L.A. Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds: Utah State vs. Oregon State

Dec. 18, 2021
Jonathan Willis
VI Betting Expert

The L.A. Bowl is set for Saturday night as the Utah State Aggies will take on the Pac-12's Oregon State Beavers. Opening kick is set for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air on ABC from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

Score Prediction

Utah State 34, Oregon State 30

Best Bets

Utah State +7.5 (-110) at South Point

L.A. Bowl Predictions

Although the Aggies won 10 games and claimed the MWC Title, they are underdogs ahead of this game. Former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson has been a superb hire for Utah State. Anderson brought some of his best players from Jonesboro with him, and the Aggies could have their second 11-win season in the last four years. Oregon State has been very vulnerable outside of Corvallis this season, and the Beavers shouldn’t be this much of a favorite.

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L.A. Bowl Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Mountain West vs. Pac-12
  • Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
  • Venue: SoFi Stadium
  • Location: Inglewood, California
  • TV-Time: ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET

Utah State Aggies Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-3
  • ATS: 9-4
  • O/U: 6-7

Logan Bonner has had a fantastic season under center for Utah State. He torched San Diego State’s defense in the MWC Championship Game, and Bonner has thrown for over 3,500 yards (8.5 YPA) with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Bonner threw an interception in seven straight games to start the season, but he has settled down to be one of the best Group of Five quarterbacks.

Leading receiver Deven Thompkins has had a breakout year. Thompkins has 96 receptions for 1,589 yards and nine touchdowns, and he has almost double the receiving yards that he did in his first three seasons on campus combined. Brandon Bowling is the second leading receiver and came over from Arkansas State with Anderson and Bonner.

The Aggies are only averaging 3.6 YPC. Calvin Tyler Jr. and Elelyon Noa have run for 1,339 yards (4.5 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. Bonner isn’t much of a mobile threat, but backup quarterback Andrew Peasley is averaging 6.4 YPC.

Utah State is allowing 25.4 PPG and its third down defense has been very good. The Aggies are allowing opponents to convert just 34.2% of their third downs, helping them get off the field.

Oregon State Beavers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-5
  • ATS: 7-5
  • O/U: 6-6

Chance Nolan has been pretty good, but his home/road splits have been alarming this season. Nolan is completing 69.6% of his passes for 8.6 YPA with 10 touchdowns an interception at home, and he is completing 58.9% of his passes for 8.2 YPA with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions on the road. He is a decent running threat, averaging 4.6 YPC with three touchdowns.

The best running back in the Pac 12 this season was B.J. Baylor. Baylor ran for 1,259 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 6.0 YPC. His home/road splits aren’t as stark as those of Nolan, but he was better in Corvallis. Baylor isn’t much of a receiving threat out of the backfield, so that’s something Utah State can key on.

Trevon Bradford leads the Beavers with 40 receptions for 606 yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Teagan Quitoraino is a red zone threat, but the only other player with 25 receptions is Tre’Shaun Harrison.

Oregon State doesn’t have a great defense. The Beavers rank outside the top 75 in scoring defense and total defense. They are 85th in Defensive SP+, but linebacker Avery Roberts has been very good with 123 tackles.

Oregon State has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games when playing in California. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Utah State Aggies

  • Record: 10-3
  • VI Ranking: 33
  • Points Scored: 431
  • Points Allowed: 329
  • PS/G: 33.2 (31st)
  • PA/G: 25.3 (58th)

Inside the Stats - Oregon State Beavers

  • Record: 7-5
  • VI Ranking: 54
  • Points Scored: 393
  • Points Allowed: 311
  • PS/G: 32.8 (35th)
  • PA/G: 25.9 (64th)

Key Players to Watch

  • UTST: Logan Booner - QB (257/420, 3,554 yards, 36 TD, 11 INT)
  • UTST: Deven Thompkins - WR (96 catches, 1,589 yards, 9 TD)
  • ORST: Chance Nolan - QB (183/288, 2,414 yards, 19 TD, 9 INT)
  • ORST: B.J. Baylor - RB (209 carries, 1,259 yards, 13 TD)

L.A. Bowl Betting Conclusion

Continuity will help Utah State get past Oregon State in the inaugural Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl. The Aggies have a very dangerous offense, and Bonner has been sharp in recent weeks. They will move the ball effectively against the Beavers and pull off the upset.

L.A. Bowl Betting Trends

  • Utah State has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in California.
  • Oregon State has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games when playing in California.
  • Oregon State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games away from Corvallis.