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Virginia Tech -2.5, O/U 66.5

• Last Week: Miami at N.C. State W 44-41 (-10.5, 58)
• Last Week: Virginia Tech vs. Liberty L 35-38 (-17, 67.5)

The Hurricanes hit the road for Lane Stadium in Blacksburg looking to add to the woes of the Hokies. Miami posted a 44-41 victory in Raleigh last weekend, topping N.C. State in a high-scoring affair at Carter-Finley Stadium. They erased a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter, notching a QB D'Eriq King 54-yard touchdown pass with 2:43 to go to steal a win. Miami continues to use a balanced off to win games, however. They rank 33rd in total yards (442.7), 33rd in passing yards (270.4) and 55th in rushing yards (172.3), while posting 34.4 PPG to rank 37th in the land. Defensively the Canes have been brutal on the road, allowing 41, 42 and 34 in their three trips away from Miami Gardens, and they have failed to cover in two straight on the road and three of the past four overall.

For the Hokies, they're trying to pick themselves up and dust themselves off after a stunning loss at home to Liberty last week, 38-35. It isn't as simple as just a home upset loss, however. The game was tied 35-35, and Liberty was attempting to kick a game-winning field goal. Instead, Virginia Tech blocked the kick and returned it for a touchdown, as the Hokies thought they notched the miracle win. Head coach Justin Fuente called for a timeout just before the kick, however, and the Hokies had the touchdown wiped out. Instead, Liberty's kicker bagged a 51-yard field goal to give them the amazing win. How can Virginia Tech recover from that? The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, so that bodes well for the home side, while the 'under' is 11-5-1 ATS in the previous 17 meetings in this series which dates back to both their time in the Big East Conference.

Wake Forest at North Carolina (ACC, 12 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: North Carolina -13.5, O/U 66.5

• Last Game (Oct. 31): Wake Forest at Syracuse W 38-14 (-14, 60)
• Last Week: North Carolina at Duke W 56-24 (-10.5, 63.5)

The Demon Deacons head to Kenan on a four-game winning streak, and they're also 4-0 ATS during the impressive run. The Deacs are averaging 41.8 PPG during the four-game win/cover streak with wins over FCS Campbell, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. However, they head east on Interstate 40/85 as two-touchdown underdogs? The Demon Deacons are just 1-5-1 ATS in the previous seven road contests, although they're a very impressive 11-4 ATS in the past 15 as a road underdog. The Deacs have failed to cover its past four trips to Chapel Hill, too, while the home team is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings at home. The over is also 4-0 in the past four battles between these two at Kenan.

North Carolina heads into this one as moderate favorites, and they have had a great time at home. They're 4-0 ATS in the past four at Kenan, and 5-0 ATS in their past five as a home favorite. The Tar Heels offense has been ridiculous lately, going for 56 last week at Duke, while averaging 48.3 PPG in the previous three. At home, UNC has posted a 3-0 SU/ATS mark with decisive victories over Syracuse, Virginia Tech and rival North Carolina State in its most recent home showing Oct. 24. So far it's been a great time for the Tar Heels to party, socially distanced of course, on Franklin Street after home victories. And have a chicken and cheese biscuit at the Time-Out on the way in for an extra bonus! If you don't know, Google it.

Notre Dame at Boston College (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Betting Odds: Notre Dame -14, O/U 49.5

• Last Week: Notre Dame vs. Clemson W 47-40 2OT (+5, 51)
• Last Week: Boston College at Syracuse W 16-13 (-14.5, 54)

The Fighting Irish pulled off a mild upset of Clemson last weekend in South Bend, sending the fans into an ill-advised storming of the field. Notre Dame won 47-40 in double-overtime over the Trevor Lawrence-less Tigers. Now, what can the Irish do for an encore? Perennial thorn in their side, Boston College, stands in the way and it's a road game for QB Ian Book and the boys. Notre Dame leads the 'Holy War' by a 15-9 count all-time, with one win in 2012 vacated. The Irish have officially won six in a row in this series, outscoring B.C. 89-27 in the past two. However, the average margin of victory in the four previous Irish official wins was just 6.7 PPG. Before that, Boston College had a six-game winning streak in the series from 2001-08.

Boston College might have been caught looking ahead a little last week. They stumbled through an ugly, sloppy 16-13 win at Syracuse. Even with a shaky effort, it's good enough to top the Orange, but it won't be nearly enough to keep the Irish within arm's length. Just looking at common opponents, however, Boston College gave Clemson a run, falling 34-28 in Death Valley two weeks ago, while the Irish topped the Tigers in double-overtime. The difference in performances against Clemson, with both teams facing them without Lawrence, isn't that great. Last week B.C. outgained Syracuse 399 to 240 in total yards with 20 first downs to 14 for the Orange, but they bogged down time and again deep in 'Cuse territory, settling for field goals. A late touchdown from the Orange cut a 16-6 lead to 16-13, the final margin, with 21 seconds left, so B.C. was never really in danger of losing. But still, it was a shabby performance against a poor team. If B.C. plays like that again this week, they'll get boat-raced.

Louisville at Virginia (ACC, 3:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Virginia -3, O/U 66.5

• Last Game (Oct. 31): Louisville vs. Virginia Tech L 35-42 (+5.5, 67.5)
• Last Game (Oct. 31): Virginia vs. North Carolina L 41-44 (+7.5, 60)

The Cardinals had a coronavirus outbreak last Wednesday, pausing all football-related activities. The game between Louisville-Virginia scheduled for last Saturday was simply pushed to this weekend thanks to a shared open week. If only it worked out this well.

