Last Updated Nov 25, 2022, 6:00 PM

Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Florida State Seminoles can cap off their most successful season since 2016 with a win over the rival Florida Gators on Friday night.

Florida State hasn't defeated Florida since 2017, but the Seminoles are a big favorite on Friday, November 25, when these schools meet at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Prediction

Date: Friday, November 25, 2022
Venue: Doak Campbell Stadium
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Time-TV: ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

Anthony Richardson might be suiting up for the Florida Gators for the last time on Friday night. Most mock drafts have Richardson projected to be a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and Richardson has already hinted that he is ready to leave Gainesville. Richardson would love to go out on top by leading the Gators to their fourth straight victory over the Florida State Seminoles, but he has a tall task ahead of him as the Seminoles have finally started to turn the corner under head coach Mike Norvell.

Score Prediction: Florida State 37, Florida 20
Best Bet: Florida State -9.5

More Odds | Futures Odds | CFP Central

Florida Gators Betting Analysis

There's no denying that Anthony Richardson has the potential to succeed at the next level. Richardson has the size and skillset that NFL teams covet, and he has drawn comparisons to Buffalo's Josh Allen. However, he doesn't always make the best decisions as a passer, and he struggles with his accuracy. Richardson is completing just 55.7% of his passes this season, and he hasn't completed more than 61% of his passes against an FBS opponent since Week 1 against Utah. Additionally, he showed a reticence to take off and run last week against Vanderbilt. Richardson may already have the NFL on his mind, and if he decides that he isn't comfortable running the ball often against FSU, it's going to be a long night for Florida's offense.

Florida is going to be without a number of wide receivers this weekend too. Xzavier Henderson and Justin Shorter have both been declared out, and they have been the top two receivers for the Gators this season. Three other receivers have been ruled out, so the pressure will be on Arizona State transfer Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall isn't 100% himself, but Billy Napier has stated that he expects his top remaining receiver to be on the field. Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne might see more carries than usual as a result of those injuries, and both Johnson and Etienne have been efficient on the ground.

The Gators' defense is ranked 71st in SP+. They have been awful on third down, ranking 127th nationally in third down defense, and they have had trouble stopping the run and the pass. Florida has just 19 sacks this season, and the Gators will be without top linebacker Ventrell Miller for the first half after he was ejected in last week's loss against Vanderbilt.

Florida State Seminoles Betting Analysis

Jordan Travis has had a superb season under center for Florida State. Travis was a very unpolished passer in 2021, but Mike Norvell has been able to play to his strengths, and we have seen considerable improvement from the dual-threat quarterback. He is completing 65.3% of his passes for 2,526 yards (8.9 YPA) with 21 touchdowns and four interceptions. Additionally, Travis is averaging 4.7 YPC and is still dangerous when he decides to try and make something happen with his legs.

The Seminoles can run the ball very well too. This is a top 25 rushing offense powered by Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward. Benson has run for 854 yards (7.1 YPC) and six touchdowns, while Ward has run for 538 yards (6.6 YPC) and five TDs. Lawrance Toafili is a solid runner too, but he isn't as effective as either Benson or Ward. Meanwhile, Johnny Wilson is clearly the top target in the passing game, averaging 19.7 YPR.

Florida State is ranked 27th in Defensive SP+. The Seminoles have a potential first-round pick in Albany transfer Jared Verse who has 7.5 sacks on the season. They do a solid job of stopping the run, but they are great against the pass, allowing just 5.8 YPA and 163.8 YPG through the air. Greedy Vance has three of FSU's seven interceptions on the season.

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