Last Updated Dec 03, 2022, 12:02 PM

Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Picks, Predictions, Odds

The TCU Horned Frogs will make it to the College Football Playoff for the first time ever with a win over the Kansas State Wildcats in the Big 12 Championship Game this week. TCU is ranked No. 3 in the CFP after a 12-0 regular season and beat Kansas State by 10 points earlier this year. However, the Horned Frogs are less than a field goal favorite over the Wildcats, and many are calling for the upset on Saturday. These teams will meet for the Big 12 Title on December 3, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC from AT&T Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Prediction

The first meeting between these teams saw Kansas State leading TCU 28-17 at halftime. The Wildcats looked like they would cruise to a win over the Horned Frogs, but then they fell apart in the second half. In its five second half possessions, Kansas State had two missed field goals, two interceptions, and turned the ball over on downs. Additionally, the Horned Frogs took the lead on a busted coverage that resulted in a 55-yard touchdown reception for Quentin Johnston.

Kansas State should be able to win the rematch given the emergence of Will Howard. He has taken over under center for Adrian Martinez, and he has made this offense much more explosive. Meanwhile, TCU's offense isn't as efficient as it was earlier in the year due to Quentin Johnston's ankle injury. Johnston is the only TCU receiver that can truly stretch the field, and the Horned Frogs won't be able to get the job done with him not at 100%.

Score Prediction: Kansas State 34, TCU 30
Best Bet: Kansas State +2.5 (-110)

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Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Resources

  • Date: Saturday, December 3, 2022
  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Venue: AT&T Stadium
  • Location: Arlington, Texas
  • Time-TV: ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET
  • Expert Picks

Kansas State Wildcats Betting Analysis

Will Howard has brought a new dynamic to Kansas State's offense. The Wildcats did a lot of RPO with Adrian Martinez under center through the first half of the season in order to take advantage of Martinez's speed and mobility. However, Martinez wasn't that good of a passer, and that led to Howard eventually taking over at quarterback. Howard is averaging 9.3 YPA with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions on the year, and he has only been sacked three times. That has led to Kansas State scoring at least 27 points in each of its last six games to close out the season.

Deuce Vaughn didn't see enough action the last time Kansas State played TCU, and you can be sure that he will have more touches in the rematch. Vaughn has been one of the top running backs in the Big 12 for two straight seasons, and he has run for 1,295 yards (5.3 YPC) and seven touchdowns this season. He is averaging 8.7 YPR as the player with the second-more receptions on the team too. Malik Knowles is the top overall receiver for the Wildcats with 46 receptions for 679 yards and two touchdowns, but there are five players on this offense that have at least 340 receiving yards.

Kansas State's defense is ranked 15th in SP+. The Wildcats are led by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Felix Anudike-Uzomah who recorded 7.5 sacks and two forced fumbles, and they rank 11th nationally in interception rate. Three different players have at least three interceptions, so they can punish TCU's passing attack if the Horned Frogs get too greedy looking for big plays.

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TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Max Duggan has had a sensational senior season for TCU. Duggan wasn't the No. 1 quarterback at the start of the season after three largely mediocre years with the Horned Frogs, but he ended up thriving in Sonny Dykes' offense. He has completed 66.6% of his passes for 3,070 yards (9.2 YPA) with 29 touchdowns and three interceptions so far this campaign. However, Duggan has had some struggles over the last month, so the book might be out to a degree on this offense.

Quentin Johnston has missed two of the last four games with an ankle injury, so he won't be at his best this week. That will put a lot of pressure on TCU's No. 2 receiver Taye Barber who has 31 receptions for 567 yards and three touchdowns on the year. Leading rusher Kendre Miller is a little banged up too, and he wasn't as effective the last two weeks as he was earlier in the season. Miller has run for 1,260 yards (6.3 YPC) and 16 touchdowns this season, but he isn't much of a receiver out of the backfield.

TCU's defense is ranked 31st in SP+. The Horned Frogs have had a little trouble stopping the run at times, allowing 4.1 YPC and 149.7 YPG on the ground. Linebacker Dee Winters was a First Team All-Big 12 selection and leads the Horned Frogs with 6.5 sacks, while defensive backs Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton were also First Team All-Conference picks after combining for six interceptions. This defensive line can be gashed up front though by a team that can keep it close and stick to the ground game.

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