Dry January Completion Odds 2026: Where the Month Is Easiest — and Hardest — to Finish
Dry January starts the same everywhere. Finishing it doesn’t.
Where you live plays a big role in how easy it is to stay alcohol-free for a month. Some states make Dry January feel manageable. Others turn it into a long shot.
So we priced it like an outcome.
We combined state-level indicators tied to alcohol use, health habits, and January conditions, then converted the results into implied probabilities.
The Dry January Completion Odds Index ranks all 50 U.S. states by implied probability — the percentage chance that the average adult makes it to February 1 without drinking.
In simple terms, implied probability answers one question:
Out of 100 people in this state, how many are likely to finish Dry January?
A 60% implied probability means Dry January is favored.
A 40% probability is closer to a coin flip.
Below 25%, it’s a real grind.
No state is a lock. But some clearly give you better odds than others.
Key Findings
- Utah ranks #1 with the highest chance of finishing Dry January.
Its implied probability is 62.97%, the best in the country. - Minnesota, Vermont, Alaska, and Wisconsin round out the top five.
All have implied probabilities above 55%, showing strong follow-through even in winter. - Warm weather doesn’t make Dry January easy.
Hawaii ranks #12 at 50.35%, barely better than a coin flip. - Large, social states are less likely to finish the month.
New York (49.86%), California (46.30%), and Illinois (44.48%) all fall below 50%. - The lowest odds are in the South.
Mississippi ranks last at 15.65%, followed by Louisiana (17.35%), Kentucky (17.72%), and Alabama (19.17%). - The difference is stark.
Finishing Dry January in Utah (62.97%) is roughly four times more likely than in Mississippi (15.65%).
Top 5 States Most Likely to Finish Dry January
#1 Utah
Implied probability: 62.97%
Utah ranks first because binge drinking rates are low and non-drinking is common. Fewer social drinking triggers make a full month without alcohol more achievable.
#2 Minnesota
Implied probability: 62.37%
Minnesota combines strong physical-activity habits with consistent routine-following. Even with cold January weather, the data shows people here are more likely to stick with lifestyle goals.
#3 Vermont
Implied probability: 57.92%
Vermont scores well on self-regulation signals like activity levels and lower smoking rates, which are linked to better follow-through on month-long challenges.
#4 Alaska
Implied probability: 55.67%
Alaska has the harshest January conditions in the dataset, but its binge drinking rate is lower than many southern states. That balance keeps it in the top five.
#5 Wisconsin
Implied probability: 55.37%
Wisconsin’s odds reflect moderate binge drinking paired with relatively strong health and activity indicators, helping offset winter and social pressure.
Vegas Insider analyst: “Lower binge drinking matters more than weather.”
States Ranked 6–10 (Quick Look)
- #6 Colorado — 54.86%
High physical activity helps counter a more social drinking culture. - #7 New Hampshire — 53.93%
Strong self-regulation signals keep odds favorable despite cold winters. - #8 Washington — 52.32%
Active lifestyles help, but higher social drinking pulls the probability closer to even. - #9 Massachusetts — 51.44%
Moderate binge drinking and mixed health habits keep the state just above 50%. - #10 Connecticut — 51.08%
Solid health indicators are offset by stronger drinking norms, leaving little margin.
All five states sit only slightly above a coin flip — meaning Dry January is favored, but just barely.
The 10 States Least Likely to Finish Dry January
1. Mississippi
Implied probability: 15.65%
Mississippi ranks last due to some of the highest binge drinking and smoking rates in the dataset, paired with low physical activity.
2. Louisiana
Implied probability: 17.35%
Louisiana’s odds are pulled down by heavy social drinking and higher-risk alcohol patterns across major cities.
3. Kentucky
Implied probability: 17.72%
Kentucky posts low physical activity levels and elevated smoking prevalence — both linked to weaker habit follow-through.
4. Alabama
Implied probability: 19.17%
Alabama combines higher binge drinking with fewer health-routine indicators that support month-long behavior change.
5. Arkansas
Implied probability: 19.57%
Arkansas shows above-average alcohol risk and limited lifestyle signals that typically support abstinence challenges.
6–10 (Quick Look)
- West Virginia — 20.95%
Low self-regulation scores and high smoking rates - Florida — 22.43%
Strong social drinking culture despite warm weather - Oklahoma — 23.94%
Lower activity levels and moderate binge drinking - Tennessee — 24.40%
Higher-risk drinking patterns across major cities - South Carolina — 24.62%
Weaker health-routine indicators relative to other states
Expert Insight
“Dry January isn’t just about willpower. It’s about culture. In states where drinking is part of everyday social life, the odds of finishing the month are much lower.”
“The implied probability shows how friendly a state is to staying dry. Near 60%, Dry January is a realistic bet. Below 25%, it’s a long shot — because the environment works against you.”
Vegas Insider analyst
Final Takeaway
Dry January isn’t the same bet everywhere.
The data shows clear differences between states where finishing the month is priced like a favorite and those where it’s a long shot. Higher binge drinking rates, stronger social pressure to drink, and weaker health routines all push the odds down — while cultures that already support moderation make Dry January easier to sustain.
The implied probabilities don’t predict individual behavior. They show how supportive the environment is before willpower comes into play.
No state makes Dry January easy. But some states give you a better shot than others.
Methodology
What this index measures
- The Dry January Completion Odds Index estimates how likely the average adult in each U.S. state is to complete Dry January through February 1.
- This is not a survey
- It does not track individual participation or personal success
- It measures how supportive or challenging a state’s environment is for staying alcohol-free in January
What data was used
- Adult binge drinking rates
- Physical activity prevalence (used as a self-regulation signal)
- Adult smoking prevalence (used as a proxy for addictive behavior)
- Average January temperatures
- The share of adults who do not drink alcohol in major cities
How states were scored
- All metrics were standardized to a 0–100 scale so states could be compared fairly
- Metrics where higher values make Dry January harder (such as binge drinking or smoking) were inverted
- Higher final scores always indicate easier completion conditions
How odds were calculated
- Each state’s final score was converted into an implied probability, expressed as a percentage
- Implied probability reflects how often an outcome is expected to occur relative to others
- Those probabilities were then translated into American betting odds, using the same format found on Vegas Insider
How to read the results
- Higher implied probability = Dry January is easier to complete in that state
- Lower implied probability = Dry January is more difficult
- The index compares environmental difficulty, not personal discipline
- Individual outcomes will always vary
Data Sources
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data on binge drinking, smoking, and physical activity. - Statista
Compiled state-level health and alcohol behavior datasets sourced from the CDC. - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Statewide average January temperature data. - U.S. Census–based city analyses
Used to estimate non-drinker share in major cities and aggregate results to the state level. - Vegas Insider analysis
Data normalization, weighting, implied probability calibration, and odds conversion.
Full Dataset
The complete state-by-state dataset used for this report is available here: Dry January Completion Odds 2026 — Full Dataset .
Note: The dataset includes each state’s final score, implied probability, American odds format, and ranking.