Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Oct. 7, 2021

Stuart Durst
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Houston Cougars vs. the Tulane Green Wave is one of two games taking place on Thursday night, and you can catch it at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The AAC battle will take place from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Score Prediction: Houston 33, Tulane 24

Best Bet: Houston -5.5

Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave Predictions

Talk about an opening line moving fast. Houston opened as -3 favorites and have already jumped to -6 by Monday morning.

This is the second week in a row that Houston has dealt with a weird line, as last week it was the underdog against a 1-3 Tulsa team. Houston won that game very easily. It seems like the bookmakers made another mistake with the opening line, but sharp bettors quickly corrected their mistake placing this number at a much more reasonable -6.

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Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Odds

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Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Resources

• Matchup: AAC
• Date: Thursday, October 7, 2021
• Venue: Yulman Stadium
• Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
• TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET

• Expert Picks
• Line Movements
• Betting Trend Movements
• Weather Report
• College Football Playoff Betting

Houston Cougars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 4-1
• ATS: 3-2
• O/U: 3-2
• ATS - Home: 1-2
• ATS - Away: 2-0

Quarterback Clayton Tune is off to a decent start, he’s thrown for 970 yards this season completing 71% of his passes. With a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7:6, Tune needs to do a better job of winning the turnover battle. He's not the star of the show, but will need to be a good game manager. Houston’s offense is a unit I haven't been the highest on this season, but I think they really made a statement last week against Tulsa. They shouldn't have been underdogs in that game and they let the world know it.

The biggest critique on Houston this season would be the strength of schedule. They lost to a solid Texas Tech team in Week 1 but rebounded by blowing out all the weaker opponents they had faced. Tulsa was a question mark last week, but I think they answered any questions bookmakers ask. A pattern I've noticed is they are slow to adjust lines on teams they think haven't proven themselves yet, but I'm not sure Toledo is a good enough opponent to warrant the book's skepticism.

Overall the Toledo offense has been good this season but the Houston defense has been better. They are only allowed 15 points per game, 144.4 passing yards per game, and 254.8 total yards per game. Houston’s defense has been great this season and considering Tulane has committed the second most turnovers in the nation (13), I think Houston is well equipped to cover this number.

Tulane Green Wave Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-4
• ATS: 2-3
• O/U: 4-1
• ATS - Home: 1-1
• ATS - Away: 1-2

Tulane is not off to the start they had hoped this season. Their first game of the year, a five-point loss to No. 2 ranked Oklahoma, should inspire confidence that this team could stick with anyone. After that they beat Morgan State, as they were expected to, but have since lost three straight games to Ole Miss, UAB, and East Carolina. This definitely isn't an ideal group of opponents but they definitely needed to come out of this group with at least a win, maybe two.

Freshman quarterback Michael Pratt has impressed so far this season, throwing for 1,150 passing yards along with an 11:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. While he has shown good upside, with his dual-threat ability, this team is still much closer to the rebuild stage than the legitimate competition stage.

I do like the offensive upside this Tulane team has, but their defense has struggled a lot this season. Their strengths are unfortunately mitigated by Houston's strengths and their weaknesses will be exposed by the Cougars. I expect this team to get better and better over the course of the season, but Houston is a tough draw. If you got -3 then congrats but -6 is still plenty playable and should probably be closer to -7 or -7.5.

The favorite has covered the spread in three straight games played between Tulane and Houston. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Houston Cougars

• Record: 4-1
• VI Ranking: 49
• Points Scored: 183
• Points Allowed: 75
• PS/G: 36.6 (24th)
• PA/G: 15 (10th)

Inside the Stats - Tulane Green Wave

• Record: 1-4
• VI Ranking: 114
• Points Scored: 175
• Points Allowed: 201
• PS/G: 35 (32nd)
• PA/G: 40.2 (126th)

Key Players to Watch

• UH: Clayton Tune - QB (92/129, 970 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT)
• UH: Nathaniel Dell - WR (31 catches, 424 yards, 3 TD)
• TULA: Michael Pratt - QB (95/161, 1,159 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT)
• TULA: Tyrick James - WR (19 catches, 289 yards, 2 TD)

Injuries

• UH: Mulbah Car - RB (Knee-Questionable)
• UH: Sedrick Williams - DL (Ankle-Out)
• UH: Jayce Rogers - CB (Targetting-Out First Half)
• UH: James Fullbright III - RB (Knee-Out)

Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Conclusion

I think Houston is underrated in the grand scheme of things. Normally you worry about looking ahead in situations like this, but Houston has nothing to worry about next week and doesn't face a real test for two weeks when they face 24th-ranked SMU.

Tulane is about to truly struggle as they face Houston, SMU, Cincinnati, and UCF over the next four weeks. Its a tough situation and I expect Houston to take care of business on Thursday night.

Houston Cougars vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Trends

• Houston has covered the spread in 12 of its last 17 games when facing Tulane.
• Houston has gone OVER the point total in 13 of its last 19 road games.
• Tulane has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games.
• Tulane has lost five of its last six games.

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