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Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Predictions, Odds, Picks

 
Oct. 14, 2021
Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

A Sun Belt battle takes place on Thursday evening as the Georgia Southern Eagles travel to Mobile, Alabama to take on the South Alabama Jagaurs. Kick off is set for 7:30 p.m. and will air on ESPNU from Hancock Whitney Stadium.

Score Prediction

South Alabama 28, Georgia Southern 21

Best Bet

Under

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Predictions

Neither school has much conviction in betting on for this game, as the trends and recent play aren't too impressive to back. South Alabama, although 3-2 this season, has failed to cover the spread in seven of 11 games while also losing 17 of 25 SU. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games when playing away from Statesboro, Georgia.

History favors Georgia Southern however, winning five straight games against the Jaguars while also covering six of seven games when facing South Alabama. South Alabama, however, has covered nine of 13 games when playing in Mobile, Alabama. Both schools have had bad losses this year too, so there isn't much conviction in picking a winner here.

The point total market seems a bit more clear, although that will come down to the performance of the Georgia Southern defense. The UNDER has hit for South Alabama in 10 of its last 13 games overall, while the UNDER has also hit for South Alabama in six of its last seven home games. The Jaguars are allowing less than three touchdowns per game, which ranks 31st in the entire nation.

With a good defense playing at home and multiple trends supporting an UNDER result, the point total market seems to be the smart wager for Thursday night. We'll get into the specifics shortly, but the GSU offense struggles a bit while the defense is allowing over 30 points per game. If weary on the UNDER hitting, then take South Alabama to win SU as they are the better team and at home. Again, GSU has won five straight against South Alabama so the safe and smart odds indicate an UNDER take.

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Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Betting Odds

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Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Sun Belt
  • Date: Thursday, October 14, 2021
  • Venue: Hancock Whitney Stadium
  • Location: Mobile, Alabama
  • TV-Time: ESPNU - 7:30 p.m. ET


Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-4
  • ATS: 3-3
  • O/U: 3-2-1
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-2

The GSU offense is very much run first, as the quarterbacks have combined for a 1:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. The Eagles have 16 rushing touchdowns this season, with both Logan Wright and Gerald Green responsible for 10 of those touchdowns. The two average 6.8 yards per carry or more, while Jalen White is also averaging 6.4 yards per carry.

Besides the aerial attack, the defense is the weak link for GSU allowing 32.8 points per game which ranks 108th in the nation. The defense does have four interceptions however, along with 22 total team pass deflections. The secondary isn't too shabby, while C.J. Wright and Justin Ellis have seen strong sack total numbers.

Quin Williams will need to be everywhere on Thursday night, as he has one of the team's four interceptions to go along with a fumble recovery and a touchdown. The defense will need one or two big plays from one of the defensive names above to compete against South Alabama. If the defense competes, then the UNDER should hit easily - as the amount of points given up by the GSU defense is the only worry that the UNDER might not hit.

South Alabama Jaguars Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-2
  • ATS: 2-3
  • O/U: 2-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-2

Jalen Tolbert is the name to watch for this South Alabama offense, averaging an insane 21.8 yards per catch on 25 catches this season. What's a bit more surprising then a leading receiver averaging over 20 yards per catch is that he only has one touchdown on the year. For the amount of big plays Tolbert has seen, it's a bit disappointing to see him only cross the end zone once this season.

Regardless, he is the play maker for an offense looking to exploit an underwhelming GSU defense. To be fair, the team only has four total passing touchdowns this season, as quarterback Jake Bentley has been playing extremely safe football so far. He only averages 7.6 yards per completion but has only thrown two interceptions this season. He only has four touchdowns through the air, but has two more on the ground - with that said he is not a mobile threat by any means (23 carries, seven yards).

Kareem Walker is another name to watch as the running back has a knack for the end zone. He doesn't have many big plays (only averages 3.9 yards per carry), but has five total touchdowns which is the most from any player on this South Alabama offense. The defense gets takeaways too, with seven interceptions and four fumble recoveries already.

Tre Young has two of the team's seven interceptions, while Davyn Flenord took his 48 yards for a touchdown. Darrell Luter, Jr. also has a team-high six pass deflections, as the balance in the South Alabama secondary is very productive to say the least. Keep an eye on Wy'Kevious Thomas as well with 23 tackles, two sacks and a fumble recovery.


The Georgia Southern Eagles have won five straight games when facing the South Alabama Jaguars. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Georgia Southern Eagles

  • Record: 2-4
  • VI Ranking: 114
  • Points Scored: 149
  • Points Allowed: 196
  • PS/G: 24.8 (90th)
  • PA/G: 32.7 (108th)

Inside the Stats - South Alabama Jaguars

  • Record: 3-2
  • VI Ranking: 107
  • Points Scored: 130
  • Points Allowed: 100
  • PS/G: 26 (85th)
  • PA/G: 20 (31st)

Key Players to Watch

  • GSU: Logan Wright - RB (66 carries, 476 yards, 5 TD)
  • GSU: Gerald Green - RB (48 carries, 327 yards, 5 TD)
  • SOAL: Jake Bentley - QB (98/147, 1,116 yards, 4 TD, 2 INT)
  • SOAL: Jalen Tolbert - WR (25 catches, 544 yards, TD)

Injuries

  • GSU: Derrick Canteen - CB (Undisclosed-Out)
  • GSU: Amare Jones - RB (Ankle-Questionable)
  • GSU: Gavin Adcock - DT (Suspension-Out)
  • GSU: Todd Bradley - LB (Biceps-Out)
  • SOAL: Patrick Rosette - LB (Knee-Out)
  • SOAL: Atanza Vongor - S (Undisclosed-Out)
  • SOAL:Allen Dailey, Jr. - WR (Left Team-Out)
  • SOAL: Kareem Walker - RB (Quad-Questionable)

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Betting Conclusion

The UNDER seems to be the safe play here, as the South Alabama defense is very impressive while GSU struggles to score through the air. The points should come slowly but surely in this game. If the GSU defense allowing 32 points per game worries you then feel free to side with the Jaguars. The defense, playing a shortened week game and playing at home all indicate tough points to come by for the Eagles.

The trends point to GSU winning, but the team struggles to cover on the road. The trends point to South Alabama losing, but the team covers very well when playing at home. With crossing trends in the winner markets, stick to the UNDER hitting in 10 of 13 for South Alabama along with it hitting in six of the last seven home games for the Jaguars.

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars Betting Trends

  • Georgia Southern has covered the spread in six of its last nine games.
  • South Alabama has gone UNDER the point total in 10 of its last 13 games.
  • South Alabama has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last seven home games.
  • South Alabama has covered the spread in nine of its last 13 home games.
  • South Alabama has lost 17 of its last 25 games.

  
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