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Last Updated Oct 14, 2021, 18:00 PM

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 16, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert

This season has been special for the Cowboys as they mosey on into Austin putting their undefeated record on the line. The Longhorns will play host at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Score Prediction

Oklahoma State 38, Texas 30

Best Bets

Oklahoma State +5


Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions

It’s not easy for a professional team to move on from as crushing of a defeat as Texas suffered last week – let alone a group of college-aged young men. No matter how many experts you hear declare that loss is in the rear-view, it’s not.

Texas threw everything they could at the Sooners and still came up short. From Bijan Robinson on the ground to Casey Thompson in the air, Texas was as impressive last week as any offense we’ve seen all year. They will have to get up early on the Cowboys and put Oklahoma State in their first uncomfortable position all year. Speaking of the Sooners, fellow in-state school Oklahoma State is also coming up short on praise.

The Cowboys have some quality wins on their schedule including Baylor, K-State, and at Boise State. The offense isn’t lights out but hasn’t had to be, as their defense is numbing opponents. Maybe it’s an Oklahoma thing, but the Cowboys getting five on the road – especially following the way Texas lost – is disrespectful. Those types of motivators usually help the defense, another advantage for OK State. Cowboys win this thing outright.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds

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Texas is a 5-point home favorite over Oklahoma State. Texas is 4-2 ATS while OK State is 3-2 ATS.

The total for this game is 60 points. The Over is 4-2 with Texas this year, 2-1 in Austin.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
  • Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
  • Location: Austin, Texas
  • TV-Time: FOX - 12:00 p.m. ET

Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-0
  • ATS: 3-2
  • O/U: 2-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

It’s the opposite for Oklahoma State as their offense normally takes a back seat to their defense. The Cowboys are the 51st overall defense but haven’t put up top-125 numbers on offense. Spencer Sanders is playing okay, although he has fewer passing yards than Texas’ Robinson has rushing yards.

Jaylen Warren is decent on the ground but remains a scoring threat with six TDs. The Cowboys simply live off turnovers, creating them then exploiting shorter fields. Texas will have their own obstacles trying to penetrate OKST’s OL, which has been stellar in protecting the quarterback.

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-2
  • ATS: 4-2
  • O/U: 4-2
  • ATS - Home: 3-1
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

Letdown city in Austin come Saturday afternoon. The Longhorns offense is certainly cooking right now as Thompson added even more TDs to his now 14 on the year. He’s only thrown three interceptions through six games. Outcome aside, Robinson was impressive against the Sooners.

He’ll have to pace his offense once again, as the Cowboys pass rush is one of the better units in the nation. If Texas can open some holes, they have a shot at an early lead. Robinson leads the 21st-best rushing attack in football, but their defense gives up just over 200 rushing YPG. Texas is good enough to get points, but their defense is too much of a liability.

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma State Cowboys

  • Record: 5-0
  • VI Ranking: 5
  • Points Scored: 127
  • Points Allowed: 93
  • PS/G: 25.4 (89th)
  • PA/G: 18.6 (24th)

Inside the Stats - Texas Longhorns

  • Record: 4-2
  • VI Ranking: 20
  • Points Scored: 267
  • Points Allowed: 175
  • PS/G: 44.5 (5th)
  • PA/G: 20.2 (94th)

Key Players to Watch

  • OKST: Spencer Sanders - QB (56/96, 781 yards, 7 Total TDs, 4 INT)
  • OKST: Tay Martin - WR (21 catches, 317 yards, 2 TD)
  • TEX: Casey Thompson - QB (74/110, 1,095 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT)
  • TEX: Bijan Robinson - RB (125 carries, 789 yards, 8 TD)


  • OKST: L.D. Brown - RB (Undisclosed-Out)
  • OKST: Braydon Johnson - WR (Undisclosed-Out)
  • OKST: Tre Sterling - S (Undisclosed-Out)
  • OKST: Trace Ford - DE (Knee-Out)
  • OKST: Bryson Green - WR (Hand-Questionable)
  • OKST: Josh Sills - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • OKST: Logan Carter - FB (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • OKST: Brock Martin - DE (Arm-Questionable)
  • OKST: Dezmon Hackson - RB (Leg-Questionable)
  • OKST: Langston Anderson - WR (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • TEX: Jaden Alexis - WR (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Ishmael Ibraheem - DB (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Denzel Okafor - OL (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Jacoby Jones - DL (Foot-Out)
  • TEX: Jordan Whittington - RB (Collarbone-Out)
  • TEX: Bryaden Liebrock - TE (Shoulder-Out)
  • TEX: Troy Omeire - WR (Knee-Out)
  • TEX: Josh Tohmpson - DB (Concussion-Questionable)
  • TEX: Jahdae Barron - DB (KneeQuestionable)

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Conclusion

Oklahoma State is only 3-2 ATS this year but they’ve covered three straight games. Those are the tougher teams – including their most recent win over Baylor. Texas is certainly battle tested and has the edge hosting this game, but there seems to be this cloud of disrespect hovering over the Cowboys.

Maybe it’s just a matter of this team flying incredibly low and under the radar, but expect Oklahoma State’s offense to surprise some people, and take advantage of a physically exhausted Longhorns team.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State has covered the spread in 10 of its last 14 road games.
  • Oklahoma State has gone UNDER in 14 of its last 20 games.
  • Texas has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.
  • Texas has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.

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