Crystal Palace vs. Wolves Prediction, Odds, and Best Bet

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

With the season winding down, Crystal Palace return to Selhurst Park just days after their FA Cup victory over Manchester City. All eyes will be on how Oliver Glasner rotates his squad. With nothing left to play for in the league, fatigue and focus could become factors.

Updated on 5/21/25

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The Eagles have turned things around in 2025 under Oliver Glasner, while Wolves arrive with no pressure and a solid away record under Vitor Pereira. The stakes might be low, but both sides have shown attacking flair in recent weeks, and this could turn into a surprisingly open affair.

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Analysis of the Match

Oliver Glasner’s men have turned a corner in recent weeks, remaining unbeaten in their last five Premier League games. They've tightened up at the back since shipping ten goals across two matches in March, and Dean Henderson’s performances have been key, boasting a save percentage of 67.8% this season and 38 career clean sheets.

Statistically, however, Palace’s season tells a different story. Their expected goals (xG) of 57.0, from which they managed just 46 goals, show an ineffective or unlucky offensive. While Jean-Philippe Mateta has been reliable, scoring 0.52 goals per 90 minutes across this season, Palace are still often overly reliant on individual brilliance rather than cohesive attacking play.

Wolves, meanwhile, are averaging 1.1 points per match, with a total of 51 goals this season, outperforming their xG of 41.3 significantly. Matheus Cunha has been one of their few creative constants, contributing an average of 0.29 xG90. Furthermore, his 15 goals are far more than expected.

Yet, defensively, Wolves remain fragile. With 64 goals conceded so far, they are among the weakest in the Premier League. At the moment, the only worse teams are Southampton (82), Leicester (78), and Ipswich (77). Jose Sa’s numbers have declined this season, and the team’s clean sheet percentage of 22.2% reflects that vulnerability.

All in all, the game pits two inconsistent but dangerous sides against each other. With Palace in better form and playing at home, they may have the slight edge, especially if their Wembley hangover doesn’t catch up to them.

Looking at the most recent history, goals seem like the most logical choice. With no significant stakes to affect gameplay, an open game seems the most logical. Four of their last five meetings across all competitions ended with both teams scoring, and the same four also saw over 2.5 goals.

Crystal Palace Analysis and Form

Clinching a result away at Tottenham might not represent the biggest of achievements this season. Still, if you add Crystal Palace's 0-2 victory alongside other recent results, it showcases what kind of level they're operating at right now.

The Eagles have played Bournemouth (0-0), Arsenal (2-2), Aston Villa in an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley, Nottingham Forest (1-1) and Spurs in their last five matches. They've avoided defeat in all five, beating Aston Villa 3-0 in a high-pressure Wembley outing, and scored two at the Emirates - only five sides have recorded multiple strikes versus the Gunners on home soil in 2024/25.

It should be noted that this five-game stretch came after conceding five goals apiece at the Etihad (5-2) and then St James' Park (5-0). Yet, for Oliver Glasner's side to dust themselves down and get back to these performance levels, with nothing on the line in terms of jostling for positions in the Premier League, it's an impressive run of form.

Since the turn of the year, Crystal Palace ranks as the seventh-best team in England's top flight, returning 29 points from a possible 51. Their 2025 points haul outshines Chelsea (28), Brighton (28), Nottingham Forest (25) and Bournemouth (23).

However, Palace’s victory in the FA Cup presents a problem. The players will be celebrating the first piece of silverware in the club’s history. The Premier League clash with Wolves falls just three days later. Not only will Wolves benefit from a more extended rest period, but they will also be taking on a fatigued Palace that defended for their lives for much of the final at Wembley.

Wolves Analysis and Form

Wolves had nine points from 16 Premier League games when Vitor Pereira was appointed as Molineux head honcho on 19 December. The Old Gold languished in 19th place, second from bottom, four points ahead of Southampton and five behind now relegated Leicester City.

Fast forward 20 games, and Wolves have jumped from 19th to 14th. On the face of things, it sounds like a rather modest move up the table. However, if you analyse the 20-game timeframe following Pereira taking the reins in Wolverhampton, you'll see a rather incredible turnaround from the team devoid of confidence under former manager, Gary O'Neil.

The 32 points returned in the last twenty games from Pereira's 19 December start date have Wolves in 9th in the table, level with Brentford just ahead on goal difference. Only four teams - all in the Premier League's current top seven - have won more games since Pereira's arrival than Wolves (10).

The ‘new manager bounce’ has certainly reared its head in the part of England, with that being most evident in Wolves' recent six-game winning streak (13-4 aggregate score) through March and April, downing the likes of Tottenham (4-2), Manchester United (0-1), West Ham (1-0), and the relegated trio. 

Recent Manchester City and Brighton defeats, as both hunt European qualification, will have been a dampener for Wolves and Pereira, but we should remind ourselves that motivation levels might be dwindling. When facing another outfit without much on the line, like Crystal Palace, Wolves might match them pound for pound.

Head to Head

The hosts boast an excellent home record in this fixture, having won all the last four home matches with an aggregate score of 8-3. Since October 2018, Wolves have won in just one (1-0 in the 2018/19 season) of their five visits to Selhurst Park, snatching a 1-1 draw in September 2019 thanks to Diogo Jota’s stoppage time equaliser. 

Due to the 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture this season, the Eagles extended their Premier League unbeaten run against Wolves to three games. Avoiding defeat on Sunday means that the South London club would match their longest unbeaten streak (four games, between January 2021 and October 2022) in the head-to-head. 

Despite the last two Palace wins at home being high-scoring matches (3-2 and 2-1), this fixture is normally cagey. In fact, the previous four Premier League games had produced only six goals. 

Curiously, there have been just two draws (2-2 this season at Molineux and 1-1, at Selhurst Park, back in September 2019) in the past 13 Premier League meetings between these two sides.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Crystal Palace predicted starting lineup:
Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Kamada, Hughes, Chilwell; Devenny, Eze, Nketiah.

Wolves predicted starting lineup:
Sa; Gomes, Agbadou, Doherty; Semedo, Ait-Nouri, Joao Gomes, Andre; Munetsi, Cunha; Strand Larsen

Oliver Glasner’s selection will largely hinge on the outcome of the FA Cup final on Saturday, 17 May against Manchester City. Should that game go into extra time the German manager might decide to initially rest some of his key players for the last home league match. 

Crystal Palace are expected to line up with their usual 3-4-3 formation and the same defensive line that kept Tottenham from scoring last weekend. In midfield, Kamada and Chilwell might replace Lerma and Mitchell, with Wharton and Doucoure likely to miss this match due to injury. Up front, Sarr and Mateta should make way for Devenny and Nketiah. 

Vitor Pereira should make only a change to the starting XI that lost 2-0 to Brighton in the previous matchday. Strand-Larsen is poised to reclaim his spot at centre-forward, replacing Gonçalo Guedes. 

With six players unavailable (Hwang, Leon Chiwome, Gonzalez Medina, Kalajdzic, Mosquera and backup goalkeeper Johnstone), the visitors should be otherwise unchanged, with defenders Toti Gomes, Agbadou and Doherty in front of Portuguese goalkeeper Sa. 

Semedo, Ait-Nouri, Joao Gomes and Andre will feature in midfield, with Munetsi and Cunha tasked to link up the play and create goalscoring chances for the Norwegian centre-forward.

Best Bet: Match - Under 24.5 Shots (-125)

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson