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Oct 29, 2021

UNC Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 30, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The future is still bright for Notre Dame playing in a NY6 bowl assuming they can get through the final stretch of the season. UNC has been the definition of inconsistent, but when good, might be able to take down the Irish. The two teams will kick off 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday night on NBC at Notre Dame Stadium.

Score Prediction

Notre Dame 35, UNC 20

Best Bet

Notre Dame -2.5

Under

UNC Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Predictions

The Irish rely on their defense and Jack Coan to navigate their offense. The Tar Heels have an offense that can click, especially in the air, but it’s been victim of its own mistakes more than anything else.

The problem for the Tar Heels may simply be their defensive issues rather than anything inconsistent on offense. The Irish don’t have the best OL in the country, but they’ve managed to protect Coan and allow a decent passing game to survive. The game will come down to which team’s defense can contain the other team’s offense.

While UNC may have a couple of big plays in them, their defense is a major concern here. The Irish are missing S Kyle Hamilton with a knee injury, a huge loss for Notre Dame’s defense.

The lack of dynamic playmaking only hurt Notre Dame in their lone loss, so don’t expect UNC to lap them with huge plays. Expect the opposite, a methodical game plan of running the ball balanced with Coan making some safer throws.

It makes the Irish boring but awfully difficult to turnover, something that UNC desperately needs to stay in the game. Unfortunately for the Tar Heels and QB Sam Howell, they will run out of bullets rather quickly in a shootout.

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UNC Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Odds

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Notre Dame is a 3.5-pont home favorite against UNC. The Irish are 4-3 this year ATS while the Tarheels are 3-4 ATS.


The total for this game is 62.5 points. Both teams are 4-3 with the O/U this year.


UNC Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Resources

  • Matchup: ACC vs. Independent
  • Date: Saturday, October 30, 2021
  • Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
  • Location: Notre Dame, Indiana
  • TV-Time: NBC - 7:30 p.m. ET



UNC Tar Heels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-3
  • ATS: 3-4
  • O/U: 4-3
  • ATS - Home: 3-2
  • ATS - Away: 0-2

Howell and the Tar Heels offense has seem some great days, but they’ve also been held to a standstill. The defense for UNC lives and dies off pressuring the QB but go up against a good “enough” Irish OL.

Howell has thrown for 1851 yards, 18 TDs to 6 INTs. He’s also the Tar Heels second-leading rusher with just under 500 yards and five scores. Ty Chandler handles the rest of the rushing duties, with 588 yards and 7 rushing scores.

Josh Downs is the team’s main – and possibly only – receiver. Downs has 61 grabs on the year while nobody else on the entire teamv has 20. Add 8 scores to Downs stats and you see the major cog on Carolina’s offense. They do boast the 27th overall offense in the nation, 59th on the ground and 51st in the air.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-1
  • ATS: 4-3
  • O/U: 4-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-2
  • ATS - Away: 2-1

Coan isn’t winning the Heisman anytime soon, but only needs to be better than Howell. Coan has thrown for 1397 yards, 11 TDs to just 4 INTs, but he hasn’t taken any giant leap this season.

The Irish offense would rather ask him to make safe plays and hand it over to Kyren Williams. The Irish lead-back is over 500 yards rushing with 6 TDs. Backup and change-of-pace QB Tyler Buchner has run for 178 yards in 5 games, including in relief for Coan.

The numbers are there individually for Coan’s targets, with three guys over 300 yards. TE Michael Mayer leads the team in receiving yards and is one of four targets – including Williams – to have three receiving TDs. The Irish have the 55th ranked passing offense but 203 rd on the ground.

Inside the Stats - UNC Tar Heels

  • Record: 4-3
  • VI Ranking: 49
  • Points Scored: 258
  • Points Allowed: 202
  • PS/G: 36.9 (19th)
  • PA/G: 28.9 (92nd)

Inside the Stats - Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  • Record: 6-1
  • VI Ranking: 12
  • Points Scored: 217
  • Points Allowed: 162
  • PS/G: 31 (48th)
  • PA/G: 23.1 (52nd)

Key Players to Watch

  • UNC: Sam Howell - QB (129/211, 1,851 yards, 18 TD, 6 INT)
  • UNC: Ty Chandler - RB (106 carries, 588 yards, 7 TD)
  • ND: Jack Coan - QB (120/190, 1,397 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT)
  • ND: Kyren Williams - RB (121 carries, 501 yards, 6 TD)

UNC Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Conclusion

Howell and the Heels are going to have to be perfect while UNC’s defense needs to be lights out. It’s a parlay of circumstance for a decent-to-bad team in North Carolina, where their inconsistencies need to be hashed out in just 60 mins.

Just looking at UNC’s schedule it’s hard to figure out which Tar Heels team is even showing up, losing to three teams below .500. The Irish aren’t fighting for a playoff spot, but they are a top-10 team in the nation, deserving so. Lay the points with Notre Dame.

UNC Tar Heels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Trends

  • Notre Dame has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five home games.
  • Notre Dame has won 23 of its last 25 home games.
  • UNC has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven road games.


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