Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Georgia Bulldogs Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

Oct. 2, 2021

Thom Cunningham
VI Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Georgia Bulldogs host the Arkansas Razorbacks in a battle of unbeaten SEC teams Saturday afternoon. Who will remain undefeated and who will suffer the first loss of the season? Kick off for this anticipated game is set for Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN from Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia.

Score Prediction: Georgia 34, Arkansas 17

Best Bet: Over 48

Best Bet: Arkansas +18.5

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Georgia Bulldogs Predictions

Looking at both market trends, the point total has more conviction in it. Both schools come into Saturday's game with a 3-1 O/U record to provide bettors with a 6-2 combined point total that clearly favors the OVER. Georgia's defense is formidable, but suddenly the three-point allowance to Clemson in Week 1 doesn't seem like a huge deal considering Clemson's offense is abysmal right now.

The OVER is still a tough sell, considering both teams enter with a Top 11 defense in the nation - Georgia's no. 1 in points allowed per game (5.8). Besides the 6-2 combined O/U record this season though, there are a few trends to support the point total going OVER a relatively low line. Arkansas has gone OVER the point total in four straight games away from Fayetteville, along with four of its last six games overall.

Also, Georgia has gone OVER the point total in five straight home games. Despite the solid defensive numbers from both teams entering, the smart odds point towards playing the 6-2 O/U record combined with Arkansas's four-game road and Georgia's five-game home OVER streaks. The spread market is much more cloudy to decipher.

Arkansas has covered the spread in four straight games, while Georgia has done so in five of its last seven games. The combined ATS record for both schools this season sits at an impressive 7-1, with Arkansas going 4-0 this season. Georgia has also failed to cover the spread in four of its last six games when facing Arkansas, however, Arkansas has failed to cover 15 of its last 23 road games.

If deciding a spread wager, take a chance on the road team covering an insanely large +18.5-point spread. It's unlikely Georgia beats a good SEC team by nearly three touchdowns, and while Arkansas isn't great at covering on the road the Razorbacks have actually covered five of their last six games overall.

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Odds

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Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Resources

Matchup: SEC
Date: Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue: Sanford Stadium
Location: Athens, Georgia
TV-Time: ESPN - 12:00 p.m. ET

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Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-0
ATS: 4-0
O/U: 3-1
ATS - Home: 4-0
ATS - Away: 0-0

The Razorbacks are led by quarterback K.J. Jefferson who enters Saturday with an impressive 170.1 rating at the position. He has over 800 passing yards, over 200 rushing yards and eight total TDs. He is the x-factor of this Arkansas offense while his favorite target is Treylon Burks who has over 300 yards.

This offense is riddled with big play wide receivers, as Arkansas has six different receivers averaging over 10 yards per catch - four of those receivers have at least five catches on the season. Tyson Morris, De'Vion Warren and Warren Thompson are all capable of big plays, so Georgia's lock down defense can't take any of them (1-4) for granted).

Not that they will, but the Razorbacks have depth in the backfield that UGA will more than likely key in on. Trelon Smith, Raheim Sanders and Dominique Johnson are all productive backs with seven combined TDs and each averaging at least 5.3 or more yards per carry.

The offensive numbers are impressive, but the Arkansas defense is actually ranked 11th nationally in points allowed per game. The defense has four interceptions between Jalen Catalon and Montaric Brown, Catalon with big play ability notching 84 return yards on his two picks. The secondary also has 12 total pass deflections, so J.T. Daniels and the UGA offense will need to play better then they did on offense in Week 1 - beating up on less-talented teams since (UAB, Vanderbilt, South Carolina).

Arkansas is the best offense Georgia will have faced so far this season, so this is a great test to see where this defense stands against a formidable offense in college football. Expect Arkansas to put up more than 10 points (the most UGA has given up this season), but also expect the secondary for Arkansas to keep them within an +18.5-point spread for a majority of the game.

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 4-0
ATS: 3-1
O/U: 3-1
ATS - Home: 1-1
ATS - Away: 2-0

Georgia's defense enters Saturday as the top nationally, allowing no more than 10 points in any of its first four games. Impressive, until you look at the opponents. Clemson is showing to be nothing more than a good defense with a terrible offense, while the other three schools Georgia has faced are arguably the worst teams they will face this season (outside of FCS foes).

