Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Picks, Predictions, Odds

Dec. 4, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Alabama 25, Georgia 22

Best Bets

Alabama +190 ML

Alabama +6.5 (-110)

Under 49.5 (-110)

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions

The Bulldogs, No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings, will hook up with the Crimson Tide, No. 3 in the rankings. This is the game many people have been waiting for, as we'll learn quite a bit about Georgia. If the Bulldogs were to lose, you still have to figure that they'll be invited to take one of the four spots in the CFP. But you will have fans from Cincinnati, Stillwater, Okla., South Bend, Ind. and even Columbus, Ohio cheering heartily for the Bulldogs to hand the Tide their second loss. No two-loss team has ever made the College Football playoffs.

Georgia posted its third shutout of the season in a 45-0 victory over rivalry Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Nov. 27. While the offense has been fine, posting 41 or more points in the final four games, and at least 30 points in each of the past 11 outings, it's the defense which has been on another plane than everybody else in the nation. The Bulldogs have allowed just 230.9 total yards per game and 6.9 PPG to rank No. 1 in the nation in both categories. They're also second overall with 151.5 passing yards per game, and just 79.4 rushing yards per outing to check in fourth in the country.

Alabama has won six consecutive games in this series, including two SEC Championship Game appearances and a national title battle on Jan. 8, 2018. The Crimson Tide registered a 41-24 win last season on Oct. 17, 2020 in Tuscaloosa, too, but it was in front of a limited crowd due to COVID. The fans will be at full throat in Atlanta. The last time the Bulldogs picked up a win in this series was Sept. 22, 2007, a 26-23 win by UGA in Tuscaloosa.

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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds

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Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Resources

  • Matchup: SEC Championship
  • Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
  • Location: Atlanta, Georgia
  • TV-Time: CBS, 4:00 p.m. ET

Georgia Bulldogs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-0
  • ATS: 8-4
  • O/U: 5-7

Georgia has been the top team in the nation without debate. No one has had the kind of consistent defensive efforts the Bulldogs have had, and the offense has done plenty to get UGA through. The closest game the Bulldogs had in the SEC this season was a 17-point win over Kentucky on Oct. 16, a 30-13 victory in between the hedges. The closest pass was a 10-3 win on a neutral field back in the regular-season opener Sept. 4 against Clemson. The offense has more than gotten on track since that game against the Tigers.

Oddly enough, Georgia won 45-0 to cover a 35.5-point number in the finale, but it hasn't covered consecutive games since a 3-0 ATS run from Sept. 25-Oct. 9. The Bulldogs are just 3-3 ATS across the past six games overall.

As far as neutral-site games are concerned, the Bulldogs have played two this season. They won their traditional neutral-site affair in Jacksonville against the Florida Gators by a 34-7 score, covering a 14-point number as the UNDER hit, and they covered as three-point underdogs to Clemson Sept. 4 in Charlotte, easily cashing the UNDER. Georgia has won just four of the past nine neutral-site games overall, while going 6-3 ATS during the span. The UNDER is 1-7-2 in those nine neutral-site contests.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-1
  • ATS: 6-6
  • O/U: 6-6

The Crimson Tide trailed the Tigers 10-0 going into the fourth quarter of the Iron Bowl against rival Auburn. The Tide scored a touchdown on a QB Bryce Young to WR Ja'Corey Brooks for a 28-yard touchdown with 24 seconds left in regulation to tie the game 10-10, forcing overtime. The Tide needed four overtimes before pushing past the Tigers, keeping their playoff hopes alive. But it gave several teams renewed hope, even after missed opportunities of their own.

Alabama was dropped 41-38 at Texas A&M on Oct. 9, and that loss really seemed to light a fire under the Tide. They went 6-0 SU in the final six games, although they failed to cover the final two after going 3-1 ATS in the four games after the A&M game. Perhaps the Iron Bowl near-miss will be another kick in the pants that they need, not that you should ever need any motivation in a conference championship game against the No. 1 team in the land with a title shot on the line.

The Crimson Tide find themselves in the unusual and rare role of underdog. They're 4-1 ATS in the past five games as an underdog, and they're 11-3 ATS in the past 14 games following a non-cover in the last game. As far as neutral-site games go, Alabama rolled Miami in the opener, winning and covering, while hitting the UNDER. In fact, the UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six neutral-site games.

In the past seven meetings, the underdog is 6-1 ATS and the OVER is 7-1-1 in the past nine meetings in this series.

UGA is 11-4 ATS in the past 15 neutral-site games, and 10-3 ATS in the past 13 neutral-site outings. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Georgia Bulldogs

  • Record: 12-0
  • VI Ranking: 1
  • Points Scored: 488
  • Points Allowed: 83
  • PS/G: 40.7
  • PA/G: 6.9

Inside the Stats - Alabama Crimson Tide

  • Record: 11-1
  • VI Ranking: 3
  • Points Scored: 512
  • Points Allowed: 239
  • PS/G: 42.7
  • PA/G: 19.9

Key Players to Watch

  • UGA: Stetson Bennett - QB (119/183, 1,985 yards, 21 TD, 5 INT)
  • UGA: Brock Bowers - TE (37 receptions, 652 yards, 11 TD)
  • BAMA: Bryce Young - QB (288/418, 3,901 yards, 40 TD, TD)
  • BAMA: Jameson Williams - WR (61 receptions, 1,261 yards, 13 TD)

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Conclusion

Listen, I am not being tin-foil hat, conspiracy theory about this. Or maybe I am, I don't know. I just don't see the college football hierarchy happy with Alabama getting bumped off, and the SEC only having one team in the College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide would keep television sets tuned in, if only for providing a villain. Nobody outside of the state of Ohio cares about Cincinnati (cheering for them) or Michigan (cheering against them). And Oklahoma State isn't going to move many needles. Sure, Notre Dame getting into the playoff would get their huge alumni base to tune in, but that's usually just one game, then they get curb-stomped. And things are a little strange in South Bend right now with Brian Kelly skidaddling for LSU, ironically an SEC team.

Alabama's Nick Saban has kept former pupil Kirby Smart at bay so far, and I think Bama is the only team which can take down Georgia. I think this is going to be the first of two meetings in the next month, with these teams meeting again for all the marbles in the first week of January.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Trends

  • Georgia is 4-1 ATS in the past five games against winning teams.
  • Georgia is 11-4 ATS in the past 15 neutral-site games.
  • Alabama is 4-1 ATS in the past five games as an underdog.
  • The UNDER is 7-1-2 in the past 10 neutral-site games for Georgia.
  • The UNDER is 6-2 in the past eight games for Georgia.
  • The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the past six neutral-site games for Alabama.
  • The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.
  • The OVER is 7-1-1 in the past nine meetings.