Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:37 AM

Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Picks, Predictions, Odds

Dec. 4, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

The Big 12 Championship will see the Baylor Bears take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Saturday afternoon. Kick off is set for 12:00 p.m. ET and will air on ABC from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Score Prediction

Oklahoma State 27, Baylor 23

Best Bets

Baylor +6.5 (-110) at Peppermill

Over 46.5 (-110) at Peppermill

Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Predictions

The Oklahoma State Cowboys can make the College Football Playoff for the first time in school history with a win over the Baylor Bears on Saturday and a little bit of luck. Oklahoma State was ranked No. 5 in the most recent CFP rankings on Tuesday night, and the Cowboys should be able to crack the top four assuming Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Mike Gundy knows OSU can’t look past Baylor after winning a thriller over Oklahoma in Bedlam last week though.

We have seen a lot of action on the under since this line opened. These are two of the best defenses in the country, and there were just 38 total points scored in their first meeting this season. At this point, the over is pretty tempting, and Baylor is the better side (assuming Gerry Bohanon plays) considering Dave Aranda has already seen this offense.

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Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Odds

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Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 12 Championship
  • Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
  • Venue: AT&T Stadium
  • Location: Arlington, Texas
  • TV-Time: ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET

Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-2
  • ATS: 8-4
  • O/U: 6-6

Gerry Bohanon had one of his worst games of the season the first time he faced Oklahoma State. Bohanon would love to redeem himself, but his status is in doubt for the Big 12 Championship Game. He suffered a strained hamstring two weeks ago in the win over Kansas State and missed the season finale against Texas Tech. Freshman Blake Shapen will start at quarterback for the Bears if Bohanon is unable to play.

The Bears will need to have some success running the ball against Oklahoma State if Baylor is going to pull off the upset on Saturday afternoon. They had 28 carries for 52 yards against the Cowboys in the first meeting if you take out an Abram Smith 55-yard touchdown run. Smith and Trestan Ebner have combined to run for 2,112 yards and 14 touchdowns this season for Baylor.

Tyquan Thornton is the most dangerous receiver on the team. He finished the season with 55 receptions for 875 yards and eight touchdowns, leading the Bears in all three categories. Tight end Ben Sims has been a red zone threat with five touchdown receptions.

Baylor’s defense ranks 18th in Defensive SP+. The Bears are allowing 3.7 YPC, but the pass defense has had some trouble and is surrendering 7.7 YPA.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-1
  • ATS: 9-2-1
  • O/U: 5-7

This is a strange Mike Gundy team. Oklahoma State is led by its defense for once, and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is a finalist for the Broyles Award. The Cowboys rank fifth in Defensive SP+, fourth in scoring defense (16.5 PPG), and third in total defense (270.8 YPG).

Spencer Sanders has not developed the same way we usually see Gundy’s quarterbacks take steps forward during their time in Stillwater. Sanders is completing 60.5% of his passes for 7.5 YPA with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His last two outings have not been great either.

Sanders is averaging 4.4 YPC with six touchdowns on the ground. Jaylen Warren has been a solid replacement for Chuba Hubbard too with 1,134 yards (4.8 YPC) and 11 touchdowns.

The top receiver in this offense is Tay Martin. Martin has 61 receptions for 854 yards and seven touchdowns, and the only other receiver of note is Brennan Presley. That’s part of the reason why this offense is only ranked 57th in Offensive SP+.

Inside the Stats - Baylor Bears

  • Record: 10-2
  • VI Ranking: 7
  • Points Scored: 401
  • Points Allowed: 233
  • PS/G: 33.4 (30th)
  • PA/G: 19.4 (17th)

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma State Cowboys

  • Record: 11-1
  • VI Ranking: 4
  • Points Scored: 382
  • Points Allowed: 197
  • PS/G: 31.8 (42nd)
  • PA/G: 16.4 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BAY: Abram Smith - RB (215 carries, 1,366 yards, 12 TD)
  • BAY: Gerry Bohanon - QB (166/258, 2,165 yards, 26 Total TDs, 6 INT)
  • OKST: Spencer Sanders - QB (178/295, 2,211 yards, 22 Total TDs, 8 INT)
  • OKST: Jaylen Warren - RB (237 carries, 1,134 yards, 11 TD)

Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Conclusion

This game won’t be as high scoring as past Big 12 title games, and Baylor will keep it close provided Bohanon plays. However, Oklahoma State will be able to get the win and should be in the CFP on Sunday.

Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games.
  • Baylor has gone UNDER the point total in six straight games when facing a school from Oklahoma.
  • The point total has gone UNDER in three of the last four meetings.

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