Tech Trends – Week 3

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

16 minute read

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Week 2 of the College Football season kicks off on Friday, September 10 and concludes on Saturday, September 11.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS squads.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Sep. 16

OHIO at LOUISIANA (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

• Bobcats now 0-2 post-Solich, but have been slipping a bit lately (6-11 vs.line since 2019).
• Ohio, however, was 14-5 its last 19 as a dog for Solich.
• Cajuns won at Athens in 2019 but Napier has cooled a bit vs. sporead, only 5-10 last 15 on board since late 2019.

Tech Edge: Louisiana based on team trends.

Friday, Sep. 17

UCF at LOUISVILLE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

• Knights no cover for Gus in opener, and excluding Bethune-Cookman result, now 6-15 vs spread back to early 2019.
• Satterfield 2-5 last seven as dog after quick start in role for Cards, and even after a couple of unders to open 2021, 'Ville is on 12-5 over run since mid 2019

Tech Edge: Over based on total trends.

MARYLAND at ILLINOIS (FS1, 9:00 p.m.)

• Terps have broken 2-0 from gate but not 2-5 spread mark last seven on Big Ten road.
• Maryland 5-9 vs spread last 14 in Big Ten
• Bielema one win SU and vs. line in new gig, though Illinois did cover five of last eight as Big Ten host for Lovie Smith.

Tech Edge: Illinois based on team trends.

Saturday, Sep. 18

COASTAL CAROLINA at BUFFALO (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)

• Chants now on 14-5 spread uptick after romps past Citadel and Kansas
• CC now 6-03-1 last 10 overall as chalk
• Linguist 1-1 with Bulls after Leipold fashioned 30-14-2 spread mark preceding four years, 8-3-1 as dog since 2017.

Tech Edge: Coastal Carolina based on team trends.

UCONN at ARMY (CBSSN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Edsall out and Lou Spanos in for UConn, 7-20 vs. line since 2019, 2-10 last road dog.
• Army 4-1 vs. line last five on board, 8-5 vs. spread since last season, 4-2 vs. spread last six vs. FBS foes at West Point.

Tech Edge: Army based on negative UConn trends.

NEBRASKA at OKLAHOMA (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)

• Scott Frost 8-14 vs. spread last 21 vs. FBS does, 4-7 vs spread last 11 as vistor, 5-5 as dog since 2019.
• Sooners closed 2020 8-0 SU and 7-1 vs. line before close call vs. Tulane in opener, but bounced back big vs. WCU

Tech Edge: Oklahoma based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at MICHIGAN (BTN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Huskies now 7-3 as road dog for Hammock
• Harbaugh has won and covered first two games from gate in 2021, but was just 1-7 vs. line previous eight.
• Wolverines also 1-6 last seven vs. liine vs. non-Big Ten prior to WMU and Washington wins.

Tech Edge: Northern Illinois based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at INDIANA (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Bearcats have covered five of last six away from homr, and 9-4 vs. spread last 13 outside of AAC.
• After covering eight in row into the bowl game vs. Ole Miss, Indiana lost and failed to cover two straight prior to Idaho win.
• Hoosiers have coverd seven of last eight at home and eight of last 10 as dog.

Tech Edge: Cincinnati based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at WEST VIRGINIA (FS1, 12:00 p.m.)

• VA Tech is 2-0 at home for Fuente, but struggled lately as visitor, just 4-7 vs. line last 11 in role.
• 1-6 vs. spread in last seven vs. non-ACC in regular season.
• WVU 4-0-1 vs. line at home LY

Tech Edge: West Virginia based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at TEMPLE (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)

• Most recent meeting in 2018, BC won 45-35 but no cover for Eagles.
• Hafley now 3-2 as chalk for BC since LY, Addazio was 9-4 vs. spread his last 13 as visitor through 2019
• Owls struggling for Carey, now 3-7 in last 10 on board if counting last week's Akron win, didn't cover any of three at Linc LY.

Tech Edge: Boston College based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at PITTSBURGH (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)

• Broncos now 3-7 spread in last 10 as visitor.
• WMU is 2-9-1 last 12 as dog.
• Pittsburgh just 4-5-1 last 10 as host.

Tech Edge: Pittsburgh based on team trends

MICHIGAN STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)

• Tucker just 2-5 SU and vs. line with MSU last season but did win and cover opener at NIU.
• Richt and Manny Diaz are combined 7-14 last 21 as home chalk for Canes.

Tech Edge: Michigan State based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO at TEXAS A&M (SECN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Lobos 2-7 vs. line last nine on road.
• Fisher 10-3 vs. spread in non-SEC games with Aggies.

Tech Edge: Texas A&M based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at COLORADO (Pac-12, 1:00 p.m.)

