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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM

Pac-12 Week 15 Best Bets, Odds, Predictions

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I can't remember for certain, but as the Pac-12 reaches its final scheduled regular season week of the year, I don't believe they've ever had a week where every team in the conference got on the field.

Week 15 Pac-12 Schedule

Friday, Dec. 11

  • Arizona State at Arizona (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Saturday, Dec. 12

  • Utah at Colorado (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
  • California at Washington State (FOX, 4:00 p.m. ET)
  • USC at UCLA (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
  • Stanford at Oregon State (ESPNU, 10:30 p.m. ET)
  • Washington at Oregon (Cancelled)

With two Pac-12 games going ahead on Friday this week, the Washington-Oregon cancellation on Saturday leaves slim pickings on Saturday's board with only three games still set to go, but hopefully we can still find some winners on the card.

Pac-12 Odds - Week 15

  • Arizona State (-11.5, 56) at Arizona
  • Utah at Colorado (-2, 49.5)
  • California (-2.5, 54) at Washington State
  • USC (-3, 61.5) at UCLA
  • Stanford (-3, 52.5) at Oregon State

Subject to Change

Let's break down the games!

Pac-12 Best Bets - Week 15

Oregon State +3

We were on Stanford last week as a double digit road underdog in their outright win over Washington, but this week the Cardinal are on the fade list with it being their third straight road game.

It was a one-point win over California in their rivalry game two weeks ago – thanks to a missed XP that would have tied the game – and a hard-fought, hold on to their hats win last week against undefeated Washington.

No matter where teams are in their own seasons, rivalry games like Stanford/Cal will always peak interest in the locker room, as well as the opportunity to end a perfect season.

Don't think the same can be said for yet another game away from home, where travel is much more bumpy in 2020, against a 2-3 Oregon State team peaks the same level of interest for Stanford.

On the field, the results show otherwise, off of two straight wins, but had Stanford played to their point-spread last week and lost by 11 or 12 (or more to Washington) would we even see them as a road favorite of any number this week?

I'm not sure we would have, and Oregon State is a team that's looking to turn as far around the corner as they can in this abbreviated season.

Finishing the season with a .500 record after starting 0-2 SU, with a SU win over Oregon mixed in as well would fit the definition of a successful season for the Beavers.

Backing the Beavers against the number has already been a successful one for bettors this year, as Oregon State comes into this game on a 4-0 ATS run on the whole (4-1 ATS this year). The Oregon win came as double digit underdogs, and last week they hung around long enough with Utah to cover that spread as double digit dogs as well.

So there is a case to be made that the Beavers may be a little overvalued themselves here after two impressive performances, but last week's cover also came without their best offensive player – running back Jermar Jefferson on the field.

Jefferson will be back on the field for this contest, and with the Cardinal allowing 5.2 rushing yards per attempt this year, the back who ran for 220+ against Oregon, should have another great day in store on Saturday.

The Beavers are on a 13-3 ATS run overall dating back to last season, and with a 8-0 ATS run off a SU loss and 12-2 ATS run as an underdog being a part of that overall streak, I believe we see this Oregon State team add to it one more time, likely with an outright victory as well.

USC-UCLA Over 62

USC has scored 30+ in three straight games – the latter two blowout wins – and are still 0-4 O/U this year, as the defense has been a pleasant surprise for this program overall.

Last week's 38-13 over Washington State got on the cruise control early thanks to a 28-0 lead after the first 15 minutes, capitalizing on numerous turnovers they were practically given.

But as much as this may sound like some sort of “chase” strategy to some, I am still not a believer in thinking that this USC team – with all the offensive talent they've got – will go the full year without cashing at least one 'over' ticket.

After personally being on the 'over' in that Washington State game and ultimately not coming close thanks to the blowout nature of the game, going back to that well in this rivalry game against UCLA – a team that only knows how to play fast – is as good of an opportunity as any for the Trojans to cash an 'over ticket.

The other upper echelon offenses the Bruins faced this year (Oregon and Colorado) saw those games finish with 73 and 90 total points respectively, and the Trojans brought much more to the table offensively than either of those teams did this year.

But holding three of their past four opponents to sub-20 point nights (Arizona, Arizona State, and California), and USC's perfect run of 'unders' this year has this total about a FG lower than it should be in my view.

The popularity of 'overs' for Trojans games has to have waned after losing that approach in every USC game overall, and with the side moving in the Bruins favor, the expectation of UCLA taking this game down to the wire does suggest to me that plenty of points will be put up here as well.

Two of the three UCLA games this year that ended up being one-score games were those high scoring games vs Oregon (73 points) and Colorado (90 points), and expecting to win by holding USC under that 30-point mark is a little too much to ask in my view.

USC's two games this year that were decided by one score or less finished with 55 points (Arizona State) and 64 points (Arizona), with the former being the season opener where it took the Trojans offense a good 45 minutes to feel comfortable with themselves.

Last year's game finished with 87 points (USC won 52-35), and last week's 'under' against Washington State was the first time in their last eight tries that the Trojans have cashed an 'under' ticket after holding an opponent to fewer than 20 points in their last outing.

I don't see it happening two weeks in a row.

Not with UCLA head coach Chip Kelly and his “seven seconds or less” – to steal a basketball offensive term – offense sharing the field with USC. 80+ points like last year might be a stretch, but this game should find its way into the 70s.

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