Tech Trends – Week 5

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

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Week  of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, September 30 and concludes on Saturday, October 2.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS squads.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Thursday, Sep. 30

VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLORIDA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

• First meeting since 2019, Miami covered and won 17-9 though Cavs covered prvious two.
• Mendenhall on 11-6 run as dog, while Canes are 0-3 vs. line against FBS-foes in 2021 - now 5-10 last 15 at Hard Rock as chalk.

Tech Edge: Virginia based on team trends.

Friday, Oct. 1

HOUSTON at TULSA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

• Holgorsen 6-4 as regular season vistor vs. the line.
• Tulsa opened as slight favorite, not its 1-5 spread mark last six as home chalk but 11-3 in lat 14 as dog.

Tech Edge: Houston, if dog, based on team trends

IOWA at MARYLAND (FS1, 8:00 p.m.)

• First meeting since 2015, Ferentz 13-4-1 vs. spread last 18 road games.
• Locksley 4-7 as Big Ten dog since taking over in 2019.

Tech Edge: Wake Forest based on team trends.

BYU at UTAH STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)

• Cougs on 10-5 spread run since last season after failing to cover vs. USF.
• Before Boise State, Utah State was 3-0 SU and vs. line, winning and covering as dogs in two.
• Utah State won and covered as dog vs. BYU in 2017 and 18.

Saturday, Sep. 25

WESTERN MICHIGAN at BUFFALO (CBSSN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Prior to Pitt, Broncos just 2-9-1 vs. previous 12 as dog.
• Bulls 2-2 vs line but 0-2 as chalk after almost blowing lead to ODU last week.
• Buff was 30-14-2 vs spread for Leipold last 4 seasons

Tech Edge: Buffalo based on extended trends.

MEMPHIS at TEMPLE (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m.)

• Tigers 0-5 as vistor vs. spread for Silverfield.
• Memphis failed to cover last two years and six straight vs. Owls.
• Temple now 3-9 last 12 on board prior to Wagner.

Tech Edge: Temple based on series trends.

TEXAS at TCU (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)

• TCU won and covered in six of seven in series.
• Texas 3-1 SU vs. line under Sark but 0-1 on road.
• TCU 7-11 vs. points last 18 as home team, Patterson 14-11 last 25 as dog.

Tech Edge: Texas based on recent trends.

TOLEDO at UMASS (12:00 p.m.)

• Rockets 1-2 as chalk after Ball State game.
• Rockets 3-7-1 last 11 laying points.
• UMass covered four of last eight, but 1-19 SU in third year with Bell.

Tech Edge: UMass based on recent trends.

MINNESOTA at PURDUE (BTN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Minny won and covered last three vs. Purdue.
• Minny covered last four on road, 7-2-1 last 10 on road.
• Brohm just 2-4 vs. spread in last 6 at home.

Tech Edge: Minnesota based on series and team trends.

MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)

• Harbaugh 4-8 vs. line last 12 away from Ann Arbor.
• Badgers won by combined score of 84-25 last two seasons vs. Michigan.
• Wisconsin just 1-5 vs. points last 10 as Big 10 hosts.

Tech Edge: Wisconin based on recent series trends.

LOUISVILLE at WAKE FOREST (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m.)

• Satterfield won and covered in last two vs. Clawson, dogs have covered last seven between both schools.
• Wake covered last nine at home vs. FBS schools.

Tech Edge: Louisville based on series trends.

DUKE at UNC (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)

• Brown has beaten Cutcliffe last two seasons, 1-0-1 vs. the line.
• Duke just 2-7-1 vs. spread last 10 on road.
• Tar Heels 6-2 vs. line last eight as home chalk

Tech Edge: UNC based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at GEORGIA TECH (ACCN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Pitt has won and covered last three vs. Tech, Narduzzi 8-3 vs. number as road team since 2019.
• Collins 5-10 vs. spread in Atlanta.

Tech Edge: Pittsburgh based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE at ILLINOIS (BTN, 12:00 p.m.)

• 49ers are 9-6 vs. spread in last 15 regular season games.
• Bielema teams now 5-14 SU and 7-11-1 vs. spread since 2016 - also just 2-7 as chalk since 2016 (0-1 with Illinois).

Tech Edge: Charlotte based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at MISSOURI (SECN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Vols have won and covered last two vs. Mizzou.
• Heupel on 6-18 spread skida at UCF & Tenn.
• Tennessee is 1-4-1 vs. points last six on road.
• Mizzou dropped last seven vs the line.

Tech Edge: Tennessee based on Missouri woes.

ARKANSAS at GEORGIA (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Arkansas 11-3 vs. line and 9-3 as dog since Pittman arrived.
• Smart just 3-5 vs. spread in last eight SEC games as home team (0-1 TY).

Tech Edge: Arkansas based on team trends.

CINCINNATI at NOTRE DAME (NBC, 2:30 p.m.)

• Bearcats covered six of last seven on road, and covered last five as dog.
• Irish 1-4 vs. spread in last five at home.

Tech Edge: Cincinnati based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at COASTAL CAROLINA (ESPN+, 2:30 p.m.)

• Chants 6-0-2 vs. line in regular season at home since LY

Tech Edge: Coastal Carolina based on team trends.

APPALACHIAN STATE at GEORGIA STATE (ESPN+, 2:00 p.m.)

• Road team is 5-0-1 in last six between two schools.
• App State 4-10 as chalk since LY.
• Panthers 6-3 vs. line last nine as home team and 2-1 as home dog.

Tech Edge: App State based on series road trend.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPN+, 2:30 p.m.)

• EMU 1-3 vs. points this season, 24-5-1 on road vs. line.
• EMU covered three of last four vs. NIU.
• Hammock 0-3-1 vs. line last four as host for NIU not counting game vs. Maine.

Tech Edge: EMU based on extended trends.

USC at COLORADO (Pac-12, 2:00 p.m.)

• Buffs 0-9 SU vs. USC since entering Pac-12.
• Dorrel 1-5 vs. line last six.
• USC just 5-7 vs. spread last 12 on board, but 6-3 last nine as road favorite.

Tech Edge: USC based on team trends.

UCF at NAVY (CBSSN, 3:30 p.m.)

• UCF 1-5 vs. spread last six on road and just 7-16 last 23 on board.
• Navy has no covers in four of last five, no SU wins in last eight

Tech Edge: UCF based on team trends

OREGON at STANFORD (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

• Ducks won and covered last two meetings.
• Webfoots 6-3 vs. line last nine on Pac-12 trail.
• Shaw just 4-8 as dog after 13-5-1 dog mark with Tree.

Tech Edge: Oregon based on recent trends.

BOWLING GREEN at KENT STATE (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• Kent has put up 62 on Green last two season, part of three straight wins and covers in series.
• Kent 4-2 vs. spread in last six conference games at home.
• Bowling Green is 4-0 vs. line this season but 0-7 as MAC visitor last two seasons.

Tech Edge: Kent State based on team and series trends.

OHIO at AKRON (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

• Ohio 0-4 SU and vs. line.
• Ohio now 6-14 vs. line since 2019.
• Zips only 4-18 vs. line and 1-1 vs. Ohio in span

Tech Edge: Akron based on recent trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• McElwain 16-8-1 vs. line with CMU, 6-1 as MAC visitor.
• Last meeting RedHawks won 2019 MAC Championship Game.

Tech Edge: CMU based on McElwain trends.

TULANE at ECU (ESPN+, 3:30 p.m.)

• Fritz 2-1 SU and vs. line against ECU
• Wave 11-5 spread uptick in regular season since 2019.
• Mike Houston 2-3 last five home games as dog

Tech Edge: Tulane based on team trends.

TEXAS TECH at WEST VIRGINIA (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)

• Wells won and covered first two vs. WVU.
• WVU 0-4 vs. line as conference host.

Tech Edge: Texas Tech based on recent and series trends.

OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)

• K-State won last two SU as massive underdogs, +27.5 and +23.5.
• Riley 3-4 vs. spread last seven as Big 12 road team
• Klieman 11-5 as dog since 2019 for Wildcats

Tech Edge: Kansas State based on team and recent trends.

OHIO STATE at RUTGERS (BTN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Ohio State 1-2-1 vs. line TY and 3-6-1 last 10 on board for Day.
• Schiano covered this game LY and is 3-1 SU and 4-0 vs. line, also 9-4 vs. spread since returning to NJ.

Tech Edge: Rutgers based on recent trends.

SYRACUSE at FSU (ACCN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Cuse covered four of last five as dog and nine of last 15 overall.
• Noles 0-4 SU TY, 4-9 vs. line since Norvell arrived and 17-32-2 vs. spread since 2017.
• FSU 4-8 last 12 as home favorites.

Tech Edge: Syracuse based on recent trends.

FIU at FAU (3:30 p.m.)

• FAU has won and covered last four vs. FIU by 19 points or more.

Tech Edge: FAU based on recent series trends.

TROY at SOUTH CAROLINA (SECN, 3:30 p.m.)

• Troy 4-2 last six vs. points, 5-3 last eight vs. spread on road.
• Carolina 3-1 vs. line, though 2-6-1 last nine at home.

Tech Edge: Troy based on team trends.

OLE MISS at ALABAMA (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

• Kiffin won and covered last four and covered two of last three as dog.
• Saban has put up 48, 66, 62, 59 and 63 on Rebs and last loss to them was 2015.
• Ole Miss covered last two vs. Alabama.
• Saban covered last five as conference host.

NEVADA at BOISE STATE (FS1, 3:30 p.m.)

• Avalos 2-1 as chalk in new Bronco job, covered eight of previous nine as home chalk prior to OKST game.
• Nevada 2-5 vs. spread last seven road conference games.

Tech Edge: Boise State based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN+, 4:00 p.m.)

• Red Wolves 1-4 vs. line last five road conference games.
• Eagles 5-1 vs. spread last six as conference host

Tech Edge: Georgia Southern based on team trends.

USF at SMU (ESPNU, 4:00 p.m.)

• USF 1-11 SU vs FBS teams, but 7-5 vs. line in those games and 6-3 last nine as dog.
• SMU 3-5 last eight as chalk vs FBS foes.
• SMU covered last three after facing TCU the week prior.

Tech Edge: USF based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at CALIFORNIA (Pac-12, 5:30 p.m.)

• Rolovich dropped last six vs. line.
• Wilcox 3-0 vs. line vs. Wazzu.
• Bears just 2-12-1 vs. spread last 15 at home, but covered vs. Wazzu in that span

Tech Edge: Cal based on series trends.

ARMY at BALL STATE (ESPN+, 5:00 p.m.)

• Army 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine as favorite before failing to cover first two laying points against WKY and UConn.
• 0-4 vs. spread for Ball State TY and 0-3 to start 2020 after ending on five-game spread surge.

Tech Edge: Army based on team trends.

UNLV at UTSA (ESPN+, 6:00 p.m.)

• UNLV 0-10 SU last 10 but 3-1-1 vs. line last five.
• UNLV covered last three on road and seven straight on road vs non-Mountain West teams.
• UTSA 16-6 spread uptick last 22

Tech Edge: UNLV based on team trends.

LOUISIANA TECH at N.C. STATE (ESPN+, 6:00 p.m.)

• Holtz 19-8 as dog from 2014-19 and 2-0 as dog TY
• Holtz 9-5 vs. spread vs. Power 5
• Doeren covered eight of last nine at home.

Tech Edge: Louisiana Tech based on extended trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at RICE (ESPN3, 6:30 p.m.)

• USM 5-12 vs. spread last 17 on board
• Owls 6-2 vs line last eight conference games.

Tech Edge: Rice based on team trends.

FLORIDA at KENTUCKY (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

• UF won last two SU vs. UK after winning 31 in row from 1987-2017
• Mullen 3-4 vs. spread last seven as SEC road team.
• Stoops 19-11-1 as dog since 2016

Tech Edge: Kentucky based on team trends.

AIR FORCE at NEW MEXCIO (FS2, 6:30 p.m.)

• Lobos on 2-14 spread skid at home
• Air Force 10-6 as chalk

Tech Edge: Air Force based on team trends.

LIBERTY at UAB (CBSSN, 7:00 p.m.)

• Flames covered 11 in row prior to Syracuse loss.
• UAB 1-4 vs. spread last five as host, Clark only 10-15 last 25 vs. points

Tech Edge: Liberty based on team trends.

BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)

• Bears 2-7 SU and 3-5-1 vs .line LY but now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS TY
• OKST 3-5 vs, line last eight at Stillwater

Tech Edge: Baylor based on recent trends.

KANSAS at IOWA STATE (FS1, 7:00 p.m.)

• Kansas 0-3-1 vs. spread.
• Kansas 1-10-1 spread skid in last 12.
• Campbell only 3-7 last 10 vs. spread as home chalk, covered three of last four vs. KU though.

Tech Edge: Iowa State based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at NEBRASKA (BTN, 7:30 p.m.)

• Cats are 7-3 vs. line against Huskers since Nebraska joined conference.
• Cats 20-3 vs. points last 23 as Big Ten road team.
• Huskers 0-4 last four conference home games as favorite

INDIANA at PENN STATE (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

• IU 1-2 Su and vs line TY, but 14-4 spread uptick and covered eight of last nine as dog prior to Iowa and Cincinnati.
• Allen covered last three vs. PSU
• PSU has won eight SU and 7-1 vs. line since starting 0-5 LY

BOSTON COLLEGE at CLEMSON (ACCN, 7:30 p.m.)

• BC 4-1-2 vs. spread last seven vs. Clemson and 16-6 as road dog since 2014.
• Clemson 0-5 ATS last five as chalk.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at MICHIGAN STATE (FS1, 7:30 p.m.)

• WKY 8-1 vs. line last nine as road dog.
• Tucker 0-3 as home favorite for MSU and no covers in lasr 13 as home favorite.

MARSHALL at MIDDLE TENNESSEE (7:00 p.m.)

• Marshall 4-0 ATS last four as visitor
• Middle Tennessee is 10-2 last 12 as CUSA dog

UCONN at VANDERBILT (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m.)

• UConn no SU wins since Oct. 26, 2019, with seven SU losses in a row.
• UConn 8-20 vs. spread since 2018.
• Vandy 2-9 vs. line last 11 in Nashville and no covers last four as chalk

MISSISSIPPI STATE at TEXAS A&M (SECN, 7:00 p.m.)

• Mike Leach is 10-20 spread skid since 2018.
• Fisher won and covered last two in series, but just 3-6 vs. line last nine at home vs. SEC teams.

LOUISIANA at SOUTH ALABAMA (ESPN+, 8:00 p.m.)

• Louisiana 7-12 spread skid, only 9-15 last 24 on board.
• South Alabama 2-6-1 spread skid but covered two of last three in series
• Jaguars under 19-7 run since 2019

OLD DOMINION at UTEP (ESPN+, 9:00 p.m.)

• ODU 6-10 vs. spread.
• UTEP 2-4 as favorite but 6-3 vs. line last nine overall.

AUBURN at LSU (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)

• Harsin 0-1 with Auburn as dog and 2-6 last six at Boise
• Under hit in 4-1 last five in series.
• LSU 6-2 last eight vs. spread against FBS foes

WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE (Pac-12, 9:00 p.m.)

• Huskies 2-6 vs. line since LY
• Beavers covered two of three meetings, no SU wins though since 2011.
• OSU 16-7 vs. spread since 2019 and 13-5 as dog

NEW MEXICO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE (10:30 p.m.)

• NMST covered three of last four.
• Spartans 0-3 last three vs. spread or four of last five since 2020, but 12-2-1 prior

ARIZONA STATE at UCLA (FS1, 10:30 p.m.)

• AZST 1-3 last four vs. spread
• Kelly 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS vs. Arizona State
• UCLA 3-1 vs spread TY

FRESNO STATE at HAWAII (CBSSN, 11:00 p.m.)

• Fresno 4-1 vs. line after UNLV game.
• Hawaii 5-8 last 13 vs. spread but covered last two
• Hawaii on 10-4 under run

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