• Fleck entered this season covering five of last six as chalk, before falling short last week vs. Miami-Ohio, and has dropped just eight of last 24 spread decisions.
• Gophers 5-2 last seven and 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine road games.
• Buffaloes got cover last week vs Texas A&M but dropped three straight vs line for Dorrell after winning and covering first four in 2020.

Tech Edge: Minnesota based on team trends.

TOLEDO at NOTRE DAME (Peacock, 2:30 p.m.)

• The Rocket Men did not play outside of MAC in truncated 2020 slate, covering 3 of 6 after 0-6-1 spread skid down stretch in 2019.
• Toledo 2-8 vs. line last 10 vs. non-MAC BCS level foes.
• Note Brian Kelly just 1-4 laying DD at South Bend last season, though was 5-2 as home chalk in 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.

PURDUE at UCONN (CBSSN, 3:00 p.m.)

• UConn back for more punishment! Picking up where it left off when last seen in 2019, Huskies now 3-28 SU last 31, and Edsall now 7-19 vs. line since 2018.
• Huskies 4-6 as Rentsch dog 2018-19.
• Purdue closed 2020 dropping last 5 vs. number, but covered 8 of 9 prior, as Brohm continues his streaky pointspread pattern.
• Brohm was 0-4 as chalk in 2020 and just 1-7 last 8 laying points, but did win and cover 2021 opener last week vs. Oregon State.

Tech Edge: Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at MASSACHUSETTS (NESN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Hafley 6-5 SU and vs. line in BC debut LY, though failed to cover both as DD chalk, and Eagles actually 0-4 in role since 2019.
• Though Eagles have won and covered vs. Minutemen in 2016 & 2018 and are 14-7 vs. spread reg season away from Chestnut Hill since early 2017.
• Walt Bell is 1-16 SU for UMass entering 2021 and just 4-12-1 vs. line, hasn’t been closer than 21 in any of those 16 losses!

Tech Edge: BC, based on UMass negatives.

TEXAS A&M vs. COLORADO in Denver (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)

• Jimbo Fisher is 9-1 vs. line against non-SEC foes since arriving at A&M in 2018. Also 12-6 vs. spread away from College Station.
• Karl Dorrell surprised for a bit in 2020 when CU won and covered first four games, though Buffs just 14-21 vs. spread prior.
• CU did cover five straight as Boulder dog before loss to Utah last December 12.

Tech Edge: Texas A&M, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at NAVY (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

• Home team has won 8 in a row in this Commander-in-Chief rivalry, and covered 7 of those 8. Force won big 40-6 LY in Colorado.
• Mids were 5-1 vs. line at Annapolis in their big 2019 campaign though just 2-4 as host since LY after heavy loss to Marshall in opener.

Tech Edge: Navy, based on series trends.

TEMPLE at AKRON (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• Temple 4-7 vs. line away for Carey since, 1-3 as DD chalk vs. FBS foes. (That’s a stretch referring to Akron!)
• Entering 2021, Zips 3-16 vs. spread since 2019 for Arth, now 3-17 at Auburn blowout loss last week.
• Akron 1-8 SU and vs. line as host for Arth, 2-12 as DD dog.

Tech Edge: Temple, based on Akron negatives.

CALIFORNIA at TCU (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

• 2018 Cheez-it-Bowl rematch from 10-7 TCU win.
• Even in compromised 2020 campaign, Cal covered both as dog, now 7-2 for Wilcox in role since 2019, 18-7 in dog role since 2017.
• Patterson covered 5 of last 6 in 2020 and was 4-1 as chalk last season, though Frogs were 5-15-1 as home chalk from 2015-19.

Tech Edge: Cal, based on team trends..

BALL STATE at PENN STATE (FS1, 3:30 p.m.)

• Ball State off of big 7-1 SU mark LY and a bowl win, also covered last five games.
• Cards 4-0 as dog LY, and have covered 8 straight getting points!
• James Franklin 9-4 vs. spread last 13 vs. non-Big Ten, though just 13-13 as DD chalk since 2017.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

BUFFALO at NEBRASKA (BTN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Under Leipold prior to this year, Bulls were 8-3-1 as dog from 2017 (not a dog in 2020).
• Leipold was also 30-14-2 vs. spread the past four seasons.
• Scott Frost on 8-14 spread skid for Huskers, 2-9 last 11 as chalk, also 1-5 vs. points last 6 vs. non-Big Ten.

Tech Edge: Buffalo, based on team trends.

UAB at GEORGIA (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

• UAB only 1-2 as dog in disheveled 2020, and did not cover getting points in 2019 (0-3), but was 9-4 as dog 2018-19 for Bill Clark.
• Note however, in the one step-up game vs. Power 5 schools since returning to the field in 2017, UAB is 0-4 SU and vs. line.
• Kirby Smart just 3-5 last 8 laying DD at Athens.

