Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

Our VI PGA handicapping experts have compiled their best bets for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is set to take place on Thursday, March 3 and ends on Sunday, March 6 at the Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida.

ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL PICKS

• Kevin Na (+105) over Billy Horschel
• Lucas Glover Top 40 Finish (+140)
• Tom Hoge Top 40 Finish (+110)

KEVIN NA (+105) VS. BILLY HORSCHEL

The PGA Tour's Florida swing continues after Austria's Sepp Straka picked up a win at The Honda Classic last weekend. Now, the tour stops at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Fla., with Bryson DeChambeau as the defending champ. This course measures at 7,454 yards and Par 72. The areas to target here are Greens In Regulation (GIR) and Strokes Gained: Approach, as well as SG: Off-the-Tee. Putting is also a very important area of focus, as is Par 5 Scoring Average.

For the tournament matchup, Na is a strong play over Horschel. Na ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in Par 5 Scoring Average (4.43), tied for Horschel, actually. The difference here is in SG: Approach, as Na ranks 61st in 16 measured rounds at .241, while Horschel is 176th in the category at -.349. Horschel is a little bit better in the putting department, but Na has the slight edge in GIR.

Last season, Na made the cut while finishing 43rd, while Horschel missed the cut. Oddly enough, the two tied for 36th in 2020 at this event, and Na has drawn even or outperformed Horschel at this event in three of the past four years. It will be close, but Na gets the nod.

LUCAS GLOVER TOP 40 FINISH (+140)

Glover is a strong play at plus-money for a Top 40 finish. He checks off all the boxes for potential success at Bay Hill, including a third-place ranking in GIR (75.68%) across 32 measured rounds and 666 holes.

In addition, Glover is 22nd in SG: Approach-the-Green (.576), while also checking in ninth on the Tour in Driving Accuracy Percentage (68.91%), hitting 359 of a possible 521 fairways. While he is a subpar putter, while ranking 83rd in Par 5 Scoring Average (4.58), he measures well with 163 total birdies and a 4.41 Birdie Average which will serve him well.

He made the cut last season at Bay Hill, but tumbled to a 66th-place showing with a final-round 5-over 77. He was en route to a strong finish prior to the collapse. Glover posted a 10th-place finish here in 2019, including a sizzling 3-under 69 in the final round that season, and he tore it up with a seventh-place showing in 2017, so the potential is there for big things despite his putting woes.

TOM HOGE TOP 40 FINISH (+110) 

Playing it safe, look to Hoge for a Top 40 finish, too, at plus-money.

The winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has yo-yoed lately. While he has four finished of 14th or higher, including three Top 5 finishes in the past seven events, he also has three missed cuts during the span.

Hoge should have some tremendous success at Bay Hill this weekend, as he ranks third in SG: Approach. He is also 20th in Scoring Average (69.932), while checking in 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 22nd in SG: Total. He is also a respectable 48th in Par 5 Scoring Average at 4.53, While he was 52nd at Bay Hill last season, he was 15th in 2020, and he might have been better if not for a 4-over 76 in Round 3 and 3-over 75 in the Final Round. He was also 26th at this event in his previous showing in 2018.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish