Last Updated Oct 15, 2021, 00:00 AM
College Football Week 7 Money Moves
It’s week 7 of the college football season and we’ve got a clash of the undefeated in the SEC as Kentucky goes to Georgia. Both teams are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with an emphasis on defense for each, but the Georgia defense is hard to match. The Bulldogs are 23-point favorites with a total set at 44.5 that hasn’t moved all week.
“Our highest handled game this week is the Kentucky-Georgia game and we’ve gone from -22.5 to -23,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “Georgia has a 4-to-1 ticket ratio count and is our biggest risk so far. Our second most handled game is Alabama (-16.5) at Miss State with Alabama being our second most risk, very popular in parlays.”
Top-ranked Georgia comes in with the No. 1 ranked defense in points allowed (5.5), pass yards allowed (137), and total yards allowed (203). Kentucky has covered the number in their last six SEC games but also are among the worst at holding onto the ball with 12 turnovers. Great defense vs. a turnover machine. That’s the perception the betting public has and why they have no problem laying points again with the Bulldogs.
Georgia and Alabama are also the SuperBook’s top two teams to win the National Championship.
“We have Georgia at 10-to-11 now, -110, and if they do we’ll lose a low six figures after taking big wagers at 8-to-1 and 10-to-1 before the season started,” Blum said. “It just adds up, $1,500 at 10-to-1 along with other smaller bets, and then at 8-to-1 we took $5,000 from one guy and another laid $16,500 also at the same price.”
Alabama is the second choice to win it all at 7-to-2.
“We had some sharp play on Eastern Michigan push the game from +3 to +1 (vs. Ball State) and we also had them play Memphis in tonight’s game moving from -8.5 to -11,” Blum said.
The South Point’s Chris Andrews says their biggest sharp plays this week were Arizona (+6 at Colorado), Oklahoma State (+5 at Texas), and Florida (-12 at LSU). The spreads listed above are from today, not what numbers the sharps took.
The South Point deals with a large locals base as does Station Casinos with its 18 sportsbooks. Stations VP Jason McCormick’s sharpest plays this week included the same group as the South Point with bets on Arizona and Oklahoma State, and also included Syracuse +14 at home against Clemson on Friday night.
Syracuse has been executing their game plan well this season which has produced the nation’s No. 2 leading rusher Sean Tucker with 791 yards and 9 TDs as the Orange has been a covering machine at 5-1 ATS. Clemson has yet to cover in five games and their offense is only averaging 324 yards of offense per game. Clemson has been pounding ACC teams so bad the last four seasons, now it’s time for teams on the rise to get some revenge. In 2017 at the Carrier Dome, Clemson came in as 24-point favorites and Syracuse won 27-24. At some point, Clemson has to fall into a safe zone where they can cover their rating but they’ve dropped up to 16-points from the season opener to now.
McCormick says their top public wagers in college football this week are Oregon (-13.5 vs Cal on Friday), Michigan State (-4.5 at Indiana), and Alabama.
It’s not surprising to see the public back undefeated Michigan State on the road here at Indiana. The Spartans are 5-1 ATS along with nine other teams which include UTSA, Michigan, Iowa, Arkansas, and Bowling Green. Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker leads the nation in rushing (913 yds) and has nine TDs. Six other teams are 4-1 ATS.
The public loves betting against the worst of the worst also. Five schools are a perfect loser ATS on the season led by Clemson, Missouri, New Mexico, and Kansas. It’s part of why there was so much interest this week on Colorado State (-7 to -10.5) at New Mexico.
The South Point’s top public plays are Michigan State, Alabama, and Iowa. No surprise that Joe Public loves two undefeated teams and Alabama.
Iowa is ranked No. 2 in the nation but is only 11.5-point home favorites against Purdue who is 2-3 ATS. The number opened -11 and there weren’t many takers for big money. The Iowa offense scares away large money. They can’t be trusted and look ripe for being upset despite leading the nation with a +16 turnover ratio. Maybe not at home this week, but next week at Wisconsin will be the bet against Iowa move. If Iowa wins at Wisconsin, it should be clear sailing until the Big Ten Championship Game where Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, or Penn State will be waiting.
“Sharp money also bet a couple of totals with us, both under,” Blum said. “Michigan State-Indiana went from 50 to 47.5 and Troy-Texas State went from 50 to 47.5.”
More total moves from the Circa below.
Here’s a look at Circa Sports biggest Week 7 college football moves after they opened the numbers before anyone else at 11 am Sunday morning:
Pittsburgh PK to -5 at Virginia Tech
Cincinnati -16 to -21 vs. Central Florida
Toledo -1 to -6 at Central Michigan
Troy -4 to -7.5 at Texas State
UTSA -15 to -18.5 vs. Rice
Utah +2 to PK vs. Arizona State
Colorado State -7 to -10.5 at New Mexico
Washington +1 to -1.5 vs. UCLA
UNLV +9 to +6 to +7 vs. Utah State
Some of the Circa’s biggest total moves:
Pitt-Va Tech from 59 to 55.5
Rutgers-Northwestern 48.5 to 45
Arizona-Colorado 43.5 to 46.5
BYU-Baylor 47.5 to 50.5
Ok State-Texas 63 to 60
Toledo-Central Mich 55 to 52
Alabama-Miss State 52.5 to 57.5
Kent-Western Mich 74.5 to 66
Ole Miss-Tenn 85.5 to 82.5
Troy-Texas State 54.5 to 48
Auburn-Arkansas 50.5 to 54
Utah State-UNLV 56.5 to 62.5