Tech Edge: Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Stadium, 3:30 p.m.)

• Taggart only covered 1 of last 6 on board in 2020 for FAU prior to late cover in last week's 2021 opener at Florida, and Owls 1-3 vs. spread at Boca Raton in 2020.
• GSU 8-4 vs. spread against FBS-level foes LY.
• This game was originally postponed in 2020 (Sept. 19) before the teams reconvened late in the season (December 5) when GSU won 20-3 at Statesboro.

Tech Edge: GSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at BOWLING GREEN (ESPN+, 4:00 p.m.)

• Note that USA 4-1 vs. line away vs. last five non-Belt foes.
• Entering 2021, BGSU awful 4-13 vs. line the past two seasons for Loeffler though was a bit better 4-4 vs. line at Doyt Perry that span (more problems on road).
• Falcs did slip within huge impost in opener at Tennessee.

Tech Edge: USA, based on team trends.

IOWA at IOWA STATE (ABC, 4:30 p.m.)

• Matt Campbell 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 vs. line against Kirk Ferentz.
• Cyclones just 6-7 vs. spread last 12 as host.
• Iowa 8-1 vs. line last nine vs. non-Big 10, 7-5 last 12 as dog.

Tech Edge: Iowa, based on team and series trends.

HOUSTON at RICE (CBSSN, 6:30 p.m.)

• Intra-city first meeting since 2018. UH has won SU last five meetings, last Rice SU win in 2010, though owls covered in 2018.
• Holgorsen yet to mark a mark with Cougs, just 7-14 SU and 3-5 as chalk.
• Bloomgren has covered 6 of last 9 for Rice since late 2019, entered 2021 on 14-9 spread uptick, and 12-7 last 19 as dog.

Tech Edge: Rice, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE at NEW MEXICO (Stadium, 7:00 p.m.)

• NMSU has split pair vs. line already in 2021, now 9-17 vs. spread since Arizona Bowl win over Utah State at end of 2017, 5-10 vs. spread last 15 as visitor.
• Note road team has covered last 3 and is 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in series vs. Lobos.
• New Mexico covered 4 of 6 playing all games outside of Albuquerque in 2020.

Tech Edge: New Mexico, based on NMSU negatives.

APPALACHIAN STATE at MIAMI-FL (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)

• App was only 4-9 vs. line since last season for Clark after good spread marks prior such as 18-8-1 from 2018-19.
• Mounties 6-2 as dog since 2017.
• Canes just 7-13 as home chalk since early 2017.

Tech Edge: App State, based on extended trends.

TEXAS STATE at FIU (ESPN+, 7:00 p.m.)

• TSU entered 2020 on 9-5 spread uptick, 3-1 vs. line away lY, if dog here note 8-4 spread mark last 12 getting points.
• Bobcats covered 2021 opener vs. Baylor last Saturday.
• FIU really had a mess last season with distractions, but Butch Davis nonetheless enters 2021 on a 5-13 spread skid, and no covers last five as host.

Tech Edge: Slight to Texas State, based on recent trends.

N.C. STATE at MISSISSIPPI STATE (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

• Wolfpack 8-4 vs. spread in 2020, and Doeren 5-2 as dog after dropping last 6 and 10 of last 11 vs. number in 2019.
• Leach entered 2021 just 9-17 last 26 vs. spread, though did cover 4 of last 5 a year ago.
• MSU just 1-4 vs. spread in Starkville last season, 2-8 last 10 vs. line as host.

Tech Edge: NCST, based on recent trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)

• EMU 26-7-1 as dog since 2016, 21-3-1 as road dog!
• After Penn State loss, Badgers just 1-5 vs. spread last six at Madison, and Paul Chryst just 12-16 vs. points last 28 on board.

Tech Edge: EMU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at SMU (ESPN+, 7:00 p.m.)

• Metroplex war! SMU has won and covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in series.
• UNT entered 2021 on 8-23 spread skid dating to early 2018.
• Entering 2021, Sonny Dykes on 7-3 spread uptick at home.

Tech Edge: SMU, based on team trends.

LIBERTY at TROY (ESPN+, 7:00 p.m.)

• Entering 2021, Hugh Freeze 17-7 vs. line at Liberty, sort of mirroring his first two years at Ole Miss when 17-9 vs. number.
• Flames have covered last 6 and 8 of last 9 away from Lynchburg, and also covered 2021 opener last week vs. Campbell.
• Troy 9-14 vs. line past two years for Chip Lindsey, 4-7 vs. line at home, 3-6 as dog.

