The U.S. Airports Most Likely to See Flight Disruptions This Spring Break

Kathy Morris Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Spring break is one of the busiest travel periods of the year, and not all airports handle the rush equally. Some airports are far more likely than others to experience delays or cancellations.

To find out which airports have the highest odds of flight disruptions we combined historical flight performance data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics with live FAA airport signals.

Here are the top 10 U.S. airports travelers should watch this spring break.

Key Takeaways

• San Diego International tops the rankings with a 71.1% implied probability of delays or cancellations (-245 odds).
• Three Texas airports (DFW, DAL, and AUS) make the top 10.
• Some of the busiest airports in the country rank near the top, including Dallas/Fort Worth, Chicago O’Hare, and LaGuardia. High flight volume and complex airspace mean small disruptions can cascade into widespread delays.

The 10 US Airports With Highest Likelihood Of Delays

1. San Diego International (SAN), San Diego, CA

Implied Disruption Probability: 71.1% (-245 American odds)

San Diego tops the disruption list this spring break with the highest implied probability of flight disruption at 71.1%. Active FAA closures at the airport, combined with historically high delays, make SAN the riskiest U.S. airport in the analysis. Travelers should plan extra time and monitor gate changes closely

2. Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Implied Disruption Probability: 67.3% (-206 American odds)

Handling more than 25,000 flights in the dataset, DFW is one of the nation’s busiest hubs. High historical delays and cancellations place it near the top of the spring break disruption rankings. Early morning flights tend to perform best. Travelers at DFW face 67.3% probability of flight delays this spring break.

3. Dallas Love Field (DAL), Dallas, Texas

Implied Disruption Probability: 61.1% (-157 American odds)

Love Field’s relatively high cancellation rate, combined with spring travel demand, gives DAL a spot in the top five. Travelers may consider alternative airports if timing is tight.

4. LaGuardia (LGA), JFK, New York City, NY

Implied Disruption Probability: 60.9% (-156 American odds)

New York’s heavy traffic and complex airspace contribute to its consistent disruption risk. LaGuardia, in particular, ranks among the top airports for delays in the country. Flying early in the day may help avoid the worst congestion.

5. O’Hare International (ORD), Chicago, Il

Implied Disruption Probability: 60.2% (-151 American odds)

ORD faces high historical cancellations, and winter weather can still impact flight performance in early spring. Travelers connecting through Chicago should allow extra time between flights.

6. Palm Beach International (PBI), West Palm Beach / Palm Beach, Fl

Implied Disruption Probability: 58.8% (-143 American odds)

South Florida airports can be strained during spring break travel. PBI ranks high due to frequent delays even without an active FAA event.

7. Newark Liberty International (EWR), Newark, NJ

Implied Disruption Probability: 58.7% (-142 American odds)

High historical cancellations and heavy New York metro traffic contribute to consistent disruption risk at Newark. Travelers are advised to check flight status frequently.

8. Harry Reid International (LAS), Las Vegas, NV

Implied Disruption Probability: 56.8% (-132 American odds)

Las Vegas is a major spring break destination, and a live FAA event at the airport pushes disruption risk even higher. Weekend arrivals and departures can be particularly busy.

9. Austin-Bergstrom International (AUS), Austin, TX

Implied Disruption Probability: 54.5% (-120 American odds)

Austin’s growing airport traffic combined with historical delays makes AUS a top-risk airport during peak travel windows. Early morning departures are usually more reliable.

10. McGhee Tyson Airport (TYS), Knoxville, TN

Implied Disruption Probability: 54% (-117 American odds)

Even smaller airports like Knoxville face elevated disruption risk due to historical delays. Travelers connecting through TYS should keep an eye on flight updates.

Flight Disruption Odds Are High

Spring break travel in the U.S. is full of excitement, but also potential delays. Our analysis highlights that even some smaller airports can experience significant disruption, while major hubs face challenges due to sheer flight volume and complex airspace.

Travelers flying through Texas should pay special attention, as airports in this states dominate the top-risk rankings. High historical delays, frequent cancellations, and active FAA events all contribute to elevated odds of disruption.

If you're stuck at a San Diego or Texas airport, feel free to check out this BetMGM bonus code. BetMGM currently has the OKC Thunder at +140 for the NBA finals.

Methodology

This model estimates which U.S. airports, cities, and states are most at risk for flight delays or cancellations during the March spring-break period.

Data Sources:

Historical flights: Bureau of Transportation Statistics data on delays, cancellations, and average delay minutes.

Live airport events: FAA active-event feed showing real-time disruptions.

Delay Score: Weighted score of historical departure/arrival delays, average delay minutes, and current FAA events.

Cancellation Score: Weighted score of historical cancellation rates, plus delays and FAA events.

Overall implied probability of disruption: Delay and cancellation probabilities are combined using a log-odds model (65% delay, 35% cancellation) and converted into implied probabilities and American-style odds.

You can see the full dataset here.

Note: These are estimated odds, not official forecasts.

Sources: BTS On-Time Performance data & FAA live airport feed.

Kathy Morris

Kathy is Digital PR Specialist at VegasInsider where she creates fun, data based content. Her research has been featured by the WSJ, FastCompany, Cornell, the LATimes, and more. She lives in St. Louis, MO, home of the worst pizza and the best baseball team. She spends her free time building data visualizations, reading, and hoping this year the Cards make it far enough she gets to wear her Cardinals’ sweatshirt More from Kathy Morris