Peach Bowl Picks, Predictions and Odds: Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State
The Pittsburgh Panthers will look to win this year's Peach Bowl as they take on the Michigan State Spartans. Opening kick is set for 7:00 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN from the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.
Score Prediction
Pittsburgh 31, Michigan State 27
Best Bets
Pittsburgh +3 (-110) at Mirage-MGM
Peach Bowl Predictions
The first New Year’s Six game of this bowl season features two teams that had very successful years. The Michigan State Spartans went 10-2 and were ranked No. 5 at one point, and the Pittsburgh Panthers won their first ACC title after dominating Wake Forest earlier this month.
We won’t see the best player for either Pittsburgh or Michigan State in the Peach Bowl. Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Walker III both opted out of this game to focus on the NFL Draft, leading to questions about both offenses. However, this game is still likely to go over the total since neither secondary is very good.
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- Matchup: ACC vs. Big 10
- Date: Thursday, December 30, 2021
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia
- TV-Time: ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 11-2
- ATS: 10-3
- O/U: 8-5
Nick Patti will get the start for Pittsburgh. Patti has been with the Panthers for three years, but he has played sparingly behind Pickett. Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for 458 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in his time with Pitt.
The good news for Patti is that he will have the best receiver in the country to throw to in Jordan Addison. Addison was the Biletnikoff Award winner after hauling in 93 passes for 1,479 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Jared Wayne was a solid option too with 46 receptions for 654 yards and five touchdowns. Taysir Mack has decided to opt out of this game to enter the NFL Draft though.
Pittsburgh doesn’t run the ball too well. The Panthers are averaging 4.1 YPC as a team, and three running backs split carries in the backfield. Israel Abanikanda (5.4 YPC) is the most explosive runner of the trio, but Vincent Davis and Rodney Hammond Jr. will see action.
The Panthers have been superb at stopping the run this season. Pittsburgh is allowing 2.7 YPC and 91.2 YPG on the ground, ranking fifth and sixth nationally in those categories. However, the secondary ranks 114th in pass defense and starting cornerback Damarri Mathis opted out of this game.
Michigan State Spartans Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 10-2
- ATS: 8-3-1
- O/U: 7-5
Jordon Simmons will carry the load for Michigan State with Walker III going pro. Simmons carried the ball 54 times for 255 yards this season, while no other running back had more than 12 carries for the Spartans this season. We might see more running from Payton Thorne too with the aim of keeping Pitt’s defense off balance.
Thorne was very good off play action this season. He’s not a quarterback that will take over the game, but he can keep the chains moving with his arm. Thorne completed just over 60% of his passes for 8.5 YPA with 24 touchdowns and nine picks.
Michigan State has two superb receivers in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor. Reed led the Spartans with 53 receptions for 946 yards and eight touchdowns this season, while Nailor averaged 18.9 YPR. Nailor hasn’t played since Halloween weekend due to an injury, but he is reportedly ready to go on Thursday.
The Spartans have a top 15 run defense. This front seven is allowing just 3.4 YPC and 113.3 YPG to opponents in the run game. However, the secondary has been repeatedly torched. Michigan State ranks dead last in pass defense nationally, surrendering 356.3 YPG to quarterbacks.
Michigan State has lost two straight games after winning the game prior. (AP)
Inside the Stats - Pittsburgh Panthers
- Record: 11-2
- VI Ranking: 18
- Points Scored: 559
- Points Allowed: 300
- PS/G: 43 (3rd)
- PA/G: 23.1 (41st)
Inside the Stats - Michigan State Spartans
- Record: 10-2
- VI Ranking: 10
- Points Scored: 383
- Points Allowed: 308
- PS/G: 31.9 (41st)
- PA/G: 25.7 (59th)
Key Players to Watch
- PITT: Jordan Addison - WR (93 catches, 1,479 yards, 17 TD)
- PITT: Israel Abanikanda - RB (118 carries, 635 yards, 7 TD)
- MSU: Payton Thorne - QB (206/339, 2,886 yards, 24 TD, 9 INT)
- MSU: Jalen Nailor - WR (31 catches, 587 yards, 6 TD)
Peach Bowl Betting Conclusion
There are a lot of variables to consider with this game. This game is a coin flip, so Pittsburgh has a little more value than Michigan State. Patti has a lot of experience in this system, and he can do a respectable job filling in for Pickett.
Peach Bowl Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 games.
- Pittsburgh has gone OVER the point total in four straight games when facing a Top 15 AP-ranked school.
- Michigan State has lost two straight games after winning the game prior.
- Pittsburgh has won five straight games.
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