Tech Edge: Liberty, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN+, 7:00 p.m.)

• Memphis 4-8 vs. line for Silverfield, also on 6-12 spread slump since mid 2019.
• Tigers 0-5 vs. spread away from Liberty Bowl for Silverfield.
• Red Wolves have covered last four vs. non-Belt, 6-3 last 9 as dog (all Blake Anderson numbers; now Butch Jones).

Tech Edge: Arkansas State, based on team trends.

TEXAS at ARKANSAS (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

• Former most bitter of rivals have only met five times since Hogs bolted for SEC in 1992, two of those in bowls.
• Looking forward, this rivalry likely renews almost annually when Horns move to SEC.
• Porkers covered first 6 LY and 7 of 10 for Pittman, a dog in each of those games.
• Texas closed the Tom Herman era covering just 4 of last 9 away from Austin.

Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at KENTUCKY (SECN, 7:30 p.m.)

• Dog team has covered last five in series.
• Mizzou 4-3 as dog in Drinkwitz debut LY, Mark Stoops 7-3 last 10 as home chalk.
• Mizzou had dropped previous 7 vs. line at end of Barry Odom era prior to 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Mizzou, based on series road trends.

GEORGIA STATE at NORTH CAROLINA (ESPN3, 7:30 p.m.)

• Panthers covered last 4 in positive 2020 that also included 7-3 spread mark and 6-2 as dog.
• Prior to VPI loss in opener, Mack Brown dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line LY with Heels, he’s 6-5-1 vs. line at Chapel Hill since second tour of duty began in 2019.
• UNC also 1-4 as DD chalk in 2020 after covering all four chances in role the preceding 2019.

Tech Edge: Georgia State, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON at MICHIGAN (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

• Not much info on Jimmy Lake’s U-Dub, which only played four times in 2020 (3-1 SU, 1-3 vs. line) prior to shock opening loss to Montana last week.
• Chris Petersen was also just 2-5 as dog his last four seasons previous with Huskies.
• Harbaugh entered 2021 having dropped 7 of last 8 vs. line and 8-15 vs. number last 23 on board, though successful in last week's opener vs. WMU.
• Wolverines no covers four of last five at Big House.

Tech Edge: Washington, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 10:00 p.m.)

• Vandy entered 2021 just 7-15 its previous 22 vs. line (all Derek Mason), 1-4 last 5 vs. line non-SEC, all before Clark Lea's debut loss to ETSU.
• CSU 2-6 vs. line last eight vs. non-MW after opening loss to SDSU, 2021 but had covered 6 of last 8 at Fort Collins (1-0 for Addazio LY).

Tech Edge: BYU, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at ARIZONA (Pac-12, 10:00 p.m.)

• Brady Hoke 4-2 as chalk in his return to Aztec sidelines LY, though failed to cover 2021 opener vs. NMSU.
• SDSU also entered 2021 “under” 23-8 last 31 (now 24-8 last 32).
• Cats really faded last year for Sumlin, 0-5 SU in abbreviated Pac-12 slate and no covers last four, and 2-10 last 12 on board, though did fight back to cover opener vs. BYU.

Tech Edge: Nevada, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU (ESPN, 10:00 p.m.)

• Utes have won the last nine meetings and 6-2 vs. spread last 8 vs. BYU.
• Cougs 8-3 as dog since 2018, 16-9-1 as dog since 2016, though hasn’t helped much vs. Utes.

Tech Edge: Utah, based on series trends.

UNLV at ARIZONA STATE (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m.)

• Rebs scored big upset their last trip to ASU in 2008.
• UNLV was 6-0 vs. line on road vs. Power 5 schools in Tony Sanchez era but Marcus Arroyo 0-7 SU, 1-4-2 vs. spread since LY.
• Herm Edwards no covers last seven as home chalk at Tempe.

Tech Edge: UNLV, based on team trends.

STANFORD at USC (FOX, 10:30 p.m.)

• Home team has won and covered last four in series.
• David Shaw was on a 3-12 spread skid before covering his last three games of an exciting yet reduced 2020 schedule, then dropped 2021 opener vs. K-State.
• Shaw was 1-5 as dog in 2019 but 2-1 in role LY. Shaw was 13-5 as dog from 2011-18.
• Note SC just 9-14 last 23 as chalk for Helton.

Tech Edge: Slight to SC, based on series home trends.

HAWAII at OREGON STATE (FS1, 11:00 p.m.)

• Beavs only 6-11 vs. line at home for Jonathan Smith compared to 11-3 on road! Also 13-7 vs. spread last two years.
• Hawaii “under” 8-2 since Todd Graham arrived LY.

Tech Edge: Slight to OSU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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