Bowl Tech Trends – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

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The first week of the College Football bowl season kicks off on Friday, December 17 and concludes on Monday, December 20 with nine bowl games!

We've identified betting trends and angles for these matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Friday, Dec. 17

BAHAMAS BOWL

TOLEDO vs. MIDDLE TENNESSEE (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

• Blue Raiders only 2-4 as dog this season after covering 5 of last 6 getting points last season.
• Stockstill no bowls since 2018 but MTSU just 1-5 SU and vs. line last six bowl games since 2010.
• Rockets won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in 2021 after it looked like they might miss bowling, also closed season “over” last 4 games.
• Toledo has also lost and failed to cover its last 3 bowls (last in 2018).

Tech Edge: Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

CURE BOWL

COASTAL CAROLINA vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPN2, 6:00 p.m.)

• Huskies 7-3 vs. line in ten away from DeKalb since last season.
• First bowl since 2018 Boca Raton, and note NIU had lost and failed to cover six straight bowls to that point.
• After 12-4-1 spread surge into midseason, Chants dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread, though they are 21-3 SU since 2020.
• Note “unders” in all five of Coastal’s games away from Conway this season.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Coastal, based on “totals” and extended trends.

Saturday, Dec. 18

BOCA RATON BOWL

APPALACHIAN STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPN, 11:00 a.m.)

• Tops 9-4 vs. spread in 2021, had five-game cover streak into C-USA title game. Also “over” 9-4 this season.
• Mounties finished season “under” 6-2 last 8, also fared better vs. line than a year ago as well (7-5 vs. spread in 2021 vs. 3-9 a year ago).
• App 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line in bowls the past five years.

Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

NEW MEXICO BOWL

UTEP vs. FRESNO STATE (ESPN, 2:15 p.m.)

• First Miners bowl game since 2014. Historically, UTEP has lost and failed to cover last six bowls since winning 1967 Sun Bowl over Johnny Vaught’s Ole Miss, 14-7.
• Dimel lost 4 of last 5 SU and covered only 2 of last 5 after breaking 6-1 from gate this season, also “over” 4-1 last five in 2021.
• DeBoer not coaching this game for Bulldogs after 9-3 SU, 8-4 spread mark this season, Bulldogs 5-1 vs. spread six away from home this season.
• First bowl since 2018, after old/new HC Jeff Tedford (though not until 2022) won and covered in 2017 (Hawaii) and 2018 (Las Vegas).

Tech Edge: Slight to Fresno, based on team trends.

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

UAB vs. BYU (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)

• Blazers covered last three this season and were 8-4 vs. line.
• UAB 3-1 as dog TY, though Bill Clark just 4-6 in role since 2019. He was 13-6 getting points his first three years with Blazers, however, and 2-1 vs. line in bowls.
• Cougs failed to cover last four and five of six overall away from Provo this season. Also 2-5 vs. spread last seven in 2021.
• Sitake 3-1 SU, 2-2 vs. line in bowls.

Tech Edge: UAB, based on team trends.

LENDINGTREE BOWL

EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. LIBERTY (ESPN, 5:45 p.m.)

• Eagles were only 1-2 vs. spread in long-profitable “dog away from Ypslianti role” that had cashed 21-2 in 23 prior chances.
• Chris Creighton 0-3 SU but 3-0 vs. line in bowls with EMU.
• Hugh Freeze cooled down considerably this season, just 1-5 last six vs. line after 14-3 spread mark prior since beginning of 2020.

Tech Edge: EMU, based on extended and team trends.

L.A. BOWL

UTAH STATE vs. OREGON STATE (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

• Utags quick turnaround this season for Blake Anderson, 10-3 SU and 9-4 vs. line including covers all three outside of Mountain West.
• Also 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. spread away from Logan, and 5-2 as dog.
• At Ark State, Anderson 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls.
• Beavers 4-3 as chalk in 2021. OSU last bowl was 2013 Hawaii Bowl.

Tech Edge: Utah State, based on recent trends.

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

MARSHALL vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (ESPN, 9:15 p.m.)

• Cajuns had dropped first four vs. line away from home this season before winning and covering last two.
• ULL just 11-16 last 27 on board since mid 2019, failed to cover bowls last three years.
• Cajuns also “under” 17-6 past two seasons.
• First Herd bowl with Huff, and MU has lost and failed to cover last two bowls, but had won and covered seven in a row previously between 2009-18.
• Herd covered 4 of last 6 this season and “under” 6-2 last 8.

Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Marshall, based on “totals” and team trends.

Monday, Dec. 20

MYRTLE BEACH BOWL

OLD DOMINION vs. TULSA (ESPN, 2:30 p.m.)

• Monarchs closed season with a rush, winning and covering last five games for Rahne, and 8-3 vs. line this season. ODU also “under” 5-2 last seven.
• Golden Hurricane covered last 2 as chalk this season but still just 3-5 laying points in 2021, though Tulsa did cover last four in 2021.
• Tulsa 10-2 vs. points away from home since last season, and "over' 9-3 in 2021.
• Note Philip Montgomery covered first two bowl chances in 2015 & ‘16.

Tech Edge: Slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.

VegasInsider Staff

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