Louisville hits the road for Charlottesville looking for its first road win of the season. They narrowly missed an upset at Notre Dame in its most recent trip Oct. 17, falling 12-7. They're 1-1-1 ATS in three road outings, averaging just 18.0 PPG while allowing 27.0 PPG. The Cardinals started the season rather slowly on offense, but lately they have found their sea legs, hoisting up 83 total points across the past two outings, both 'over' results. Louisville has posted 435.3 total yards overall to rank 31st, and they're 33rd in the nation with 185.1 yards on the ground, lead by Javian Hawkins, who has 822 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, the Cards have been trucked for 201.0 rushing yards per game, just 79th in the country.

Virginia surprised North Carolina two weeks ago, 44-41, winning outright as a 7.5-point underdog. The Hoos are 2-1 SU/ATS in three games at home with the 'over' hitting in all three games at Scott Stadium. In fact, the 'over' is 5-1 in their six games overall. Virginia has registered 27.2 PPG to rank 63rd in the country, and the offense has been very balanced. UVA is 45th in total yards (412.7), 47th in passing yards (241.0) and 46th in rushing yards (171.7). Defensively, it appeared they were getting a bit better, holding Miami to just 19 points in a narrow loss on the road, but UNC was able to roll up 41 points despite Virginia winning the game outright. They'll likely have their hands full against Louisville's improving offense, too. These teams met in Louisville last season, with the Cardinals coming away with a 28-21 win on Oct. 26, 2019.

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (ESPN3, 7 p.m.)

Betting Odds: Pittsburgh -6.5, O/U 50.5

• Last Week: Pittsburgh at Florida State W 41-17 (-1.5, 52.5)
• Last Game (Oct. 31): Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame L 13-31 (+20.5, 58.5)

The Panthers turned things around in a big way last time out, emphatically snapping a four-game losing skid with a 41-17 win at Florida State. It was also Pitt's first cover since Week 1 against FCS Austin Peay, and its first cover against an FBS team after going 0-5-1 ATS in the previous six.  The Panthers have been consistent in the total department, too, cashing the 'over' in five consecutive games, including the past three on the road. Pittsburgh just been so-so this season, especially on the ground, going for only 105.1 yards per game to rank 111th. Defensively, they have been stout, yielding just 296.5 total yards per game to rank ninth in the nation, while allowing only 78.8 rushing yards to check in third in the country. The Panthers are just 1-7-1 ATS in the past nine inside the ACC, and 1-3-1 ATS in the previous five as a favorite.

Georgia Tech will enter the game rested. They posted a cover in their most recent game against Notre Dame on Halloween, falling 31-13 as 20.5-point underdogs. The Yellow Jackets haven't tasted victory since a Friday night game against Louisville back on Oct. 9, going 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS during a three-game losing streak. That includes a 73-7 emasculation at the hands of Clemson on Oct. 17. Like Pitt, the 'over' has been a frequent occurrence for the Ramblin' Wreck, hitting in five of the past six overall, including three of their four games at home so far. Georgia Tech has posted a 3-8 ATS mark in the past 11 as a home underdog, while going 6-16 ATS in the previous 22 overall. The good news, though, is that the underdog has hit in five of the past seven meetings, with the road team also 5-2 ATS across the past seven in this series.

Florida State at N.C. State (ACC, 7:30 p.m.)

Betting Odds: N.C. State -7, 60.5

• Last Week: Florida State vs. Pittsburgh L 17-41 (+1.5, 52.5)
• Last Week: N.C. State vs. Miami-Florida L 41-44 (+10.5, 58)

FSU was routed at home by Pitt last week, so they continue to be a hard team to figure. They played Notre Dame hard in South Bend, covering in a 42-26 loss on Oct. 10, and stunned then-Top 5 North Carolina by a 31-28 count at the Doak on Oct. 17. However, just when they looked to have it back on the rails, FSU was curb-stomped at Louisville by a 48-16 count on Oct. 24 as five-point 'dogs, and then they were waffled 41-17 on their home turf against a Pittsburgh team not exactly known for a prolific offense. So the Jekyll and Hyde award in the ACC goes to FSU, and it isn't even close. The 'Noles haven't had any success on the road, going 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS, and they're just 2-5 ATS overall this season. The 'over' is 5-1 in six games for the Seminoles, which is about the only thing consistent about betting their games in 2020.

N.C. State has been consistent. And that's not a good thing. They are consistently allowing A LOT of points, yielding 44, 48, 20, 21, 29, 45 and 42 in their seven games this season. The good news is that the offense has been pretty solid, averaging 32.9 PPG thanks to a decent pass offense throwing up 262.0 yards per game to rank 37th in the nation. RB Zonovan Knight has been respectable, too, rushing for 451 yards and four touchdowns so far. The Wolfpack have covered in five of seven games overall this season, and they're 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in three games at Carter-Finley Stadium. And the 'over' is 6-1 in seven matchups, as we mentioned, the defense is shaky and the offense has been rather prolific.

In this series, the Seminoles have really struggled against the number. FSU is 0-8-1 ATS in the past nine trips to Raleigh, and 3-15-1 ATS in the previous 19 meetings in this series. The home team has connected in five of the past six meetings, and the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five in this series.

ACC Betting Results - 2020

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