Still, the numbers don't lie. Georgia's secondary is a force and will be all over the WRs discussed above. Christopher Smith leads the defense with two interceptions, while UGA has five different players with an interception as well. Smith is also a big play threat with the ball, notching a TD and 94 interception returns yards.

Also consider Lewis Cine and Kelee Ringo who have seven combined pass deflections. Adam Anderson, Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean will try to pressure Jefferson as well, as the trio have combined for 7.5 sacks this season.

Georgia will need to score points however, facing a Top 11 defense in the nation and only able to muster 10 in Week 1 against a good Clemson defense. The quarterback situation has been a bit murky, for various reasons. Daniels isn't playing bad at all, but he's definitely not playing up to his Heisman odds level (12/1) with Stetson Bennett eating into his time already. Both have been productive with a combined 11:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Zamir White and Kendall Milton will ultimately dictate this offense, as time of possession will be huge in this matchup. Both [players average five or more yards per carry, along with James Cook who is having a quietly productive season. If this trio can continue to average their season per carry total then Georgia will win the possession battle and control the game.

That doesn't mean Brock Bowers or Jermaine Burton won't have opportunities, but the Arkansas's defensive strength is the secondary so the most logical attack for Georgia is to use the ground game and defense to control the clock.

The Arkansas Razorbacks have gone OVER the point total in four of their last six games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 4-0
VI Ranking: 9
Points Scored: 168
Points Allowed: 23
PS/G: 35.8 (36th)
PA/G: 14.5 (11th)

Inside the Stats - Georgia Bulldogs

Record: 4-0
VI Ranking: 2
Points Scored: 168
Points Allowed: 23
PS/G: 42 (12th)
PA/G: 5.8 (1st)

Key Players to Watch

ARK: K.J. Jefferson - QB (46/78, 844 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT)
ARK: Treylon Burks - WR (19 catches, 373 yards, 2 TD)
UGA: J.T. Daniels - QB (54/71, 567 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT)
UGA: Zamir White - RB (37 carries, 207 yards, 2 TD)

Injuries

ARK: Dalton Wagner - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
ARK: Dorian Gerald - DL (Leg-Out)
ARK: Treylon Burks - WR (Undisclosed-Probable)
ARK: K.J. Jefferson - QB (Knee-Probable)
UGA: J.T. Daniels - QB (Upper Chest- Probable)
UGA: Julian Rochester - DL (Knee-Questionable)
UGA: Dominick Blaylock - WR (hamstrong-Questionable)
UGA: Rian Davis - LB (Quad-Questionable)
UGA: George Pickens - WR (Knee-Out)
UGA: Tykee Smith - S (Foot-Questionable)
UGA: Arik Gilbert - TE (Personal-Questionable)
UGA: Jalen Kimber - DB (Shoulder-Questionable)
UGA: Kendall Milton - RB (Shoulder-Probable)
UGA: Tata Ratledge - OL (Foot-Out)
UGA: Marcus Rosemy - WR (Ankle-Questionable)
UGA: Arian Smith - WR (Shin-Questionable)
UGA: Darnell Washington - TE (Foot-Probable)

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Conclusion

The trends are too inconsistent for the spread market to be considered the better bet of it and the point total market. However, +18.5 is very high for a Top 10 meeting - along with Arkansas covering five of six games overall. Feel free to go after the large point spread for Arkansas but Georgia should win this game as the better overall team.

There are too many trends favoring the OVER to ignore, and is the smart play regardless of the result. Hindsight is always 20/20, but ignoring a combined 6-2 O/U record along with the OVER hitting in four straight for Arkansas on the road and five straight for Georgia at home isn't smart. Don't worry about the top ranked defenses battling it out, but if you are then go to the point total as it's unlikely the UNDER hits while Georgia also wins by two touchdowns and a field goal.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Georgia Bulldogs Betting Trends

Arkansas has covered four straight games.
Arkansas has lost 13 of its last 14 road games.
Georgia has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six games when facing Arkansas.
Georgia has gone OVER the point total in five straight home games.