Last Updated Oct 21, 2021, 8:00 PM
College Football Week 8 Money Moves
It’s time to look at some of the biggest money moves during Week 8 of college football action at Nevada sportsbooks with a reminder that sharp money wins more than they lose and that the public parlays are what is used to build all those beautiful sportsbooks.
“We’ve had a couple of games bet by sharp groups that caused numbers to run,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “BYU ran from -1 to -4 at Washington State and LSU has dropped from +11.5 to +9 for its game at Ole Miss.”
Washington State fired head coach Nick Rolovich because he refused to get the mandated COVID-19 vaccine. That figures to be BYU’s mental edge heading into the game along with being the better team.
The LSU number ran because Ole Miss QB, and Heisman Trophy candidate, Matt Corral is questionable after getting banged up last week at Tennessee, likely happening on one of his 30 carries for 195 rushing yards. LSU head coach Ed Orgeron announced Sunday he was leaving (forced) the program. LSU comes off a huge win against Florida keyed by 321 yards of rushing.
“The most public straight bets we have this week is Notre Dame against USC,” said Blum. “And the most public parlays we have so far are on, in order, Alabama, Cincinnati, and -- this is a new one -- Wake Forest. We get Alabama and Cincinnati every week, but Wake Forest is a new one for us.”
Notre Dame welcomes USC to South Bend and the Irish have gone from -6.5 to -7. Both teams had byes last week with Notre Dame having their best ground game in a win at Virginia Tech. USC comes off home losses to Oregon State and Utah sandwiched in between a win at Colorado.
Blum said Wake Forest was leading the ticket count for Parlays at the SuperBook.
Wake Forest is one of 10 teams that are still undefeated after Coastal Carolina lost 30-27 on Wednesday at Appalachian State. But the Demon Deacons have gone just 2-4 ATS. Army is the nation’s No. 2 rushing team with 295 ypg while Wake Forest’s defense allows 173 ypg rushing. The SuperBook has been -3 all week with a couple of short stops at -3.5.
Alabama has dropped from -27 at Tennessee to -25.5 as of Thursday afternoon. Station Casinos VP Jason McCormick said Tennessee, Iowa State, and undefeated Michigan (-23.5 vs. Northwestern) were their top sharp play.s on the week.
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said his top sharp plays were Toledo (+3 vs. Western Michigan), BYU, and Army.
McCormick said their top public teams this week are Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati. Andrews says they have the same exact three teams. Both chains of sportsbooks have the champagne of public bettors -- the locals in Las Vegas. And they have lots of money in their pockets this week after burying the books two straight weeks on NFL Sunday.
The Buckeyes have moved from -18.5 to -21 at Circa Sports for their road game at Indiana who are only 1-5 ATS this season. Ohio State appears to be back in normal form offensively winning its last four and covering the spread in the last three. The public can see their favorite team averaging a 48-20 score against a team that hasn't found any rhythm this season after an eye-opening 2020.
Oklahoma State is one of the undefeated teams and has covered four of six. They’ve been led by a defense allowing only 19 ppg and come off a huge win at Texas that the public is using as exhibit No. 1 to jumping on board an underdog. They don’t do that often, but they’re taking +7 here at Iowa State who statistically has a better defense than the Cowboys allowing only 251 ypg and 16 ppg. The Cyclones have gone 15-2 in October since 2017 and both losses are to Oklahoma State.
Cincinnati is another unbeaten team that is 5-1 ATS and average a 43-13 score. The AP poll has them No. 2 in the nation, let’s see how long that lasts as some of those one-loss teams start beating great opponents over the next five weeks. Navy is 1-5, 3-3 ATS, but have lost by an average score of 17-33 at home. Circa Sports has gone from Cincinnati -27 to -28. In two road games, the Bearcats have averaged a 31-18 score.
Marc Nelson’s Reno Atlantis sportsbook has seen the most public action on Cincinnati, BYU, and Oklahoma State. His top sharp play of the week so far was on Tulane getting +14.5 at SMU on Thursday night. It is now -13.5 and -13 everywhere.
“Our top total moves this week were Kent State-Ohio over 64 up to 66.5 and Georgia Tech-Virginia from 61.5 to 63.5,” Blum said.
Here’s a look at the top moves at Circa Sports since they opened Week 8 numbers the first on Sunday morning at 11 am PT:
Penn State -17 to -24 to -23 vs. Illinois
NC State +2 to -3.5 at Miami
UCLA +2 to -2 to -1 vs. Oregon
UAB -19 to -24 vs. Rice
Hawaii -14 to -18 vs New Mexico State
It should be noted that the limits for this 11 am party at Circa Sports is only $3,000, but with no competing lines out there to make bettors smarter. It’s bettor vs. the book with no help. And the Circa Sports staff moves the number fast and furious with no booking rules in the same way the books do during the week. It’s a blast to watch unfold.