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Last Updated Oct 29, 2021, 15:00 PM

Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 30, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert

The Big Ten is down to three teams on the East, and two of them square off Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. Sparty hosts the Wolverines at 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX this Saturday.

Score Prediction

Michigan 28, Michigan State 20

Best Bet

Michigan -4


Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Predictions

The line may appear disrespectful to the home team, as Michigan State – the 8th ranked team in the country – is laying over a field goal. There’s nothing truly wrong with MSU as they attack the QB and rely on RB Kenneth Walker to pace the offense.

They are a little more volitale than their upcoming opponent, especially being last in the conference in defending the pass. It’s a give and take with Sparty’s defense. They can cause turnovers by getting to the QB, but if you can fend that off, MSU is vulnerable in the air. This is more of a bad matchup against Michigan who can run the ball as well as anyone, and their defense plays consistent. They also aren’t nearly as penalized as MSU.

The reason why Michigan State is getting over a FG has to do with how well the Wolverines are playing as a whole. It also helps that MSU has yet to beat anyone with a winning record. Hard to think that upsetting Michigan and that OL will be their first credible victory. The Wolverines defense is amazing, doing what only Georgia does in keeping opponents from scoring.

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Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Odds

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Michigan is a 4-point road favorite against Michigan State. Michigan is 6-1 ATS, while the Spartans enter the game 5-1-1 ATS this year.

The total for this game is 50.5 points. Each team is 3-4 to the O/U this year.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 10/li>
  • Date: Saturday, October 30, 2021
  • Venue: Spartan Stadium
  • Location: East Lansing, Michigan
  • TV-Time: FOX - 12:00 p.m. ET

Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-0
  • ATS: 6-1
  • O/U: 3-4
  • ATS - Home: 4-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-0

Cade McNamara and the Wovlerines passing offense has taken a backseat to one of the country’s most dynamic rushing attacks. McNamara has only thrown 146 times for 5 TDs and a single INT.

The damage gets done by Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins on the ground, each totaling over 600 yards rushing and 10 TDs. The Michigan offensive line might be the best in the country, leaving a huge task for the Spartans defense to solve.

The Wolverines do move the ball in the air as much as it may not seem, led by Cornelius Johnson’s 312 Rec yards and 3 TDs. The game is won in the trenches and the Wolverines have everything to own Sparty in that matchup.

Michigan State Spartans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-0
  • ATS: 5-1-1
  • O/U: 3-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-1-1
  • ATS - Away: 4-0

Michigan State’s running game isn’t anything to shabby either. They come into the game with the 42nd overall offense in the nation. Payton Thorne is just over 1700 passing yards, adding 15 TDs and 4 INTs.

<p Walker is what moves the offense, nearly 1000 yards on the season with 9 TDs. Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor make up the top tandem at WR for Thorne. The two combined for 11 rec TDs on the season. For a team that has yet to beat anyone with a winning record, MSU sure gives up a lot in the air. Their passing defense is 214th in the nation, giving up over 286 YPG.

Inside the Stats - Michigan Wolverines

  • Record: 7-0
  • VI Ranking: 3
  • Points Scored: 264
  • Points Allowed: 100
  • PS/G: 37.7 (15th)
  • PA/G: 14.3 (2nd)

Inside the Stats - Michigan State Spartans

  • Record: 7-0
  • VI Ranking: 6
  • Points Scored: 240
  • Points Allowed: 131
  • PS/G: 34.3 (29th)
  • PA/G: 18.7 (20th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MICH: Cade McNamara - QB (92/146, 1,115 yards, 5 TD, INT)
  • MICH: Hassan Haskins - RB (124 carries, 602 yards, 10 TD)
  • MSU: Payton Thorne - QB (112/183, 1,701 yards, 15 TD, 4 INT)
  • MSU: Kenneth Walker III - RB (152 carries, 997 yards, 9 TD)

Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Conclusion

It’s simply too much for Michigan State to correct mistakes and beat a better team just because they are home. Nobody on Michigan fears Spartans Stadium, and there’s a real shot for UM to win the Big Ten overall.

Two things Michigan does super well are time of possession and limiting turnovers, two things MSU struggles with mightily. The Spartans are clearly one of the top teams in the conference, but not the best. Michigan will move one step closer to that title after Saturday.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends

  • Michigan has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
  • Michigan State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games.

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